Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

You know the expression "out of sight, out of mind?" It certainly applies in fantasy hockey, as with all the focus on playoff teams, those on squads who didn't make the NHL's second season are often put on the back burner. But winning in fantasy hockey means putting in the necessary attention all 12 months of the year, and that includes on teams whose offseasons started earlier than others. With all that in mind, for this edition I'm covering Kirill Kaprizov, Mike Matheson, and Nico Hischier, each of whom is on a team that finished on the outside looking in when it came to the NHL playoffs. Despite not having seen them play in weeks, can you still pinpoint which one had a 2023-24 that was too hot, versus too cold, versus just right? Lock in your guesses then continue reading to find out if you still have the 2023-24 regular season on the forefront of your mind enough to get all three correct.

Kirill Kaprizov (75 GP, 46 G, 50 A, 277 SOG, 21:35 TOI, 41 PPPts, 4:10 PP, 73.0% PP%)

Drafted in the fifth round in 2015, Kaprizov proceeded to thrive in the KHL, making the Wild and fantasy owners alike eager with anticipation for when he'd finally arrive in the NHL. That came in the 2020-21 season, where Kaprizov hit the ground running to the tune of 51 points in 55 games. He then showed what all the hype was about by tallying 108 points in 2021-22, leading many to consider him already among the NHL's superstars. A hiccup of just 75 points in 67 contests for the 2021-22 campaign though had many pumping the brakes. Yet 2023-24 showed that Kaprizov is indeed for real, as he nearly matched his 2021-22 scoring pace. But is that his ceiling, or could Kaprizov rise to even greater heights? From the looks of it, he might still have room to do even better.

The 2023-24 season was the tale of two halves for Kaprizov, as he managed just 35 points in 36 first half games, with 12 of those points being goals, on 120 SOG, and 16 of those points coming on the man advantage. Those rates clearly were not reflective of his true talent, and as such few were surprised when he did much better in the second half. But just how much better was quite jaw dropping, with 33 goals and 61 points in 39 games, with 157 SOG and 25 PPPts. Projecting those numbers to a full season, that'd be a scoring rate of better than 120 points, with over 50 PPPts and over four SOG per game, but a SH% of 21%.

The question thus becomes, was Kaprizov simply too cold in the first half and too hot in the second? The inclination would be to label 2023-24 as a more roundabout way to him arriving at the same scoring rate as 2021-22. Looking closer, a lot differed this season versus 2021-22. First, Kaprizov was playing mostly with Joel Eriksson Ek, who is a lot more talented than Ryan Hartman, his primary center in 2021-22. Also, Kaprizov took the ice for 2:29 more per game in 2023-24 than 2021-22, with no added SH duty and nearly a minute more on the PP. By the same token, his 5×5 team SH% and OZ% for both seasons were virtually identical. Still, him being able to maintain those numbers despite ice time that did not see his team shoot better while he was on the ice is no easy feat and likely signifies that, if anything, his second half numbers might be more representative.

Another key is that Kaprizov's PP IPP was identical to what it was in 2021-22, as was his secondary assist rate and his individual SH%. His overall IPP was actually down from 80.0% to 70.6%. This is not surprising given Eriksson Ek being comparably more talented than Hartman. Still, it was Kaprizov's lowest overall IPP, and yet he still had that monstrous second half. How can that be explained?

What's key is Eriksson Ek did not become Kaprizov's most frequent center until the second quarter, so his sluggish first quarter was when he was with Hartman again, such that by the time they found their groove, Kaprizov thrived. With their chemistry now firmly in place, one should expect them not only to take the ice together in 2024-25, but for them not to need a learning curve quarter like they did in Q2 of 2023-24.

What about player comparables? Kaprizov is a bit of an oddity, in that although he's only been in the league for four seasons, he played this past season at age 26. Let's see what the comparables have to say both in terms of number of seasons and age. Going back to 2000-01, only one other winger averaged 0.55+ goals per game in 250+ games during their first four NHL seasons, and that was Alex Ovechkin. If we go by age instead, though, and see the same data for those at any stage of their career but ages 23-26, the most recent players to meet the criteria were David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, and Ovi.

Sounds great, yes? Maybe not. All three had a much more talented center than anyone with whom Kaprizov has taken the ice. And Pasta actually has done even better without as much talent surrounding him. Could it be that when the Wild emerge from cap hell for 2025-26 Kaprizov will be paired with an elite center but lose points overall? It is possible; however, that like the Bs with Pasta, the Wild know that Kaprizov can carry things, so they'll likely put their newfound dollars to other uses than a center to slot on his line, in turn leaving an overall low risk of points being syphoned away from Kaprizov, ala Pasta.

