Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. There was a bit of a rumour before Monday's Sharks game that Macklin Celebrini would be a healthy scratch. We're seeing this a little more it seems, where rookies are getting a game or two off more so in a proactive way rather than a negative retaliation for mistakes on the ice. Getting the rookies a bit of a longer break allows them to afforestation a little more smoothly both physically and mentally, giving them a bit more time to practice between games and soak in lessons they've learned. 

Anaheim did this quite a bit last year with Leo Carlsson, and other notables this year include Matvei Michkov, and Celebrini's teammate Will Smith. It seems only a matter of time before Celebrini does get a scheduled break, and it likely would have happened already if it wasn't for his injury. All that to say, is now part of a positive process, so don't overreact to one or two games watching from the stands. (nov13)

2. Connor McMichael continues to be one of the big stories of the NHL season so far. McMichael scored another two goals in the Capitals’ win on Friday. That gives him 12 goals, which ties him for second in the league with four other players. McMichael has been both good and lucky, increasing his shot total by over a shot per game from last season, but he has also doubled his shooting percentage from last season. There’s a sell-high opportunity in a non-keeper league if you can flip him for a more established player, but at this point he’s a bona fide NHL player and worth rostering in many leagues. (nov16)

3. Friday's Detroit/Anaheim game featured first NHL goals from two prospects of interest.

Cutter Gauthier scored his first NHL goal to break a 3-3 tie in the third period. Gauthier finally scored that first goal in his 17^th career NHL game. He skated just under 13 minutes while on a line with Ross Johnston and Jansen Harkins, so he should only be on keeper teams and not single-season teams at the moment.

Marco Kasper also scored his first NHL goal, and he also added an assist in 15 minutes of icetime. Kasper showed some promise during the preseason, although he hasn’t had the same level of success during the regular season. Same as Gauthier – only for keeper leagues at the moment.

Kasper’s linemate Jonatan Berggren was a potential sleeper entering the season, but he started the season with just one assist in 14 games. However, Berggren now has goals in back-to-back games. The Wings have had scoring issues all season, which have affected multiple players.

Olen Zellweger finished the game with a goal and two assists. Earlier in the season, I didn’t know which defenseman would be on Anaheim’s top power play. Now we know it is Zellweger, who scored two of his three points on Friday on the power play. He’s rostered in just 4 percent of Yahoo leagues, but that number could climb after Friday’s performance. (nov16)

4. Dustin Wolf took care of the Predators on Friday, stopping all 29 shots he faced in a 2-0 shutout. With the Flames expected to be below the playoff bar, Wolf was an afterthought in many single-season leagues. However, he has played up to his potential with six quality starts in nine games. He’s still rostered in just under half of Yahoo leagues, so he’s worth adding in some way if he’s available in your league. He and Dan Vladar are alternating starts, so at least he’s not being leaned on too heavily in his first NHL season. (nov16)

5. Connor McDavid joined the 1000-point club with a goal in the second period against Nashville on Thursday night. McDavid has reached 1000 point in just 659 games, which makes him the 4th-fastest player and 99^th player overall to reach that milestone. McDavid later assisted on the overtime winner to give him 1001 career points. A recent hot stretch (9 PTS in last 3 GP) has helped him get to this spot in spite of an underwhelming (by his standards) start to the season. (nov15)

6. Andrei Vasilevskiy also reached a milestone on Thursday, registering his 300^th win as the Lightning knocked off the Jets by a score of 4-1. The Big Cat is also the fastest goalie to reach 300 wins, demonstrating the top-tier value he has provided to fantasy teams since breaking into the league in 2014-15. As the Lightning have fallen from being great to very good, Vasilevskiy’s win totals have fallen slightly by season. In fantasy leagues that count wins, picking top teams is one key factor when drafting a goalie for your team. (nov15)

7. I can recall former DobberHockey writer Steve Laidlaw once describing Sam Gagner as the NHL’s version of a designated hitter. Gagner would appear on a team’s top power play, but then his even-strength icetime would be limited and sheltered. The 2024 version of this player might be Stefan Noesen.

Entering Saturday, three of Noesen’s nine goals this season have been on the man advantage, so he is also providing some value at even strength. However, Noesen has averaged only 11:29 per game at even strength, which is what you’d expect from a bottom-6 forward. With a 25.0 SH% and 13.9 SH% at 5-on-5, Noesen is also a potential sell high. He should continue to be an effective power-play producer given his net-front presence, but I doubt he continues to produce at the 66-point pace that he is currently on. (nov15)

8. Entering Saturday, Uvis Balinskis had four shots in three of his past four games (none in the other game). That seems like a good sign for him keeping his spot on Florida’s top power play. He was held without a point on Thursday, but he has four points (all assists) in his previous four games – three of those on the power play. He’s rostered in only 2 percent of Yahoo leagues and 16 percent of Fantrax leagues, so he’s worth taking a flier on if you need production from the blueline or power-play help. (nov15)

9. If for some reason Balinskis is not available in your league, you could consider Timothy Liljegren. Yes, the same Liljegren that couldn’t stick with the Leafs. Liljegren scored his first goal (and point) of the season in San Jose’s 3-2 loss to the Rangers on Thursday. The downside is that Liljegren had yet to register a power-play point entering Saturday action, and he plays for the Sharks and not the Panthers. He has similar ownership numbers to Balinskis, although I slightly prefer the Panther at this point even if you had never heard of him prior to this season. (nov15)

10. In his second NHL game, Jonathan Lekkerimaki scored his first NHL goal. The Brock Boeser injury likely fast-tracked the callup of Lekkerimaki, although scoring five goals in seven AHL games certainly helped his cause as well. The Canucks are giving their 2022 first-round pick top-6 minutes and power-play time, which is more favorable than what many rookies receive when they first crack an NHL roster.

