In honor of the midpoint of the season we are taking a look at player rankings. More specifically we are comparing current rankings to preseason rankings to review which players have seen their fortunes change since the start of the season.

The data points for this review come from a few places. The current ranks are based on the Top 300 Rank compiled through the Dobber Reports section. The comparison is a ranking of the average draft position (ADP) for each player. These ADPs are a combination of Yahoo and Fantrax ADPs. The basic comparison can be seen below.

Connor McDavid leads the way for the top 300 rank even though he is currently trailing the points leader Nathan MacKinnon by 11 points. He also had the highest average draft position across the two platforms. For both Nikita Kucherov and Leon Drasaitl, we can see that their current rank is higher than their ADP implying that they are slightly more valuable at this point than they were expected to be during the draft season.

Obviously, there are slight discrepancies in this comparison as there are many kinds of leagues that will value different aspects of performance or positional eligibility. We won't be spending a lot of time looking at the small shifts as highlighted above, but the method does give us a decent indication of big shifts in player value though and it is those we will be highlighting.

First up let's take a look at players who have seen the biggest increase in their rankings. The following table shows the same data as above, with the addition of a change column indicating how many ranking spots the player has gained or lost over that time.

It is hard to argue with Marco Rossi topping this list. While we have been awaiting Rossi for a couple of seasons, his 40-point pace from 2023-24 wasn't the most optimistic beginning. His current 74-point pace puts that to shame. The ADPs clearly didn't take into account Rossi's consistent exposure to Kirill Karpizov which is the ideal deployment in Minnesota.

I am going to lump Kirill Marchenko, William Eklund, and Leo Carlsson all sort of in the same boat in terms of ADP. We had seen flashes from each of them in the past, but their lack of consistency or track record certainly pushed them down the draft board. Marchenko and Eklund at least have provided strong production to date. Leo Carlsson maintains his relevance on the Top 300 list mostly for his potential as he has lost overall time on ice, and is currently producing at a 36-point pace. It is not an ideal situation for Carlsson. The optimism here is Carlsson's pedigree and hope for Anaheim’s future. 

Matty Beniers also could be doing better. He makes the list definitely due to some young player/blue chip prospect optimism. Though to be fair he has turned it on a bit recently. He has been getting over 18 minutes a night since November 30th and has put up a 55-point pace during that stretch.

On the flip side we have quite a few D who are losing out in these rankings. That will have something to do with the differences in sources, but I think there is a pretty clear rationale here for almost all of them.

Gustav Forsling had a great playoff run and with a clear opening on Florida's top power play there was a fair amount of optimism going into the season. He has not been given the power-play opportunity though, and a rotating cast seems to have finally settled on Aaron Ekblad (at least until he was injured). Decent ice time and peripherals are still there, but many seemed to have had hopes for more which has not materialized.

Similarly, Brock Faber and Mike Matheson went into the season as the expected top power-play quarterback, and with good reason. Both maintained that position for the majority of the 2023-24 season. Flash forward and both have lost that deployment, and therefore a lot of value. Neither seem in a position to retake that role for now so the drop in rank seems appropriate.

Mackenzie Weegar on the other hand seems to be by and large doing what managers could have hoped for. There has been a little more of a split top power play in Calgary at times than was projected and maybe the point production isn't quite what we wanted, but generally, Weegar is having a successful season. Some of the gap might be inflated expectations, but a lot is probably Weegar's particular value set. Weegar consistently provides cross category contributions and the potential of a top power-play role as well made him an ideal D man in a lot of fantasy formats. The Top 300 Ranks don't necessarily take all of that into account.

Finally, let's look at players who were not drafted but are highly ranked in the top 300.

Conor Garland makes the list because of some excellent deployment. He wasn't necessarily expected to land in the top six and on the top power play with that spot projected for Jake DeBrusk, but by and large Garland has gotten top deployment all season. It has resulted in about five more minutes in total ice time alongside the top players in Vancouver.

Cole Perfetti has also seen an increase in deployment in terms of time on ice to previous years, playing on a second line with Nikolaj Ehlers and occasionally on the top power-play. His change is not as dramatic as Garland, but his youth and this deployment bump certainly increases his value.

Zach Benson hasn't had the most productive season thus far, though has been more effective since the end of November. Since November 29th he has been playing over 15 minutes a night and has been putting up a 40 point pace. There is optimism there, but some of the ranking here is definitely not yet realized potential.

That is all for this week.

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