Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades – Dallas Stars
Alexander MacLean
2024-08-14
For the last 21 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber and the team have reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.
The 22nd annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what we take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.
Enjoy!
Gone – Joe Pavelski, Craig Smith, Radek Faksa, Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpaa, Ty Dellandrea, Chris Tanev, Scott Wedgewood
Incoming – Colin Blackwell, Ilya Lyubushkin, Mathew Dumba, Casey DeSmith
Impact of changes –
Aside from Pavelski retiring, the ins and outs here are all like for like, at similar skills and production levels, nearly all for the bottom-half of the roster. That means the top half of the roster that was a top team in the Western Conference as well as a legitimate Cup threat, is still intact. All in all, treat the Stars similarly to how you had them ranked at the end of last year.
Digging a little deeper though, how much of a difference do the departures of Chris Tanev and Pavelski make?
In Pavelski's case, the internal growth of Wyatt Johnston taking his place on the top line and top power play, with Logan Stankoven and Mavrik Bourque also being bumped up the lineup mean that he likely won't be missed much at all as far as production goes. Pavelski spent the majority of his time the last few seasons alongside Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, but Johnston actually fared much better with the pair last year, in terms of both Corsi and scoring rates.
Tanev was a deadline acquisition, so the Stars only had him for a quarter of the 2023-24 season anyways. He formed an excellent shutdown pairing with Esa Lindell, but could be replaced by Lyubushkin who plays a similar game. Thomas Harley's emergence as a top-pairing defenceman alongside Miro Heiskanen means that the top-four is relatively set, with Dumba and Nils Lundqvist to carry third-pairing minutes. Overall, close to status quo here as well.
Ready for Full Time –
As mentioned above, the expectation is that Stankoven and Bourque will move up the lineup, likely holding spots on the second line and in the bottom-six respectively.
Stankoven was extremely impressive in 24 games last season, recording 14 points as well as two shots and one hit per game – all of that on top of sizzling Corsi and expected goals percentages. He will likely be lining up alongside Jamie Benn again, who finished the season with 24 points in 19 games after Stankoven became his most frequent linemate.
Bourque only played one NHL game last season, but after putting up 77 points in 71 AHL games, he has nothing left to prove at that level, and makes for a natural graduate to help the Stars maintain their three scoring lines. His one game saw him lined up alongside Benn and Stankoven, though it may be more likely that we see Matt Duchene centre that duo, leaving Bourque in a more sheltered role to start.
Fantasy Outlook:
The Stars have everything you could want in a team from which you want to stack a few players on your fantasy team. They have the high-scoring all-stars in Robertson and Hintz, to go along with veterans who will give you more bang for your draft capital than most others just because they aren't the sexy new names anymore in Benn, Duchene, and Tyler Seguin. The Stars also have youngsters in Johnston, Bourque, and Stankoven, nicely blended into the roster, with the whole forward core covering a whole range of styles to fit any kind of fantasy league. Add Mason Marchment to that list and it could be the best forward core in the league, even after losing Pavelski.
On defence, the smooth-skating Heiskanen paired with the blossoming Harley is a tandem to be envious of, and even getting one half of it on your fantasy team is one less thing to worry about for the remainder of the season. Between the two of them they could easily surpass 130 points to go along with shot volume and solid peripherals numbers.
In net, Jake Oettinger's floor was likely what we saw last season, and he should probably be a top-five goalie drafted in any standard league. Casey DeSmith's addition should support him without adding any kind of pressure of a goalie controversy, with a likely ratio of 55/25 for starts between the two – favouring Oettinger of course. DeSmith could be a little less reliable than Wedgewood as he joins a new system, but regardless the wins should still be there.
Grade – A- (last year was a B+)
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“the internal growth of Wyatt Johnston taking his place on the top line and top power play”
In the guide it has Duchene on the top line and Johnston on the second line with Benn and Stankoven. I think you’re right that he’ll just take Pavelski’s spot.