I fully realize we're more than a month away from the start of free agency; but the question of how well the upcoming UFAs end up faring will be far more impactful on next season than what is yet to unfold in the playoffs. And if recent seasons are indications, many UFAs will turn out to be duds. But who will be the biggest disappointments? Let's find out by your votes!

When considering who should choose, keep in mind that "disappointment" in this case means scoring, as I opted not to include goalies as choices. If a player ends up providing intangible value, leadership, and/or multi-cat stat stuffing, that should not be factored into your voting. It's purely about points versus expectations, plus, of course, cost.

Given these factors, disappointment has to be assessed on a relative/comparative basis. It is quite possible that a player who makes less still could be more of a disappointment if his scoring fell far below that of someone more highly paid who produce less farther below expectations. In short, when casting your votes, consider what each player will stand to be paid (here's a link to Alex MacLean's hot off the presses Free Agent salary estimates which just went live last week, and which, it should be noted, also includes RFAs, so if you don't see a player on here who is listed there, that is likely why) versus how well you project he'll end up producing. Yes, I realize that performance can and will vary based on the team for where each player signs, but try your best to consider it now. Lastly, this is solely about 2024-25; so if a player signs a deal which is all but assured to lead to him being a disappointment down the road, that doesn't matter. All you should be focused upon is what these players will do in 2024-25.

What follows are the 20 players – in alphabetical order and with Alex's salary projection – I see as having the greatest chances of being the biggest disappointments versus what they're likely to be paid and how they'll be projected to produce in terms of scoring. Your task is to vote for the five you think will end up being the worst values when factoring everything in the equation. A link to cast your votes will be at the end of the column.

Tyler Bertuzzi ($4.83M)

One of three Leafs to be on themselves for 2023-24 with one-year UFA deals, Bertuzzi was terrible until he ended with 21 points in his last 26 games. Was that a sign he'd righted his ship, or was he simply upping the effort level to make sure he could earn another deal? Tough to say, although after seeing his scoring rate increase five seasons in a row, it's dropped each of the past two. Still, with that occurring, expectations have been lowered, making it more difficult to envision him falling shorter of expectations more so than five others on this list.

Jake DeBrusk ($3.66M)

It seems like ages we've been awaiting DeBrusk's exodus from Boston, where he was not often used as a primary offensive weapon. That likely will keep expectations low; however, he will still need to show he had more to offer than what we've seen so far in order to justify his price tag.

Max Domi ($3.67M)

On his sixth (!) team in the past four seasons, Domi performed similarly to Bertuzzi in that he was sputtering but caught fire at the end of the season, in his case to the tune of 15 points in his last 17 games played. That, in turn, raises the same questions as it did with Bertuzzi, namely was this Domi reconnecting the dots, or just trying harder so as to ensure another payday? As with Bertuzzi though, is Domi a risk to disappoint more so than five others? Tough to say.

Matt Duchene ($4.04M)

Hey – it's a contract year, and Duchene played well? In other equally unsurprising news, water is wet. Betting on himself in the form of a one-year deal, Duchene thrived. But Dallas may have been the perfect fit for him, such that it he goes elsewhere he might struggle to get the same great opportunities. But hey – if he signs another one year deal, I sure as heck won't be betting against him.

Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.31M)

Is he as one-dimensional as a d-man can be? Yes; but that dimension is an important one which usually has suitors, even if it means sheltering Ghost and playing him mostly on the PP. Chances are he can find success on a team if it knows what he is and how to use him; but if that doesn't happen then it's a situation ripe for disaster, as occurred in 2019-20

Jake Guentzel ($9.72M)

The prize of this UFA class, Guentzel still arguably needs to prove he's more than just a right place, right time talent. No question wherever he ends up he'll be given ample opportunities to succeed. With this being only about 2024-25, he likely will have more than enough left in his tank to produce well. But well enough to justify a likely $10M per year payday? Maybe not.

Patrick Kane ($3.27M)

After undergoing a procedure that had previously left a trail of former talents who either never played again or if they did were a shell of their former selves, Kane did pretty darn well. But that was for barely more than half a season's worth of games. At his age and in view of what he went through, can he stand up to the rigors of a full season, let alone produce? Hard to say.

