I had included 23 sleeper picks in the 2024-2025 Dobber Fantasy Guide and was curious to see how each of them was doing to this point in the regular season.
It's still early to have a conclusion on most, but there are some that are already in the trash.
In 2023-2024, I had included 20 sleepers and looked back here.
Here they are in alphabetical order:
Viktor Arvidsson (F) – Edmonton – (15 GP – 2G – 3A – 5PTS)
I did state that Arvidsson would need to rely on even strength (ES) production as he was unlikely to get much in the way of power play (PP) time with the Oilers.
I was correct in terms of the PP as he has just 23.2% of time with the man advantage. Unfortunately to this point, he has just four ES points in 15 games while averaging almost 16 minutes per game. His shots on goal per game has dipped to 2.4 from a career average of 3.0.
He has played with Leon Draisaitl over 67% of the time at ES, so there is no excuse there. The most important thing for Arvidsson is that he has been healthy.
Andre Burakovsky (F) – Seattle – (15-0-6-6)
I was leaning hard into the four years prior to 2023-24, where Burakovsky had averaged between 0.76 and 0.83 points per game. He had 0.33/g in 2023-24 (49-7-9-16) and has only managed 0.4/g after 15 games.
His ice time is at 14:27 per game and he has only produced three points at ES. It's not looking good.
Alexandre Carrier (D) – Nashville – (15-1-4-5)
I was hoping that Carrier could replicate his 2021-22 where he averaged 20:59, had 30 points, 95 hits and 124 blocks in 77 games.
After 15 games, he is averaging 20:13 per game, on pace for 27 points, 82 hits and 160 blocks. He has been paired with Jeremy Lauzon 70% of the time at ES, but they have struggled a little. With the loss of Dante Fabbro on waivers, it could be a boost of confidence for Carrier.
Logan Couture (F) – San Jose – Injured
Including Couture was based on his return from injury, but it's not looking like he will be back any time soon.
Jake DeBrusk (F) – Vancouver – (13-3-5-8)
Debrusk has averaged 0.57 points per game in his career and has scored 25 goals or more three times before. The thought that Debrusk would play in an elevated role and get more PP time disappeared after five or six games, as he lost his spot on the top unit of the PP and now has six of his eight points at ES.
He has had 1.7 shots on goal per game with Vancouver, after averaging about 2.4 per game in Boston. I expect that to increase as the year progresses.
I was cautiously optimistic for 55-60 points, but there are reasons his career high is 50 after seven years in the league.
Jonathan Drouin (F) – Colorado – (1-0-0-0 injured)
Drouin played one game before going down with an injury that has kept him out of the lineup for 14 games and counting. He did play on the first unit in that one game and that was my hope for him if he had been healthy.
His history of being injured should have outweighed the sleeper hope for more than 56 points.
He could be back with Colorado this week.
Ty Emberson (D) – Edmonton – (13-0-1-1)
I had included Emberson while he was with San Jose, as I had hoped that he would be in consideration for 20 minutes per night and perhaps produce 20 points, 100 hits and 100 blocks.
After 13 games with the Oilers he has averaged just 14:46, posted one point and had 20 hits and 12 blocks.
Ryker Evans (D) – Seattle – (15-3-5-8)
As we go through this list in alphabetical order, Evans is what I would consider my first hit as a sleeper. He is averaging 20:07 per game and has become a regular on the crowded Kraken blueline.
In addition to his being on pace for 44 points (unlikely but perhaps he puts up 25-30), he has had 27 hits and 25 blocks which puts him well on pace for the 100 club in both.
Barrett Hayton (F) – Utah – (15-5-3-8)
Hayton was looking like another successful sleeper pick after he had four goals and two assists in his first five games. He has just one goal and one assist in his 10 games since.
In recent games, he has seen his ice time below 14 minutes and he has been taken off the first unit of the PP. His 0.53 points per game is still higher than he has had in his career, but he will need to keep his spot in the top six to maintain it.
Taylor Hall (F) – Chicago – (16-2-4-6)
Hall managed just 10 games in 2023-24, so being healthy and playing is an important step for him.
The allure of playing with Connor Bedard and/or Teuvo Teravainen was too tempting for me not to include him as a sleeper. I was hoping that Hall, who has averaged 3.3 shots per game in his career, could still muster at least 2.5/g and put up 20-25 goals.
Hall has not had much ice time with either Bedard or Teravainen and has been asked to generate offense with the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi over 75 percent of the time at ES.
To be fair to Hall, it might take him 25-30 games to get back to the pace of the NHL.
Ville Heinola (D) – Winnipeg – (Injured)
Just when it looked like Heinola might get his chance for a regular role in the NHL, he had infection issues with screws from a broken ankle surgery from the prior year and has missed the first 15 games and counting.
