Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des and Dobber

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1. The holiday trade freeze will be lifted on December 28. That means there won’t be any new trades to discuss for about a week. 

2. A total of 13 shots came off the stick of Jack Hughes on Thursday versus the Blue Jackets. At time of writing, that was the highest single-game total from a player this season. With 128 shots before Saturday action, Hughes was in the top five in that category. Despite that effort, Hughes’ shots per game total is actually down from 4.4 SOG/GP last season to 3.7 SOG/GP this season. (dec20)

3. Anze Kopitar keeps chugging along, as he was scoring at over a point per game (37 PTS in 32 GP entering Saturday action), something he hasn’t done since the 2017-18 season. Kopitar is not usually a point-per-game scorer anyway, but he has very consistently scored at a 60-75-point full-season pace for a significant portion of his career. He’s very easy to make projections for, and a nice surprise this season. Meanwhile, teammate Kevin Fiala was on pace for just 53 points. It is worth mentioning that he has been stronger in the second half than the first half for much of his career, which could mean he’s worth waiting it out for. (dec20)

4. Kaapo Kakko made his Kraken debut on Thursday against Chicago. Even though he was held without a point in 13 minutes of icetime, Kakko was handed a spot on the top line with Jared McCann and Matty Beniers. He had to settle for Seattle’s second-unit power play, though.

Kakko is worth at least adding to your watch list in the event that he can come closer to reaching his draft-day potential (although he will probably never reach it). We’ll find out soon enough if a change of scenery is what he needed. For more, Cliffy wrote the Fantasy Take for the Kakko trade. (dec20)

5. Linus Ullmark continues to be a must-start. Entering Saturday, his win on Thursday was his seventh in a row and ninth consecutive quality start. Over that seven-game win streak, Ullmark didn't allow more than two goals in a game, posting a sparkling 0.99 GAA and .967 SV% over that two-week span. Now that they have a legitimate starting goalie, the Senators are looking like a playoff team in an Atlantic Division that has been difficult to crack for a few seasons. (dec20)

6. Whether it’s because of their personal differences or simply an out-of-the-box strategy from Rick Tocchet, separating J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson so that they’re not on the power play at the same time hasn’t moved the needle for the Canucks. Simply put, the Canucks’ top two forwards aren’t playing like their top two forwards at the moment. Entering Saturday, Pettersson was without a point in his last five games, which is when Miller returned from his leave. While Miller was gone for 10 games, Pettersson picked up 15 points. Miller himself was also without a point in his last three games.

7. A feud between Miller and Pettersson may not necessarily affect their overall results – even if it seems that it will. Remember Shaq and Kobe? Teams have been successful even if their top stars aren’t exactly the best of friends. Yet if the on-ice results aren’t there, it’s easy to assume that the two not getting along is reaching a boiling point and is thus at least part of the reason. (dec20)

8. After being called up from the AHL recently, Matt Murray made his season debut on Friday, stopping 24 of 27 shots in the Leafs’ 6-3 win in Buffalo. Murray last played in an NHL game in April 2023, missing time due to bilateral hip surgery and then starting this season in the AHL. Regardless of the fantasy implications, this is a nice story of perseverance. Anthony Stolarz is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks, so two-time Stanley Cup winner Murray has an opportunity for more work as Joseph Woll‘s backup. Murray has a 1.85 GAA and .931 SV% in eight AHL games with the Marlies, so don’t be surprised if he makes a case to stick around – if he can stay healthy. (dec21)

9. With the Sabres struggling mightily, the trade winds have been blowing around Buffalo. One player that makes sense for teams to call about is Alex Tuch, who brings both size and speed to the table. Tuch might even be a bit of a buy low, as he has been held to just a single point over his last seven games. Surprisingly, Tuch was still tied for the Sabres’ team lead in scoring with 25 points in 33 games entering Saturday action. (dec21)

10. In Tuesday’s Ramblings, I went over some players I was high on in the preseason that are finding success in 2024-25. The week before, we discussed players I was low on that are succeeding, and players I was high on that aren’t living up to expectations. Today, we’ll round out the quartet by reviewing some players I was low on who have also not come through for fantasy owners yet. As a quick reminder, when talking about preseason projections, all players were projected for 82 games played. We will exclude players with injuries like Mats Zuccarello or Mathew Barzal. (At time of writing:)

Sidney Crosby

Things will vary from league to league, but Crosby’s ADP in standard Yahoo! leagues was around 25^th overall, while Underdog Fantasy had him going around the 36^th pick. That means he was often a third-round pick in those leagues. My personal rankings had him as the 46^th skater on my board, so outside the top-50 when including the top goalies. While the production projections were good – 34 goals and 56 assists – the overarching problem was elsewhere: My power play point projection was for 23, with fewer than 100 hits and 40 blocks. So far this season, he’s on pace for 20 power play points, 80 hits, and 40 blocks. Not far off.

