Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Jeff)

I’m in rebuild mode in my points only league, where we keep 12 plus four prospects. My defense is a mess but I’ve got some good long term prospects in Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium and Cole Hutson. I also have Lane Hutson, who'd count as a prospect.

I feel I have three easy keeps, those being Dylan Guenther, Wyatt Johnston, and Logan Stankhoven. My other possible keepers are Brandon Hagel, Alexis Lafreniere, Kevin Fiala, Marco Rossi, Pavel Buchnevich, Matty Beniers, Roman Josi, Nick Schmaltz, Morgan Frost, Igor Shesterkin and Dustin Wolf. I was thinking of selling Josi, Shesterkin, and/or Wolf at the deadline or next year’s draft. What would you do in my shoes?

I count 14 players, so two would not be keepers. If you make no trades, I'd not keep Schmaltz and probably Frost.

Both are not "bad" by any means, but in Schmaltz you have a player who's older than nearly everyone else and whose scoring, although still quite decent, is down a notch due to losing ice time to younger players. Frost seems like he has talent, but John Tortorella is not the coach for him. I think there is a chance that if a new coach comes in, or Frost is traded, he could thrive; but you need to find drops somewhere, and I just don't see him as a keep over the other choices. Some might think Buchnevich is the drop; however, he seems to be turning things around and is only two seasons removed from a point per game campaign. If you truly believe in Frost though, I can get behind keeping him over Buchnevich. Personally though, I would not, as too much would have to go right for Frost and wrong for Buchnevich, plus Frost is 25 already, so it's not like he's that much younger than Buchnevich.

Trading Josi would be a fine idea……..if it was a year ago. As I pointed out in a recent column, he is one of only four defensemen to ever have two or more point per game seasons between ages 30 and 33, with the other three being Ray Bourque, Raul Coffey, and Larry Murphy. Although Bourque had a stellar season at the same age Josi is now, he went downhill after that, and the other two didn't even have another 55 point season again. I fear you may have missed your sell high window with Josi. If he does ignite, trade him, and do it ASAP. Yes, he may prove to be an exception to the "rule" and hit his stride again, but I like going with the odds, and those are against Josi.

This is not a cap league, so Shesterkin is an enticing player to dangle in trade. There too though the time may have been a year ago. Shesterkin is young enough though, and has been superb for enough seasons that other GMs would still give you good value in return. Still, I would not trade him unless I get top tier talent coming back, as Shesterkin is a true #1 who has a solid track record, which is perhaps the most precious commodity in fantasy hockey nowadays. In other words, I'd be content to keep him, either to still be there when your team improves, or to trade for higher value once he gets back to his usual form.

I don't see a lure in trading Wolf, as he has looked impressive at times and is held in high regard, plus GMs are rightfully wary enough to not bet big on unproven goalies. With him I'd hold and hope. If he does end up great, then Shesterkin becomes all the more easy to stomach trading.

I continue to maintain that Rossi has the deck stacked against him as a center who is small in stature, since simply put it is very, very rare for them to find success, and even when they have – most recently Daniel Briere and Derek Roy – they don't do amazing. Yes, Rossi playing this well might keep him in the top-six, and he could continue to produce; but remember that the Wild can spend freely this summer for the first time ever, so they might grab another center. Also, Rossi is doing this while Joel Eriksson Ek has been largely out of the lineup, and Ryan Hartman has been ice cold. It almost reminds me of Brock Faber last season in that everything that could be going right for Rossi is, and I'd definitely consider selling high on him. Of course past results don't ensure future outcomes; but with so few examples of diminutive centers succeeding I'd be worried about holding Rossi and would strongly consider trading him. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Mark)

I'm in an 16 team, H2H, kepp 18 league with categories of G, A, +/-, PPG, PPA, SHP, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, Games Started, W, L, GA, GAA, SA, SV, SV%, SHO. As I write this, my roster is as follows:

C: Adam Fantilli, Bo Horvat, Leon Draisaitl, Quinton Byfield. Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan, Elias Petterson

