Ramblings: Bubble Keeper Week and Fiala, Raymond, Bertuzzi, Coleman, Matheson, Byram, and More – August 15
Michael Clifford
2024-08-15
Bubble keeper week rolls on here at Dobber Hockey. We are helping readers get to the bottom of their keeper decisions at the end of their roster. These are the decisions that can make or break fantasy seasons because it's getting the 8th-round value performing as a top-30 fantasy option that helps put rosters over the top.
On Tuesday, I answered a couple questions submitted from Twitter. Today, there are five more questions covering nearly 20 different players, and that's why these types of questions can be valuable for a lot of fantasy managers beyond those asking the questions. Let's get to it.
We are starting with a couple of wingers, one on the rise and one already at his peak:
It is funny how hockey works, because Fiala has been a favourite of mine for several years now, while I used to be someone who thought Raymond was an overrated prospect. Fiala is still a favourite of mine, but I've come around a lot on Raymond. It wasn't just his 72-point season, though that helps.
What helped Raymond was him taking legitimate strides in his underlying process. Back in May, I wrote about Detroit's season and two things were noted: Raymond wasn't wasting his chances to find teammates for dangerous shots, and he was carrying the puck into the zone at a very high rate. He has started driving the offence for his line mates, rather than relying on Dylan Larkin, and it is the step forward we needed to see from him. Also, from that piece in May, I noted that Raymond skated nearly 19 minutes a game over the team's final 20 games as they pushed for a playoff spot. I am assuming Raymond is over 19 minutes a game in 2024-25 and has turned a corner from a productive third wheel to a heavily-used goal-driver.
Much like Raymond, Fiala was used heavily down the stretch as the Kings were trying to hang onto their playoff spot. I really do like Fiala, and he's still just 28 years old and has been just shy of a point-per-game played across the last three seasons. The problem is that Los Angeles is a team focused on point shots and forechecking rather than playing fast off the rush or creating turnovers. That kind of puts a cap on Fiala's upside and while he should get to 70-plus points against, so should Raymond, and one of those guys is just starting to enter his prime as the other gets to the end of his.
In a straight points league, I'm keeping Raymond. They're too similar to really differentiate, so I'll lean to the younger player.
Alright, let's get to a question that is truly and end-of-the-roster decision:
This is one where knowing the other keepers would be important. If there is just one goalie kept, I would probably keep Allen just because of how deep the league is.
Other than that, I think we can let Benoit go. I get it, he provides a ton of hits, a lot of PIMs, and a good amount of blocks. I have no problem keeping him for those reasons, but he is also a complete black hole elsewhere. Being a big positive in a few categories is great, but if that player is also a net negative in every other category, it doesn't really help the overall value of that player.
I also am letting Perron go. When he was healthy, he was a very good player. That time has passed, though. Ottawa might not be a good team, but the one thing they have is a plethora of forwards that will be ahead of Perron on the depth chart, and there's no reason to think he'll out-produce Blake Coleman in a multi-cat format. Even if their hits are similar, and Perron produces 6-8 more points, Coleman is likely going to have the edge in a lot of other categories.
To me, this is between Coleman and Rickard Rakell. I do like Rakell and think there's a rebound here, but I worry he's lost his top PP role to Michael Bunting. Rakell was stapled to the second PP unit down the stretch last season and while he likely gets some top PP time through the season, it's not going to be a permanent spot for him. To me, he's a 50-point player now, not someone who will push past 60 points. His hits will help, but that's about the only spot where he'll contribute significant peripherals.
I will lean Coleman here. Not that I'm a big fan of his, but he can be a 20-goal, 40-point winger with very good PIMs, hit, and shot totals while contributing to areas like short-handed points, takeaways, and so on. Rakell was the PP edge, but Coleman has the SHP edge, and has the advantage in a few extra peripheral categories. I'll lean Coleman, but it's definitely between him and Rakell for me, assuming there aren't positional needs elsewhere given the other players kept.
Now, we get to one that seems pretty easy to me:
I like Hendrix Lapierre as a real-life NHL player, but Washington went out to get Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, Brandon Duhaime, and Taylor Raddysh to re-load their thinned-out forward group. Lapierre will have to take big leaps to be a reliable top-6 forward, and he'll get secondary PP time at best. That is a pass for me.