Crosby’s season would look markedly different if he weren’t shooting 7.8%; he would be over a point-per-game player if he were shooting even 12%. On the flipside, his secondary assist rate at 5-on-5 is the highest it has been in a decade. Even if his shooting percentage improves, a decline in those secondary assists could balance out his point total. He should get better from here on out, but it’s not a guarantee, and paying off a third-round pick is uncertain, let alone meaningfully profit from it. (dec19)

11. Owen Tippett

Going into Wednesday night’s game, Tippett had nine goals and seven assists in 31 games. A big problem is landing just 42.1% of his shot attempts on goal – that number was 53.1% last year. If he can just start landing more shots on target, his goals per minute might return to where it was across the last two campaigns, but we have to see it happen first because the ratio of shot attempts/shots on goal is down across the league.

As it is, Tippett is pacing for 24 goals, 19 assists, 212 shots, and 138 hits. My preseason projection was for 31 goals, 26 assists, 273 shots, and 158 hits. Even that projection had him around the 100^th skater on my board, but he had an ADP of 77^th overall on Yahoo! and 54^th on Underdog. As it is, he’s likely not a top-150 player in just about any format.

Like Crosby, a big problem in my projections was a lack of power-play points. If Tippett were hitting the net more often, maybe he’d be pacing for 30 goals, but the lack of power-play production was always going to cap his upside. Maybe Philadelphia’s power play turns around in the second half, but it’s largely been more of the same for most of the team, Tippett included. (dec19)

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12. The Midseason Guide will be available on January 16! The plan is no different from previous seasons, where you’ll receive second-half projections, insider tips, goaltending, peripheral stats, trade block, fantasy prospects, and plenty of analytics. It’s all there for you again. 

Reserve your copy here, so you have it ready in time to make that strong second-half push in your fantasy league.      

13. I was thinking about Kirill Kaprizov's season and how many are calling him the shoe-in for the Hart Trophy. He was an early second round pick in most leagues, and is tough to hit a bigger home run than that in a draft. It led me into who my top and bottom five draft picks were this year across my four leagues where there's at least half of the team re-drafted every year. 

Best draft picks (at time of writing):

Kirill Kaprizov – Tough to say much more about him. He won't be available again at 15th overall in any drafts for the next few years. 

Jack Eichel – A bit of a dark horse Hart candidate at this point, especially compared to the name right above him, but getting Eichel in drafts around pick 50 when he has been a top-20 player in healthy seasons was highway robbery. 

Martin Necas – Without argument he is the biggest breakout player of the year so far. He’s no longer pacing for 140 points, but his current 120-point pace gives him some leeway in chasing down the century mark by the end of the year. That would be a remarkable season for someone whose previous career high is 71 points, and who was drafted outside the top 100 in the fall. (dec18)

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14. Entering Saturday, Alex Vlasic had nine points in his last 12 games. Six of those points have come on the power-play as Vlasic has quarterbacked the top unit while Seth Jones was sidelined with a foot injury. Vlasic, who was rostered in just 15% of Yahoo Leagues at time of writing, is also putting up a solid number of shots and blocks right now. (dec16)

15. In last week’s Ramblings, I discussed players I wasn’t high on before the season that are having good-to-great fantasy campaigns, as well as players I was high on that aren’t finding much success.

Today, we’re going to turn things positive. Let’s discuss some players I was high on before the season and are finding fantasy success. When discussing preseason projections, all players were projected for 82 games, so keep that in mind. (At time of writing:)

John Tavares

Different leagues and different league settings will mean different ADPs, but Tavares was somewhere between the 90^th-100^th player off the board in standard Yahoo! leagues and outside the top-100 on Underdog Fantasy. My preseason projection was the 36^th skater off the board, projecting for 32 goals and 41 assists with 273 shots. His 82-game paces this season are 41 goals, 36 assists, and 271 shots. Overall, he is not far from what I had. The hat trick on Sunday helps.