The good news for Heinola is that he could be back in a week or so, but the bad news is that the Jets are going so well right now that they won't need his services outside of a sixth or seventh defender in the short-term.
Alexander Holtz (F) – Vegas – (14-1-5-6)
Holtz has played more in Vegas (12:53/g) than in New Jersey (11:38) and has raised his production from 0.34 pts/g to 0.43.
The hope was for a bit more production with the Golden Knights and perhaps an audition in the top-six. So far, he has been on the third line most of the time with limited PP time.
The ascension of Pavel Dorofeyev (14-8-3-11) and stellar play of Ivan Barbashev (14-7-9-16) has closed off any opportunity to date.
Arthur Kaliyev (F) – Los Angeles – (Injured)
I considered this a make it or break it year for Kaliyev after seven goals and eight assists in 51 games in 2023-24. Unfortunately, Kaliyev has missed every game so far with a broken clavicle and could be back this week.
He's capable of playing 55-60 games still.
Kevin Korchinski (D) – Chicago – (AHL)
After playing 76 games as a rookie for Chicago in 2023-24 and putting up 15 points, the Blackhawks started Korchinski in the AHL to begin 2024-25.
He has played just eight games in the AHL and has three points.
Chicago did the right thing as Korchinski needs to play a good chunk of games at that level and come back to the NHL ready to contribute.
Anthony Mantha (F) – Calgary – (13-4-3-7)
Mantha had 23 goals and 21 assists in 74 games in 2023-24 with Washington, averaging 14:13 per game and playing on the second unit of the PP.
The hope was that in Calgary, Mantha might see 16-17 minutes per night and get some looks on the top unit.
That hasn't materialized as he is on the second unit and averaging 13:54 per game.
Daniil Miromanov (D) – Calgary – (13-0-2-2)
I was thinking that Miromanov could be in line for a regular role in Calgary in 2024-25 and that has come to fruition.
He has averaged 18:35 in his first 13 games but hasn't seen any time on the PP as he did in 2023-24.
I still think his role will progress in Calgary.
Tommy Novak (F) – Nashville – (12-3-1-4)
There was and is an opportunity for Novak to play as one of the top two centers in Nashville. He has had a disappointing start to 2024-25 as much of the Predators have.
He hasn't done himself any favors to get an opportunity for an elevated role and conversely, he might have made it obvious to management that they need to look for an alternative.
Victor Olofsson (F) – Vegas – (4-3-0-3 injured)
Other than getting injured and missing 10 games, Olofsson was having a great start to his time in Vegas.
He's proven that he can be an effective goal scorer on the PP and should get another opportunity once he is back and playing.
I still believe he can be a sleeper this year.
Scott Perunovich (D) – St. Louis – (6-1-0-1)
When I included Perunovich, the Blues had not signed Philip Broberg yet.
Admittedly, it was still a bit of a stretch for Perunovich even if the team hadn't gone out and signed Broberg. One could also derive from the signing that management thought they needed an alternative to Perunovich.
It's quite obvious now, that for Perunovich to produce in St. Louis, a lot of pins need to drop.
Mikhail Sergachev (D) – Utah – (15-2-8-10)
I was hoping that if everything went well for Sergachev and he did get to quarterback the top unit on the PP, he could produce 40-50 points and put up 100 hits and blocks.
He is on pace for 55 points, 55 hits and 130 blocks after 15 games. He is averaging 25:38 per game and has played 66.0% on the PP and 62.1% killing penalties. They have not eased him back.
Jared Spurgeon (D) – Minnesota – (9-0-3-3)
After playing just 16 games in 2023-24, Spurgeon has come back slower than hoped in 2024-25. He has averaged just 19:35 per game after being over 21 minutes per game every year since 2010-2011.
The second unit of the PP is his ceiling now, while his penalty killing is down to 16.2%.
I thought a healthy Spurgeon might cut into the production of Brock Faber, but that hasn't been the case yet.
Henry Thrun (D) – San Jose – (15-0-4-4)
I was under the mindset that someone had to run the PP in San Jose, and it could very well be Thrun.
The simple answer is that he is not the one running the PP as he has averaged just 11.4% on the PP.
His ice time has been reduced from over 20 minutes per game to 16:26 as the Sharks have added Jake Walman, Cody Ceci and Timothy Liljegren to their roster.
He did play 22:48 on Sunday night with an assist and four blocks.
Trevor Zegras (F) – Anaheim – (14-1-2-3)
Zegras had a disastrous 2023-24 with just 15 points in 31 games. He had two separate injuries and ended up missing 51 games.
I expected him to bounce back in 2024-25 to around 0.8 points per game, but he has played himself off the first unit of the PP and cratered his production to this point.
I really think he won't be a member of the Ducks at the end of 2024-25.
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