Elias Lindholm ($5.07M)

It seems like a lot longer ago than 2021-22 that Lindholm was part of arguably the best line in all of hockey, although even then his output lagged well behind that of linemates Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. Since then – and even beforehand – he's been a good but not great player. But he checks enough boxes to likely earn a decent amount. Whether he can produce in line with expectations though, that is unclear at best.

Anthony Mantha ($4.48M)

Once thought to be on the fast track to stardom, Mantha's production dropped, rebounded somewhat, then really dropped, but rebounded somewhat again this season. If all he is now is a 50ish point player though, will he be worth what he's poised to be paid? Iffy.

Jonathan Marchessault ($4.38M)

One of the last OG Knights, Marchessault has produced at a 65-75 point pace in three of the past four seasons. Although he'll turn 34 during this coming campaign, the type of game he plays seemingly positions him to succeed for a while longer. It's difficult for me to envision a scenario where he disappoints; but perhaps away from Vegas – if he doesn't re-sign – he might falter.

Sean Monahan ($4.26M)

After going from making over $6M on a long term deal to under $2M in 2023-24, Monahan could have opted to fade into the sunset. But instead he rebounded, playing well for both the Habs and Jets. He might just have a successful second act to his career……or fall flat again.

Brandon Montour ($6.85M)

After what he did in 2022-23, Montour was destined to get paid. Even though his stats for 2023-24 weren't nearly as great, that was mostly due to him coming in midseason, as by the end of the campaign he was back in full swing. Still, it wouldn't be unfathomable for Montour to ease off the gas pedal after getting paid, as he does lack a long track record of sustained success.

Joe Pavelski ($3.59M)

If Dallas wins the Cup, I'm guessing Little Joe will call it a career. But if not, despite his stats really nosediving in 2023-24 and him turning 40, he might opt to give it another go for at least one season, and the Stars probably would have him back. If he gets paid close to what Alex foresees, yet sees his role shrink, will he be even close to worth it in terms of production, and not factoring in his veteran presence and leadership?

Sam Reinhart ($8.81M)

This year's most likely poster boy for inflated UFA-to-be stats. But truth be told, Reinhart had started to pick up steam in Q4 of 2023-23; so much of what we saw in 2023-24 might be for real. But at the price tag he'll command, he'll need to not see his production decline very much, and that could prove difficult.

Brady Skjei ($5.50M)

This deal likely will earn Skjei a chance to be a true #1 rearguard. And from what we've seen he appears ready to step up. He'll need to do more than he's been done so far, and who knows if he'll fold under increased pressure of being a "the guy" player for the first time in his career.

Steven Stamkos ($5.13M)

Surprisingly not yet re-upped by the Bolts, we could see Stamkos pull a Modano or Alfredsson and finish out his career elsewhere. If so, he'll have a tough time replicating the level of success he achieved in Tampa, and might be looked upon more in terms of providing value in ways not as directly linked to production.

Chandler Stephenson ($5.56M)

Always good, but never great, Stephenson is definitely going to get his biggest payday. But with that will be expectations of increased production. Can he be up to the task? Perhaps, or he could fail when looked upon as a primary producer rather than merely a member of the supporting cast.

Vladimir Tarasenko ($5.64M)

It's hard to believe Tarasenko produced at a 90 point pace just two seasons ago. Since then he's come back to earth in a big way. But he will find no shortage of suitors, and with what he'll be paid and his prior success, he'll be given every opportunity to thrive. But will that be enough to lead him to do well, or did he use up all his magic in 2021-22?

Teuvo Teravainen ($3.97M)

Although he'll have just turned 30 when next season begins, Teravainen will be five seasons removed from his back to back stellar campaigns. Keep in mind that Carolina throttles the ices times of its bet players, so if he goes to a team and gets more TOI he might just be able to show he has gas left in the tank.

Tyler Toffoli ($3.41M)

With stints on six teams in the past five seasons, Toffoli saw his production rise, then fall, then rise again. If this trend continues, 2024-25 will be an up year. However, the question becomes whether he will get lost in the shuffle, or settle into more of a middle-six role in a new situation.

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If you haven't already made up your minds, now is the time to go back and land on the five players you feel are most likely to disappoint in 2024-25 given what they stand to be paid and the expectations that will come with their new deals. Remember, it's relative – that is, you want to pick the five biggest disappointments, not necessarily the five who'll score the least, since for some that would be less disappointing than for others. Click here to cast your votes.

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Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag column runs next week and I have room to answer more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.