Given what we saw in the second half, and the totality of the data and comparables, it's safe to say that Kaprizov is indeed one of the more elite players in the league. He might not be as much of a sniper as vintage Ovi, but he could become to the Wild what David Pastrnak is to the Bruins. As such, Kaprizov's 2023-24 was TOO COLD and I'd expect that future seasons will see him produce 110-115+ points, with a better shot at more than 115+ versus fewer than 105. As such, he gets a rating of 3.0.

Mike Matheson (82 GP, 11 G, 51 A, 187 SOG, 25:33 TOI, 28 PPPts, 3:41 PP, 72.0% PP%)

Grabbed 23rd overall in 2012 by Florida, Matheson didn't become an NHL regular until four seasons later. And his first season saw him post just 17 points. Still, the Panthers clearly liked what they saw, as they inked Matheson to an eight-year deal right as his second full season was commencing. If that was supposed to light a fire under him though, it didn't, as he failed to produce at more than a 30-point pace that season or his next two with Florida, and it earned him a ticket to Pittsburgh, where it was further disappointment. By the time he got to Montreal in 2022-23, expectations were about as low as they could be. Yet lo and behold Matheson thrived, scoring at a 58-point pace. But skeptics said he did that in only 48 games and said wait and see how he fares over an entire season. Well, how he fared was even better, to the tune of 62 points. With Matheson's upward trajectory continue? Not only won't that occur, but expectations should be lowered.

In looking at Matheson's metrics, the one that stands out the most – and definitely not in a good way – is his 42.2% offensive zone starting percentage. To put that in perspective, he had a 1.8 points per 60-minute scoring rate, which was 15th best among all d-men who played 40+ games. But of those ahead of him, the lowest OZ% was 50.9%, with everyone else being at least ten percentage points higher, and a whopping ten of the 14 being at least 15 percentage points higher. In fact, the next highest points per 60 rate of a d-man who had a lower OZ% was 1.2, or a third less than Matheson.

On top of that, his team shot only 7.9% at 5×5 while he was on the ice. Yet again all of the other 14 ahead of him in points per 60 had a higher rate, although in this case some who were in the top 50 had a lower rate, so it's less glaring. To be lower than all those ahead of him when it comes to this metric as well, is troublesome.

The question then becomes – how can this be explained? In a nutshell, Matheson's very high IPPs. Matheson's overall IPP was 54.8%, and on the PP it was a whopping 71.8%. Of the 14 rearguards who finished ahead of him in points per 60 minutes, only Shea Theodore had both a higher overall IPP and IPP on the PP. How did Matheson's IPP get so high? Probably because his team lacked major scorers, especially when it came to the PP. The problem, as shown by those ahead of him, is his IPPs likely have only one way to go and that is down. Yes, his OZ% probably is more apt to increase than drop further; but it could hold steady, as he sees a lot of PK time and is the team's top d-man.

Yes, Matheson's IPPs have been climbing the past two seasons, making them seem all the more legitimate. But there is only so high they can go, as demonstrated by them being higher than those of even better rearguard scorers. Also, a PP IPP of 71.8% for a d-man is very high, as only the super talented Quinn Hughes had both a higher PP IPP and more PPPts, suggesting that what Matheson did was indeed unsustainable, especially with Lane Hutson, being added to the mix, and him perhaps being the Shane Gostisbehere to Matheson's Moritz Seider, by which I mean Hutson being given easier minutes and better PP deployment while Matheson, who has a demonstrated well rounded game, is forced into minutes less conductive to scoring. Oh, and what was Seider's OZ%? An even lower 38.7%.

The other key is some of the younger Montreal talent is still improving, as Cole Caufield's combined IPPs add up to barely more than Matheson's and Juraj Slafkovsky's were several percentage points less, with both having lower PP IPPs. That won't continue to occur. Also, Matheson fired nearly a third of his total SOG on the PP, and almost three per every four games played, up from barely one every two games for 2022-23. For Matheson, who only averages 2.28 SOG per game, to have over 50 SOG is not realistic, as the other five defensemen who took 50+ PP SOG in 2023-24 collectively averaged 2.88 SOG per game.  Matheson's PP success is both unlikely to be replicated in general, but also due to Montreal forwards upping their PP scoring.

On top of all this, Matheson's secondary assist percentage, although not per se high for a defenseman, represented a jump from 30.8% to 52.9%. As such, it is unlikely to rise even more, and could in fact fall. Beyond that, Matheson's best quarter for 2023-24 was Q4 when he tallied 19 points in 21 games. Yet in doing so he failed to average even 2 SOG per game, and posted his lowest SOG rate for any quarter in the past two seasons, which is when his scoring has risen. To have one's most productive quarter coincide with when one shot the least is not encouraging.