Joel Farabee is an interesting player. If you told me today that he would get 17:30 per game and would skate on the team's top PP unit, he'd be my selection. However, he lost ice time from 2022-23 to 2023-24, the Flyers added Matvei Michkov to the fold, and Tyson Foerster looks to be a John Tortorella favourite. At best, Farabee is the #5 forward on the depth chart, and with Tortorella behind the bench, that means he's anywhere from the #5 to the #10 forward. Adding Michkov also puts into question whether Farabee will earn top PP time. The Flyers have a bad power play anyway, but if Michkov helps turn things around, Farabee may have lost his hope at regular top PP minutes.
To me, this is an instance where we keep Bertuzzi. He didn't have the 2023-24 season fantasy managers were hoping for, but he also had just six power play points. The 2024-25 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide (available for purchase here) has Bertuzzi on the second PP unit but I think he takes the net-front role on the top unit. A full season from an improved Bedard, along with some other offseason additions, should give this team a decent power play, and I think Bertuzzi can get to the 10-15 PPP range. That makes him a 50-point player, which is about where Farabee will come in. I think Bertuzzi has more upside beyond that, though, so it's the Chicago Blackhawk for me.
Like an earlier question, we have one across several positions:
The easy drop is Byram. Look, I really like Byram (like Fiala, he's one of 'my guys'), but going to Buffalo is a bad situation for him. He is behind at least Rasmus Dahlin for top PP time, if not both him and Owen Power. Also, we aren't going to see the 3F/2D power play they ran after Byram was traded to Buffalo last season because Lindy Ruff is there. Ruff often used 4F/1D power plays in New Jersey so it'll be the same in Buffalo and that caps Byram's upside.
Laurent Brossoit is also an easy pass. The backup goalie – at best a 1A/1B – for a team that might be in the Draft Lottery again? No thanks.
Mike Matheson is an interesting name. If the manager was going for it this year, I would say keep him. The team still has a backlog of young defencemen and while I'm very high on Lane Hutson, this season screams of Hutson starting out in the AHL before a call-up in November or December, at which point he'll be running the second PP unit. Matheson should be around or over 50 points again with very good peripherals. If the decision is focused on 2024-25, he's my choice.
If the decision is balancing 2024-25 with the future, I probably lean Tomas Hertl. I view him and Bryan Rust as similar options, but the difference is Pittsburgh might be in full tear-down mode a year (maybe two) from now, depending what happens with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin; the Penguins already aren't very good right now as it is. Rust and Hertl probably have similar point outputs, but if all goes right, I think Hertl's upside is higher given the team around him. Conversely, peripherals will be similar, Hertl is slightly younger, and with the upside built in, my choice is Hertl.
I will say, a lot of this is position dependent. If someone is already keeping two centres and Hertl has no winger eligibility, I would be fine with Rust. If someone is not keeping any defencemen and is looking to win this year, Matheson is probably the choice. A bit of extra context is needed, but Hertl is the general option for me.
The last one is a group of similar forwards:
Malkin is the first guy to pass on. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the top stars of his generation. He also turned 38 years old last month, is on an aging roster, and has had back-to-back seasons of declining points and shots rates. Farewell to thee.
I think the next guy to pass on is Claude Giroux. He is a very good player, but Ottawa should have a healthy Josh Norris, is going to get a full year from Shane Pinto, and brought in David Perron as a free agent. Like Joel Farabee earlier, Giroux seems like he's been pushed down the depth chart. He is still a 60-point player, but I wouldn't rely on him passing 70 points again like he did the year before, and he turns 37 years old in January. I wouldn't outright argue with keeping him, but I would leave him off.
This comes down to Chris Kreider and Dylan Strome. This is where more context is necessary. If this is a multi-cat league, then it's Kreider without a second thought. If it's a points-only format, it's a bit more of a question.
There should be concern for Strome given the team bringing in Pierre-Luc Dubois, but I'll be honest, Strome may straight up be the better player. It all depends how the coach views him. My concern is Strome is left off the top PP unit as they try to make Dubois work, and that could cut into Strome's upside.
I will say Kreider here, regardless of format, but if it's points-only, I would be fine with going to Strome instead.
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Thanks for taking my question, Michael. I was leaning toward Raymond too.