Ramblings: Favourite Late Draft Picks; Sidney Crosby; A Dark Horse Power Play QB & More (Sept 25)

Alexander MacLean

2024-09-25

With a three-year-old and infant twins at home I haven't done nearly the research or the number of mock drafts that I would usually like to when approaching draft season, but regardless I have still zeroed in on a handful of my favourite selections after pick 150 or so. We're using Yahoo's ADP numbers because I really can't understand Fantrax's system that would have Connor McDavid down at seven, Charlie Lindgren at 11, and Steven Stamkos ahead of Auston Matthews.

Jonathan Huberdeau – I'm still not convinced that he's completely cooked, but I am sure he's never hitting the 115-point mark again. Somewhere in the middle lies where I think Huberdeau finishes this season. Dobber has him projected for 59 points in 80 games in the guide, but I think he tops at least 65, and depending on which direction his shot rate goes, I think there's upside for a top-75 fantasy campaign out of him this year. That kind of player is available to you between picks 150 and 200, where most of these players are then going to be dropped for a hot hand by Thanksgiving anyways.

Anze Kopitar – I'll be short and sweet here, but Kopitar is another one of those players aging like a fine wine and should put up another 70-point campaign. The main issue with him is that his shot and hit rates have fallen, but he's still a very serviceable player, and for someone like me that drafts most of my wingers and defencemen early, he's an excellent option as a C2 or C3 later in the draft.

Logan Stankoven – This is my rookie of the year pick. He has the talent, the support, and also the NHL experience with 14 points in 24 regular season games, and eight points in 19 playoff games. With Joe Pavelski gone, Stankoven can slide up into the top-six, right away, and with the intensity and skill that he brings he's not going to be demoted after that. He doesn't have the same point-per-game upside as a few of these other players do for this upcoming year, but I like the floor/ceiling combo just as much.

Kirby Dach – He's been mentioned a lot this offseason, but I'll say it again. After missing almost all of last season with an injury and being reinforced on the second line with Alex Newhook and Patrik Laine, Dach becomes an intriguing option if you know what you're signing up for. Unfortunately, his peripherals are a little soft, with under two shots per game, under one hit per game, a possible lack of PP1 exposure this year, and a faceoff win percentage under 40%. It's his point scoring that brings his value though, and he should be viewed as a 60+ point scorer this season if he remains healthy.

Pavel Mintyukov & Owen Zellweger – Cam Fowler has been an exceptional and underrated power play threat over the last number of years, but it appears his time on the top unit may be over soon. Either or both of Owen Zellweger or Mintyukov would make an excellent top power play quarterback, and both will likely need to be a bit more sheltered than Fowler at even strength. Zellweger got some tougher assignments and did well last year, while Minty was more sheltered but did see some PK ice time. Both put up similarly good power play numbers, and it could be either one taking the reins (or possibly both, either on one unit or split between two equivalent units). Of the two, I'm more ready to gamble on Mintyukov who has a few more games of experience and provides better peripherals for fantasy as well.

Pavel Zacha – The Bruins' #1 centre from last season seems to be falling down draft boards with the arrival of Elias Lindholm. However, Zacha's best production came on a line with David Pastrnak and one of Danton Heinen or Morgan Geekie. With Heinen gone, Geekie likely gets the full-time spot there, and that line should stay together. That means Brad Marchand, Lindholm, and maybe Trent Frederic would make up the top line, and it becomes Charlie Coyle who is actually getting the short end of the stick with Lindholm's arrival. All that to say, another similarly productive year from Zacha should see him picked well before #150, especially if he can produce closer to his Q4 numbers last year where he put up 21 points in 19 games.

K'Andre Miller – Defencemen are in short supply after pick 150, let alone into the 200s, but that's where someone like Miller can provide some amazing rewards. Miller has been a favourite of mine for years now, and with Gustafsson gone he should be able to take over the PP2 job now in addition to being an excellent two-way defenceman at even strength. He provides excellent Hit + Blk numbers, so if he could bring his shot totals up above the 1.5 per game mark, then he would be a fantastic peripheral contributor. If the scoring can get back to the 45-point-pace of two seasons ago rather than last year's 30-point pace, then even better.