LW: Zach Benson, Kent Johnson, Kiefer Sherwood, Connor McMichael

RW: Tanner Jeannot, Martin Pospisil, Claude Giroux, Timo Meier

C: Lane Hutson, Owen Power, Brock Faber, Luke Hughes, Brandt Clarke, Seth Jones, Radko Gudas

G: Yaroslav Askarov, Jeremy Swayman, Juuse Saros, Scott Wedgewood

NA: Ivan Demidov, Zeev Buim

As I write this, I'm in 10th place, so I'm looking ahead. Which players would you look into trading and who would you try to target as players to acquire? And should I consider trying to tank to get a better first round pick for 2025?

Your team seems to have fallen into the trap of focusing too much on categories and not on scoring. I'm sure you're crushing it in FOW and are quite solid in HIT as well. Beyond Draisaitl you have no top-tier talent. I realize this league has a lot of categories, and I'm not saying ito gnore them, but don't make the mistake of building around them. Remember that every goal or assist can count for two separate categories, or even three if a SHP (goal/assist, SHP, +/-). Also, players who are strong scorers also tend to shoot a lot, giving you SOG too. Sometimes you can get players who produce well plus hit and block or give you FOW and another non-scoring category; however, they are rare, and usually have a steep price to draft or trade. Get your scorers, then worry about the rest, not the other way around, as appears to have occurred here.

I agree your goalies have let you down; however, I'm not loving your D either. I maintain that Faber is more of a Cam Fowler type for whom, as noted above, everything possible went right last season. I've also said a number of times that Hughes' lack of SOG, plus his dependence on PPPts in his rookie season, are very much a concern in that they put him in the company of the likes of Matt Carle and Will Butcher. But he has the Hughes name, and is doing better of late. I'd move both of them in a heartbeat.

I'd also dangle Sherwood out there. Look no further than Jeannot to see how someone who was seen as a hitter who could also score turns into just a hitter. Remember that Dakota Joshua was in much the same role for Vancouver last season, but where is he now though? I'm sure at least a couple of GMs would jump at the chance to get Sherwood in trade, so I'd leverage him to get a scorer.

Horvat also seems like a "safe" trade because he basically is what he is, and he'd get you true value. Yes, he scores and wins tons of faceoffs, but you have to give to get, and I feel like he could be turned into one or more better assets, with future potential.

Who to target? Noah Dobson is having enough of a down year for his owners to perhaps not be sold on him being as good as he was last season. But his metrics were solid in 2023-24, and he should be obtainable for far less than his true value.

I also like getting Trevor Zegras. His owner likely is fed up, but Zegras's first two seasons put him in very elite oompany and I like his chances to turn things around once he's able to stay healthy for a good stretch of time.

Dylan Cozens also could be a good grab, as although the Sabres have many forwards, most are wings, making it so Cozens is all but assured to stay in the top six. I also still believe in Owen Tippett, who let's not forget had the fourth most SOG per 60 minutes last season, with those ahead of him being Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Filip Forsberg. He should right his ship, and you want him on your team when he does.

The upside of Jake Neighbours appeals to me too, as while many saw his "Cy Young" numbers from last season as a concern, players who had similar totals in one of their first three seasons actually went on to fare quite well, and he remains in the top-six and on PP1 despite not performing as well. Also, Dobson's teammate Mathew Barzal's stock likely is a low as it will be again, and I like that he's a huge focal point. Lastly, I don't think you tank to try to get the top pick, since others lower than you will be doing the same, making it unlikely you'd succeed.  Good luck!

Question #3 (from Alex)

Here's a straightforward question, but one I suspect will not be so simple to answer. What factors do you use to decide which goalie to start in a H2H league when you have more options than spots, and assuming there are daily changes?

Great question, and one I'm surprised has never been asked previously. There are a lot of factors for sure, but let me say this right from the start – nothing is always going to be 100% reliable in this era of unpredictable goalies. For me, it's all about playing the odds, but with useful information factored in.