Some good news for the Canucks: Dakota Joshua made his season debut on Thursday after battling testicular cancer and battling a groin injury. Joshua did not record a point, but he took a minor penalty and was credited with four hits. He has back-to-back 200-hit seasons with the Canucks, so he is worth keeping an eye on for bangers leagues in particular. (nov15)

11. We are about 20% of the way into the season so there are roster decisions that need to be made. There are always indicators of regression, both positive and negative, and two key marks are Individual Points Percentage (IPP) and on-ice shooting percentage (OISH%). IPP is simply the rate at which a player garners a point when the team scores with that player on the ice, and OISH% is the team’s conversion rate on shots with that player on the ice. Let’s set some benchmarks to look at:

• In 2023-24, there were 245 forwards with at least 1000 total minutes. Four of those 245 forwards had an 80% IPP, and none were higher than 83%. Only 18 of those 245 forwards managed at least 75%.
• In 2023-24, there were 131 defencemen with at least 1200 total minutes. Only one of those 131 defencemen reached a 60% IPP (Shayne Gostisbehere, 60.9%). Just eight of those 131 defencemen reached 55%.
• Of those 245 forwards with at least 1000 total minutes, only three reached at least 15% OISH% (J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, and Nikita Kucherov). About a quarter of them (59/245) reached at least 12%.
• Of those 131 defencemen with at least 1200 total minutes, only three (Quinn Hughes, Victor Hedman, and Cale Makar) had an OISH% of at least 13%, and none reached 14%. About a quarter of them (34/131) reached at least 11%.

So, our benchmarks are that anything higher than 80% IPP for a forward or 60% for a defenceman is almost certainly going to regress negatively, and the same for a 15% OISH% for a forward and a 13% OISH% for a defenceman. Cool? Cool. (nov14)

Below are some skaters that are likely riding a bit hot to start the season – (at time of writing):

12. Jordan Kyrou

This is tough because it’s not hard to see Kyrou, and the Blues in general, being a bit better offensively whenever Robert Thomas makes his return, especially if he cuts a couple weeks off his timeline. However, Kyrou is sitting at an 87.5% IPP right now. He has had high IPPs for most of his career, but usually closer to the 75% range. The worrisome part is that the team is shooting 10.2% with him on the ice, which is a four-year low but not far off last year’s 10.6%. Even at an 11% OISH%, the team would be scoring about a quarter-goal more per 60 minutes, or maybe 5-6 goals in a full season. St. Louis is just really having a tough time creating offence.

At this point, it’s probably selling low on Kyrou, and I would wait until Thomas returns to see if they can generate some magic. However, Kyrou is on a 72-point pace right now and I doubt things get much better over the balance of the season. I would likely rather risk that they can go on a two-month hot streak at some point than sell Kyrou for his value right now, which isn’t super high. (nov14)

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13. Jared McCann is finally putting up numbers that some fantasy owners have been wishing for the last number of years. Over the last few years McCann has been someone who put up first-line numbers despite barely playing second-line minutes. Well, this year he was pacing for over 90 points (at time of writing) because he was… still playing less than 17 minutes and game. Huh. 

Interestingly, the only real red flag McCann has is his team's shooting percentage with him on the ice, which will see a correction that would drop his pace a bit. His personal shooting percentage at 21% sounds extremely high at first, but he's had full seasons at 19% before, and his shot rate is a little lower, hinting that he's being a little more selective too. While it should still come down, it shouldn't see a major drop. Those drops could still be mitigated by an increase in ice time. I know, I know, we're always waiting for that and it hasn't come yet, but note that the only four times McCann has played over 18 minutes in a game this year have been in four of the last five contests prior to Tuesday's game. (nov13)

14. Martin Necas has been one of the big surprises this year, after being drafted often past the 150 slot. Just how far is he likely to fall though when his numbers come back to earth? Well, (at mid-week) his shooting percentage is double his norm, his team's shooting pecans with him on the ice is 1.5 times the usual barometer, and his IPPs are higher than they have ever been. What that tells me, is his pace is probably about 40% too high all told. Take that off of where he currently is, and you end up about an 85-point pace the rest of the way. Still an order of magnitude ahead of his previous career high of 71 points, but Necas is also right on the border of being a larger player, and those do break out later. We could see the scoring pace of 85+ points just being the new norm for him. (nov13)

15. Of the goalies who have played the most games thus far, I wanted to look at which might be in the most danger of tailing off due to the high workload. Goalies like Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, and league leader Connor Hellebuyck have been there before, so the volume isn't a concern. Here are the goalies with the most starts who we might see tail off after Christmas, if not even earlier. (At time of writing):

Connor Ingram

Ingram has really taken the reins away from Karel Vejmelka in the Utah crease, building on last season's 50-start campaign. He's on pace to make over 60 starts this year, and I'm not something sure that's a good thing. 