The last few I'll mention are Tommy Novak, Adam Fantilli, and Dawson Mercer. The former two I have touched on a fair bit already this summer (and will mention Novak again next week), while the latter is dependent on possibly lining up with Jack Hughes, but the upside of being Hughes' linemate all season while rebounding from some bad puck luck last year is something we fantasy managers should all be aware of. 

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With Sidney Crosby now signed we can turn our curiosity towards what his fantasy production will look like next year. We know he's one of the best players of all time, but he is also 37, and he won't be amazingly productive forever. Four of his previous five seasons saw him post between a 90- to 95-point pace, which is both excellent and extremely consistent. Those five years are also five of his best seven campaigns from the last decade.

Crosby's underlying numbers also show no sign of slipping, and with no signs anywhere of an age-related decline, it's fair to assume that another 90-point season is in the cards. What is even more interesting, is that Crosby's peripherals have risen over the last few years, with his shot rate rising each of the last five years – up to 3.4 per game last season – and his hit rate jumping to 1.23 per game, which is a career high. The hits we can't bet on continuing, though they might as Crosby's game seems to be evolving and adjusting as he ages, and this could be one layer of it. If he can keep up both the peripherals and the scoring, he's easily worth a top-15 pick this year in any league format.

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In the effort of trying not to overreact to training camp lines and deployment, I'll save most of my thoughts until we're closer to the end of camp.

Jiri Kulich – Being the only "rookie" initially up with the main group for a team that has a much shorter training camp window than others is quite telling on how the organization views both Kulich and the rest of the prospect pool coming into the season. He wasn't in the lineup for Monday night's matchup with mostly an NHL lineup, so even at this point it's uncertain exactly how he fits into the immediate plans.

I also wanted to highlight again that Buffalo and New Jersey kick off the season next week, so take a flier with a late pick or two from those teams, as each of them play a league-high four times next week.

The top line in new Jersey of Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, and Timo Meier feels like it should explode, but Meier and Bratt actually played best with Nico Hischier last year, so there are some possibilities of others playing with Hughes instead. Mercer, and Erik Haula once – he's healthy – might be the best bets.

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Last camp thought for now – I’m looking at Florida and I feel like there’s a dark horse for production on the back end to replace Brandon Montour. Nate Schmidt is coming in on a prove-you-still-have-it deal for $800K. He has struggled for a few years in Winnpeg, and do you know what happened at almost the exact same time that Schmidt fell off a cliff there? Paul Maurice stepped down. Now take a quick think about who Schmidt’s new head coach is, and you can see what I’m getting at. 

The last time Maurice coached Schmidt, he put up 17 points in 29 games, with tons of power play exposure. There’s a whole ton of power play time available here, and a very skilled top unit to work with. Adam Boqvist is a good bet, but there is an even darker horse here for you to grab even later.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 21 - 13:12 NSH vs L.A
Dec 21 - 16:12 EDM vs S.J
Dec 21 - 16:12 CGY vs CHI
Dec 21 - 19:12 MTL vs DET
Dec 21 - 19:12 TOR vs NYI
Dec 21 - 19:12 PHI vs CBJ
Dec 21 - 19:12 BOS vs BUF
Dec 21 - 19:12 WPG vs MIN
Dec 21 - 19:12 N.J vs PIT
Dec 21 - 22:12 VAN vs OTT
Dec 21 - 22:12 VGK vs SEA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA
BRYAN RUST PIT
ROSS COLTON COL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
MATT MURRAY TOR
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
SCOTT WEDGEWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MTL Players
26.5 NICK SUZUKI JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY COLE CAUFIELD
20.5 BRENDAN GALLAGHER CHRISTIAN DVORAK JOSH ANDERSON
20.2 ALEX NEWHOOK PATRIK LAINE KIRBY DACH

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