The bet was that a player who had six straight seasons of at least 11% shooting would not shoot 10.4% again, and that Toronto’s offence would be as good, if not better, than it was in 2023-24. So far, so good, as he’s a top-40 player in both standard Yahoo! leagues and ESPN points formats. It is notable he has just one (1) power play assist after averaging 16 PPAs across his prior three seasons. Even if his shooting percentage declines a bit, I bet he picks up some more helpers along the way. (dec17)

16. Dylan Guenther

It has been an outstanding start to Guenther’s first full NHL season with 13 goals, 16 assists, and 74 shots in 30 games. That is a 36-goal, 44-assist, 202-shot pace over a full season. My preseason projection was for 31 goals, 36 assists, and 218 shots in an 82-game campaign. Like Tavares, a little off on goals and assists, but in a good way, and close to the shot rate expectation. When removing players who were injured going into the season (Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Patrik Laine, Boone Jennner, etc.), Guenther was 101^st overall on my board. His Yahoo! ADP was outside the top-150 players, but Underdog was closer at about 112^th. So far, he’s a top-40 player in Yahoo! standard formats and a top-60 player on ESPN.

There are concerns here. He is shooting 17.6%, which is probably a bit high. Also, he’s averaging less than 16 minutes a game in his last 10 games. It will be hard to maintain his goal, assist, and shot rates if he’s skating 15:30-16:00 per game as opposed to the 16:30-17:00 he was skating in the 15 games prior. Nonetheless, a tremendous start and if he can earn a bit more ice time, there’s a very good fantasy season waiting here. (dec17) 

17. Robert Thomas

This is cheating a bit because Thomas did miss significant time due to injury. However, he does have 6 goals, 17 assists, and 39 shots in 20 games. That works out to 25 goals, 70 assists, and 160 shots in a full season. My projection was for 27 goals, 62 assists, and 170 shots in an 82-game effort, which is awfully close to what he’s done so far. Due to the games missed, he hasn’t been a successful overall fantasy option, but on a per-game basis, he’s been a top-50 player in ESPN points formats. If he can keep doing this and stay healthy from here on out, he may even pay off his Yahoo! ADP of a 10^th-round pick.

The good news is that by things we typically look to for signs of regression – high individual or team shooting percentages, abnormally high individual points percentage – Thomas’s season doesn’t stand out in any particular way. In other words, he could very well be an 80-point player if he stays healthy, even with a dozen games missed. It is hard to complain about what he’s done when he’s been on the ice. (dec17)

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18. In his first NHL game since February 2023, Dustin Tokarski came away with the win last Monday, stopping 27 of the 28 shots Columbus threw his way. Tokarski signed a two-way deal with Carolina a couple weeks ago and was called up after a strong five-game stint in the AHL. The 35-year-old netminder doesn’t have great career numbers, but he’s also never played behind a defense of Carolina’s caliber.

19. Will Cuylle has been one of the few bright spots in New York this year. The 22-year-old forward is scoring at a 62-point pace this season. He’s especially valuable in leagues that track hits, averaging four per game. Cuylle is currently scoring on 18.3% of his shots and will be hard pressed to maintain that rate all year, but extra ice time could offset some of that regression as the campaign continues.

20. 22-year-old Jesper Wallstedt got his first start of the season last week, as Filip Gustavsson was dealing with a minor injury. Wallstedt stopped 24 of the 27 shots he faced but came away with the loss in a close contest with Vegas. 

21. Columbus forward Yegor Chinakhov has missed three weeks with an upper-body injury. It is unfortunate for him, but also because Kent Johnson has missed 14 games and Dmitri Voronkov has missed nine. In fact, the team has only had those three, and Kirill Marchenko, in the lineup for 3/32 games this season. It is a nice group of top-6 wingers and any two of them could help out Adam Fantilli.  

In the good news department, Chinakhov was back at practice for Columbus on Wednesday. Chinakhov had seven goals and seven assists in 21 games before his injury. The Blue Jackets have three games left (Thursday, Saturday, Monday) before the holiday break. (dec19)

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Be sure to also grab your copy of the 2024 Dobber Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report!

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Have a good week, folks!

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