His game has suffered with the team losing top-four defencemen John Marino and Sean Durzi to injuries, and Ingram’s ratios are downright poor at this point. On top of that, he really faded in the second half last year, with a start divide right around the mid-way point, going from a .920 save percentage down to .895 in the second half. (nov13)

16. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 

Maybe this one has begun already with Monday's game, or maybe we can blame that outing on the minor injury that the team noted was the "real" reason for him being pulled after the fourth goal against on Monday. UPL has managed a number of injuries over the last few years, so his propensity there does lend some credence to the fact that it might be a minor ailment that needs nursing.

UPL was very streaky last year, and Buffalo isn’t exactly known for their team defence. They have goalie of the future Devon Levi waiting in the wings, and a 13-year streak with no playoff games that they are trying to bust. Injured and streaky is not going to cut it.

Jeremy Swayman

Swayman had declining save percentages in each successive quarter last season, and he’s on pace to meet last year’s 44 starts in Q3 this year, which means we could see the wheels fall off even faster. The issue on top of that is that Swayman hasn’t even played all that well yet, so whatever hot streak he does eventually have, it likely just a flash in the pan of what will go down as a very disappointing year on the whole. (nov13)

17. Of all teams, division rivals Washington and Pittsburgh made a small trade, with Lars Eller going to the Caps for a 3rd and 5th rounder. 

Pittsburgh is heading to the basement this year, and losing a third line centre certainly takes things another step in that direction. There isn't much of a fantasy impact anywhere from this deal. 

This does indicate that Washington believes their start is for real, so it probably isn't the first forward acquisition they make. With their D core finally healthy, and a cheap pair of goalies, there's less room there for an easy improvement on the trade market. That might mean an eventually demotion for a few forwards such as Aliaksei Protas, Jakub Vrana, and Andrew Mangiapane. (nov13)

18. I've had to fill a few minors slots lately in my one cap dynasty, and all of the well-known prospects are picked through. There are only two remaining in the FA pile that are owned in 10% or more fantasy leagues, and only 14 who are owned in 5% or more. For those of you in leagues like mine where nearly 1000 players are rostered (24 teams with 25 Pro and 15 minors slots per team). It's not easy to find diamonds in the rough at that point, but there are a few names in the group of under 5% owned in Fantrax that I have added to my minors squad in the last few weeks because they have some decent upside. 

Viktor Neuchev 

Second among forwards on the Rochester Americans AHL team, Neuchev is out-pacing Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich, and Konsta Helenius, showing that he might be the next forward that deserves a roster spot up with the Sabres. The former fourth round pick is on an upward trajectory, and should either get some NHL games in the next year, or be traded to a team that has space for him. (nov13)

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19. I won't have the Cap League skater or goalie rankings updated this month due to a lack of free time to be able to update all the sheets and data properly. However, I'll use my Ramblings next week to answer a few cap league related questions for those of you itching to get an answer on something or waiting to see a specific data point. Feel free to get those to me via my Twitter or Bluesky handles below. (nov13)

20. 7. Boston announced that defenceman Hampus Lindholm will be out ‘weeks’ due to a lower-body injury. Hopefully it is on the shorter end and he can be back by the end of the month, but for now, it appears Charlie McAvoy will get his top power play role back. This should mean more minutes for Nikita Zadorov, as a left-handed shot, but we may see some funky defence pairs until Lindholm returns. (nov14)

A couple of other injuries to veterans: 

Max Pacioretty was moved to the IR and has been deemed week-to-week. He left Toronto’s game on Saturday with a lower-body injury, and given his recent, and severe, injury history with his Achilles, it is a concern. No concrete updates beyond week-to-week, though.

Calgary announced Anthony Mantha is done for the season due to a torn ACL. Just a brutal injury for a player who was looking to re-establish himself in the league, and now he has a huge mountain to climb to get ready for next season. (nov12)

21. Six and a half weeks after undergoing an appendectomy, John Gibson finally made his season debut against the Blue Jackets last Sunday. He had no time to ease in and hit the ground at warp speed, stopping 39 of the 41 shots thrown his way. The result may seem less significant given the opponent, but this isn’t the same Columbus team that struggled to score last year. They’ve been solid offensively this season, based on both actual and expected goals for – so this was an encouraging effort from Gibson. It comes right after three-straight poor performances from Lukas Dostal, whose inexperience has been more noticeable in November after an excellent October. It might feel like the tides are turning in Anaheim’s net, but I still have a hard time endorsing Gibson in fantasy formats due to his injury history, lacklustre numbers in recent years, and most importantly, the leaky defense in front of him. (nov11)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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