If 2023-24 was to play out again in 2024-25 exactly as it did, I'd say Matheson would have a good shot at 55 points or so despite many of his metrics being too high. But 2024-25 should be an entirely different story, with Lane Hutson in the mix and likely having to be coddled and featured prominently on the PP, plus the younger Montreal forwards continuing to make strides, and, in doing so, likely syphoning points away from Matheson. Add to that at least some of Matheson's metrics indeed coming back to earth just in the normal course, and it's safe to say his 2023-24 was TOO HOT. I give him a rating of 8.75, as I fear he will drop to closer to a 50-point rate. If you can sell high, you should consider it.

Nico Hischier (71 GP, 27 G, 40 A, 182 SOG, 19:29 TOI, 17 PPPts, 3:26 PP, 68.7% PP%)

Selected first overall, the Swiss forward predictably was in the NHL that same season. And he fared pretty well, with 52 points. The issue was he then got stuck in neutral the next two seasons and then barely managed a point per every other game in 2020-21. Yet just when poolies were starting to throw about the "b" word, Hischier connected the dots and scored at a 70-point rate in 2021-22, then upped the ante to 80 points in 81 games in 2022-23. For 2023-24, he slipped a bit, yet still landed at a 77-point pace. Can Hischier, who's still only 25, find another gear? Unlikely; however, he looks to be a good bet to stay as productive as he's been the last two seasons.

It stood out when Hischier, who had averaged 2.1-2.3 SOG every prior season, saw his SOG rate jump to 3.2 in 2022-23. Yet he still had a SH% of 12.1%, which was right at his career average. Any hopes of that becoming his new normal though were dashed when his rate slid back to 2.6 this season. Although that is still a good bit above his prior rates, it's not the level you want to see if you're hoping for point per game or better output. That's because of the 185 instances, dating back to 2000-21, of a center playing 65+ games in a season while producing at a point per game or better rate, more than half averaged three or more SOG per game, and of the 50 who did so despite a lower SOG rate than Hischier's 2.6 this season, only a little over a third occurred in the last ten seasons, meaning that for a center to be a point per game player in today's NHL, by and large they need to shoot more than Hischier has proven himself capable of shooting. That having been said, he did average over three SOG in the second half when he scored 45 points in 41 games; however, in doing so he had ten of his 17 PPPts, which bring us to the next topic of conversation.

Hischier, simply put, is not productive on the PP. He has yet to ever average even one PPT per every four games in any of his seasons. In fact, despite receiving the 21st most PP time collectively among all centers over the past two seasons, his cumulative PPPt total ranks him only 37th. But perhaps of even more concern is that of those 185 instances referenced above, only a mere five managed to reach the point per game mark without averaging one or more PPPt per every four games.

But wait – can't Hischier still improve when it comes to the PP, as he has in terms of SOG rate? Never say never; however, as his PP time per game has risen, his PP IPP has shrunk, from 66.7%, to 571.5, to 52.2%, to 48.7%, to 47.2% this season. To put that in better perspective, of the 84 forwards who had more PPPts than Hischier for the 2023-24 season, a mere seven did so despite a lower PP IPP. And other than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, none tallied more than 20 PPPts. Basically, as Hischier has become featured more prominently on PP1, his PP production rate has not risen, as he is not found a way to factor into man advantage scoring when he's playing alongside the best of the best on his team.

In terms of Hischier's other metrics, his OZ% has actually been creeping upward, and for 2023-24 was nearly 50%. In view of his two-way role, and the need for Jack Hughes to be given all the best chances to produce, there is a realistic ceiling in terms of Hischier's OZ%, and he is either at it already or approaching it. And although his secondary assists have stayed at or near the same reasonable rate, this season his 5×5 team SH% was 10.8%, which was the only time he'd been in double digits since he was a rookie. Plus, his team's 5×5 SH% has been on the rise for three straight seasons even as his PP IPP has dropped. Hischier might indeed be a significant talent at 5×5. Yet his team 5×5 SH% can only increase so much, and is far more likely to drop than to rise further, such that point per game scoring is not looking like it's in the cards.

No question Hischier hasn't lived up to being a #1 overall pick; however, he looks to have settled into a pattern of just below point per game scoring. And with him not showing much skill on the PP, but shooting a bit more, and scoring well at ES, he probably is a safe bet to keep chugging along just below the point per game level. As such, his 2023-24 was JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.5. It is possible that if the Devils ultimately become a powerhouse team that he'll fare better in the process; but I see him as a somewhat better version of David Krejci in that he's unlikely to ever be a #1 pivot but will still do quite well for his team and fantasy owners.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.