Frozen Tools Forensics: Professional Tryouts (PTOs)
Chris Kane
2024-09-20
The NHL season is approaching and the flow of news is starting to pick up. Training camps are starting and we have injury updates, signings, line combinations, and PTOs. Professional tryouts are not usually the way to make a name for yourself as a fantasy player, and for the most part fantasy leagues won't be won or lost by someone currently on a PTO. This makes sense. Most of the players that teams thought would be a good addition were signed to an actual contract over the summer. A PTO option is for the leftovers. That doesn't mean there aren't occasional decent seasons following a PTO. We have seen 50-plus-point-pace seasons (from someone on the upcoming list actually), a 20-goal season or two, but it isn't that common.
For today we are shifting gears a little, away from the strictest data use and going to try to envision a best-case scenario for some of these familiar names on PTOs. The worst-case scenario is pretty evident: They don't get a contract. I am going to be looking at these players' recent history as well as the situation they are walking into and see what is the most we might be able to expect from them in 2024-25. With drafts happening I would like to give some context for anyone seeing these names on their draft board to help make the choice as to whether any of these players might be worth the risk. The recommendations are based on typical one-year redraft leagues and obviously the calculations might be different in deeper leagues.
The following is a list of some familiar names that are about to enter their PTO. There are more, but these are the biggest names who might be of interest.
Age | Pos | GP | G | A | SOG | PPP | HIT | BLKS | ||
Calen Addison | Ottawa Senators | 24 | D | 72 | 1 | 16 | 93 | 9 | 82 | 104 |
Tyson Barrie | Calgary Flames | 32 | D | 41 | 1 | 14 | 65 | 6 | 14 | 47 |
Sammy Blais | Vancouver Canucks | 27 | R | 53 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 193 | 20 |
Travis Dermott | Edmonton Oilers | 27 | D | 50 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 107 | 83 |
Mike Hoffman | Edmonton Oilers | 34 | R | 66 | 10 | 13 | 71 | 6 | 28 | 27 |
Tyler Johnson | Boston Bruins | 33 | C | 67 | 17 | 14 | 112 | 16 | 46 | 33 |
Kevin Labanc | New Jersey Devils | 28 | R | 46 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 3 | 56 | 17 |
Max Pacioretty | Toronto Maple Leafs | 35 | L | 47 | 4 | 19 | 95 | 11 | 71 | 27 |
Jakub Vrana | Washington Capitals | 28 | R | 21 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 9 | 4 |
Kailer Yamamoto | Utah Hockey Club | 25 | C | 59 | 8 | 8 | 61 | 6 | 31 | 20 |
Starting at the top, I'm really not interested in Calen Addison. He got some prime deployment when he burst onto the scene in Minnesota in 2022-23. He put up a 38-point pace, which was almost reasonable. The problem is it took excellent power-play deployment to get there, plus he didn't shoot, hit, or block. He was valuable if power-play assists were valuable to you. Minnesota clearly didn't value it too much, as he ended up in San Jose in 2024-25 where he somehow couldn't keep a top power-play spot with basically no competition. Now he is going to try out for a team where that top power-play spot already has two good candidates. Even if he sticks with the organization, I don't see how he gets a top power-play look over Thomas Chabot or Jake Sanderson. If Addison isn't on a top power play, he is doing absolutely nothing. I am a taking a pass on Addison.
Tyson Barrie has a similar profile, except he has a history of actually holding onto a top power-play. In his last year in Edmonton and his split year between Edmonton and Nashville he put up around a 50-point pace. With Roman Josi back in 2023-24, Barrie did not get top power play in Nashville and dropped to a 30-point pace. There is certainly not an easy path here as Calgary has Rasmus Andersson and Mackenzie Weegar, who are certainly capable of running that top power play. Similar to Addison, Barrie needs that top unit to be worth anything, and 50 points would be possible in that context. While I give Addison essentially a zero percent likelihood of things breaking right for him, Barrie is maybe up at a 15-20 percent chance. I am at least interested in watching this one.
Sammy Blais is interesting basically because he hits, so he has a decent floor and because he had one surge of relevance at the end of 2022-23 where he put up 15 points over 12 March games after being traded to St. Louis and given prime deployment in a very depleted top six. There does seem to be space in the top six in Vancouver, particularly with Dakota Joshua out to start. He would have to beat out Daniel Sprong, Conor Garland, and Nils Hoglander types. Best case scenario is a career high Conor Garland-type 50-points plus hits on a second line with either JT Miller or Elias Pettersson. It would be pretty valuable, but the likelihood is very low. Pass unless you see he is getting extensive preseason looks on that second line.
Travis Dermott makes the list as a peripherals-type defenseman. Over two hits per game is interesting, but there are likely many other similar D out there who aren't on PTOs. Pass.
Mike Hoffman has a personal history of making a team off of a PTO and then putting up a 50-plus-point-pace season. At 35 he is clearly falling off with declining time on ice, point paces, and shot rates over the last several seasons. For him to work out at all, he needs to at least make the top six, which got a lot harder with Edmonton's addition of Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner, both of whom fit the Hoffman mold and have better recent track records. Pass unless we learn of injuries.
I want Tyler Johnson to be interesting. We thought he would be in Chicago but that didn't work out. Boston was clearly wanting to bolster center depth this offseason so there was at least some opportunity there. He would need to pass Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, at least on the depth chart and really would need to play with David Pastrnak to be relevant, which means passing newly signed Elias Lindholm. I just don't see it. Pass.
Kevin Labanc is kind of interesting. He was the next man up in San Jose for a long time, but somehow never stepped up. He has 40–50-point seasons under his belt, is not super old, and seems like maybe a new scenario could do him good. Like with all the other forwards he needs top six and power play time to put up anything fantasy relevant and New Jersey just added Tomas Tatar and Stefan Noesen to fill out their top nine. New Jersey has historically struggled with injuries, though. I wouldn't draft him but could see a path if he can grab a bottom spot now and the injury bug hits during the season.
Okay I don't hate this one. I fully expected to. Max Pacioretty is clearly not the player he was. Injury concerns and age are clearly a problem. He did put up 40 points and two shots per game in 2022-23 though, which is something. I don't see that Toronto's top six is locked in either. Particularly if they play the big four across three lines. Matthew Knies should be in the top six, but might not be. Max Domi could anchor a third line (like he did on the first day of camp with William Nylander). Young guys Bobby McMann and Nicholas Robertson are wild cards. How fun would John Tavares and Max Pacioretty be? I'm putting this in the Barrie category, which is worth watching even if the chances aren't super high.
Consider this the obligatory Jakub Vrana mention. Kind of like a rich man's Labanc, he has been the best player not breaking out basically each of the last five seasons. Washington needs the scoring so there is certainly a path to a roster spot. If we hadn't been burned so many times, I might suggest a last pick flier while we see what happens, but at the very least watch his status to see where he lands. Best case scenario is still quite high.
I'm putting Kailer Yamamoto in the Labanc category. He is young for this group which leaves me slightly more optimistic. He has a spotty history, but on the positive side the only time he saw more than 17 minutes a night he put up an 80-point pace (granted he was playing with Leon Draisaitl, but still). He was stuck in a log jam of middle six players in Seattle and never really got a chance. All of the changes in Utah mean there might be some opportunity. He doesn't have a strong history of shots, or other peripherals so we are really relying on scoring here. I wouldn't draft, but like with Labanc or Vrana, I am keeping an eye on this situation.
That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.