First and foremost, categories matter. If it's just a Wins league, you make the decision based as much if not more so on the team than the goalie. That's why a year ago Alexandar Georgiev was a must start even as he struggled mightily, since the team in front of him was so great and was a safe bet to score enough to win in spite of, rather than due to, Georgiev. But most leagues don't have just wins as a category. Even then though, wins likely will matter most. Often you'll need to factor in SVs or SV%, and if there is GAA or instead a negative for each goal allowed. There, you play the percentages and go with whoever fits the categories best. There can be exceptions though, and I'll cover those next.

One thing I like to look at is how the goalie fares on howevr many days rest he'll be getting in this instance, as you'd be surprised how much that metric can impact performance. All things being otherwise equal, I'll also take the goalie playing at home versus one who's on the road. But suppose one goalie is playing a team on the second night of a back-to-back, while another is playing a rested team? If that is the case, I'll usually opt for the goalie who'll be facing facing the team on the second leg of a B2B, since that team might be more apt to be tired. Also, you may have a situation where two of your goalies are facing each other. If so, and you're ahead for the week, I'd be inclined to start both of them, to get a guaranteed win; otherwise, I'd try instead to get wins from two separate goalies.

Since saves and/or SV% are almost always important, you should look at the team they play for, and how many shots they give up, and the team they're playing, and how many shots they average. Yes, the gap between the teams that shoot the most versus the least, and the teams that allow the most shots versus the least is only about eight, but that can matter, especially if you need SVs or SV% to offset GA.

I also do put weight on Quality Start Percentage and Really Bad Start Percentage. But be careful, since some goalies who don't have a high percentage of Quality Starts also are rarely awful, like Juuse Saros, who despite having only a 50% QS% also only has four Really Bad Starts, with the only goalie who has appeared in more games who has fewer Really Bad Starts being the venerable Connor Hellebuyck. On the flip side, nearly two-thirds of Igor Shesterkin's starts have been Quality Starts, but he's also had seven Really Bad Starts. Do give this consideration, as maybe you need to roll the dice, or you want to start a goalie who's more of a "steady eddie."

Another very good predictor is average shots distance.  Who are the goalies who face shots from the farthest distance? Try Hellebuyck, Sergie Bobrovsky, Jacob Markstrom, and Joey Daccord. So I do put stock in that stat, but again as more of a tiebreaker than as the sole way to decide. That is a good way to sum things up, with a reminder that no matter how much you dissect the numbers to make what is seemingly an informed choice, in the end very few goalies are ever a lock to win. But if you've done the best you could in making assessments, at least you can take solace in that even if what you decided turns out to be incorrect. 

Question #4 (from Eric)

In a keeper league with rosters of 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2G, plus 4 Bench, and categories and scoring consisting of (G=3, A= 2, plus/minus = 0.25, PIM = 0.5, PPG=1, PPA=0.5, SHG=3, SHA=2, GWG=1, SOG=0.5, Faceoff Win = 0.1, FL=-0.05, HT= 0.5 and BLK=0.75; Games started = 1, Wins = 3, Losses = -2, GA = -1, Save = 0.275, Shutout = 4), who would you rather own going forward Juuse Saros or MacKenzie Blackwood?

Here's what's so great about fantasy hockey. A question like this would've been unfathomable at the start of the season; but a change of scenery for one, and a poor season for the other, illustrates that with precious few exceptions goalies are so unpredictable in this day and age.

No question Blackwood's outlook is quite good. Not only did the the Avs trade for him, but they waited almost no time to show their faith in him in the form of a five year deal where he will earn $5.25M per season. That is a far bigger vote of confidence than what Colorado showed in Alexandar Georgiev, as although they paid a pretty steep price in terms of what they gave up in trade to get Georgiev, he was inked to only a three year deal and paid $3.4M per season.

Although $5.25M per season is a lot of money, let's not forget that Jack Campbell was earning that much and he got bought out. Also, consider the likes of John Gibson, Philipp Grubauer, Elvis Merzlikins, Tristan Jarry, and Ville Husso, all of whom are earning right around what Blackwood is set to make and either are no longer the true starter on their team or have a tenuous grip on the starting role. In other words, Blackwood is making a good bit of money, but not enough to make him incapable of being pushed aside if he falters. 

What might the future hold for Blackwood? For someone on some very bad teams, and with more seasons with a 3.00+ GAA than not, only once was his GSAA a double digit negative. Also, his SV% numbers have always been pretty solid. Even still, three other goalies dating back to 2000-01 had a career SV% of .900+ despite a career GAA above 3.00 after playing 200+ career games as Blackwood at theo start of the season: Mark Denis, Merzlikins, and Joonas Korpisalo. In the case of Korpisalo, the thought was he would be able to show his true talent upon going to a better team in Boston; however, thus far it's largely been more of the disappointing same, so this does not bode well for Blackwood.

As for Saros, it's a testament to how great a goalie he is that he has a positive GSAA, and that despite only having nine total wins, nearly half are shutouts. His GAA is also at a three year low, and his SV%, though low for him, is still pretty decent considering his situation. He also has had one Really Bad Start per every eight starts, and still maintains a 50% Quality Start percentage. It's quite remarkable how he is not doing much worse all things considered, and is a testament to his skill as a netminder.

Still, wins are huge in this league, and losses are very costly. But Saros is a proven workshorse, and games started help offset losses. At this point, I'd say Saros has a far, far higher floor, but perhaps a lower ceiling. Also, it might seem like Blackwood is younger, but he barely is, so they should both have similar career trajectories. In the end, Saros is a proven workhorse who at worst is a true #1, while Blackwood is a goalie who's seemingly played better than his numbers would suggest, but for whom player comparsons are not favorable. He also is not being paid so much, nor is signed for so long, as to make him immune to being pushed aside. Give me Saros here. Good question!

Question #5 (from Guillaume)

What's going on with Anaheim's young defensemen? It looks like Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov have ben unable to gain a firm foothold, and meanwhile the less heralded Jackson LaCombe has found a groove. What do you see as the long term trajectory for all three?

I can understand where you're coming from, as on the one hand the Ducks have seemed to pave the way for the highly touted Zellweger and/or Mintyukov to succeed, first by dealing Jamie Drysdale and then most recently Cam Fowler. Yet neither one has stepped up, and instead, as you noted, LaCombe is doing the best of the three and also being used as the PP1 QB. The question though, as you rightfully posed, is where do things go from here?

LaCombe has more points – 14 – in his last 19 games than either of the other two have for the season. As I write this, he has 16 SOG in just his last four games, plus 24:00+ in TOI in three of his last five contests. No question that for now, he is "the guy" when it comes to blueline offense for the Ducks.

But in Mintyukov you have a former top ten overall pick, while Zellweger posted 37 points in 44 AHL games at age 20. Although those don't ensure success, they do make both more "golden boys" than LaCombe, who let's not forget is roughly three years older than the other two.

As we saw last season with Leo Carlsson, Anaheim seems to be taking a cautious approach with its top tier prospects, figuring there is no hurry to throw them into the mix and expect them to carry a heavy load and shoulder a heavy burden. Instead, they are being eased into things, in hopes they can naturally hit their stride while minimizing the risk of them getting overwhelmed or facing adversity that might cut into the confidence level. Perhaps they learned their lesson with John Gibson?

But one area we can use to perhaps get a better idea of Anaheim's future plans is OZ%, as Mintyukov's is below 40%, while Zellweger is close to 60% and LaCombe is in between the two. Although one could say this signifies Anaheim sees Zellweger as needing more sheltering, it's certainly a better sign for him than the low percentage for Mintyukov. Moreover, although LaCombe has been firing pucks on net of late, Zellweger's 2.3 SOG per game is quite solid given his TOI, such that his SOG per 60 minutes places him in the top-ten among all defensemen who've played 15+ games, although LaCombe is in the top-30 too.

The picture I'm seeing is one where Zellweger is showing signs of offensive flair and, based on his OZ%, is being put into a position to succeed when he does play. Yet for now, the Ducks are content to have LaCombe be a focal point. I'd say that in the next couple of seasons Zellweger will see an increasing role, with LaCombe's role decreasing, or at least his PP role. As for Mintyukov, despite the fact that the Ducks have a higher 5×5 team SH% with him than the other two, I still think this is a sign he is third in the pecking order. But top-ten picks get very long leashes, so I'd say all is not lost. Nevertheless, Zellweger strikes me as the "chosen one" whose time will eventually come, whereas Mintyukov might be second banana, assuming LaCombe doesn't force Anaheim's hand. Good question! 

Question #6 (from DobberHockey Forums)

In a 10 team, keep 6, H2H league with categories of G, A, SOG, PPPts, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, SV% and SO, and four weekly minimum goalie starts, and rosters of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Util, 4D, 3G, 2IR+, 1NA a team is in first place with the following roster:

C: Robert Thomas, Marco Rossi, Roope Hintz
LW: Leon Draisaitl (also C eligible), Tim Stutzle (C), Matthew Knies, Jake DeBrusk (RW)
RW: Mitch Marner, Timo Meier (LW), Kirill Marchenko, Anton Lundell (C)

D: Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Rasmus Dahlin, Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, Luke Schenn
G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Filip Gustavsson, MacKenzie Blackwood
I/R: Kirill Kaprizov, Jeremy Lauzon

The GM has been approached about trading Gustavsson to get Igor Shesterkin, but the rival GM wants Dahlin too, tossing in Noah Dobson. The GM had planned to keep Draisaitl, Kaprizov, Dahlin, Makar and two of Marner, Stutzle, Bouchard, or to try and turn the three into two better keepers. If the GM got Shesterkin, they'd plan to keep him; but they've found success in not keeping goalies, and they are concerned about not keeping a top tier skater. What should they do?

First off, I'm doing what I can to trade Gus for Shesterkin, and that's whether Shesterkin is a keeper or not. With all due respect to Gus, he's yet to string two great seasons together and looming is one of the top goalie prospects in Jesper Wallstedt. Shesterkin, on the other hand, just inked an $11.5M extension, and is as sure of a #1 goalie as there can be. But so is Vasilevsky; and as I mentioned in several of my columns this summer, I did feel Vasy could rebound as he has, since for the first time in ages he wasn't; either rehabbing in the offseason or coming off a long playoff run.

Looking at league parameters, goalies account for 21% of rosters and 30% of scoring categories, meaning at least one "should" be kept. Of course, when you have the likes of Draisaitl, Kaprizov, Makar, Marner, Bouchard, Dahlin, and Stutzle, a compelling case could be made to not keep a netminder, After all, having not kept one, look at the goalies you did get. I realize Bouchard has taken a step back; but this is a player who scored at a 91 point pace from the 2023 playoffs through the 2024 playoffs. He might not be Makar, but I wouldn't put him too far behind.

If you keep six superstar skaters, that's more than half your active line-up, which is huge. Although there are ten teams, the four goalie start minimum suggests that some likely won't load up at the position, making even Shesterkin an iffier keeper than normal.

My advice would be to indeed trade Gus to try and get Shesterkin, but without parting with Dahlin or Bouchard if at all possible. What about Marner? I realize he's a "sure thing" kind of player; but he is performing better than he has in all but one prior season, and I think now is the time to try to use that to your advantage. You'd lose Marner and Gus, but get Shesterkin, who you can either keep or ransom off. My guess is he and/or Vasy, plus Stutzle, will be able to land you someone better than Marner or Stutzle if you were to trade them in the offseason. If you feel keeping a goalie is in your best interest, then you'll have that option.

Yes, trade Gus, unless it costs you Dahlin or Bouchard, which is too steep of a price. If that means no deal can be made, then you keep your core and reassess in the offseason. Good luck! 

************************

I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to sent them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.