Ramblings: Habs Hot; Devils Not; Forsberg vs. Meriläinen (Jan 20)
Brennan Des
2025-01-20
In his 39th NHL game, Zack Ostapchuk, the 39th pick of the 2021 draft, scored his first goal in the big leagues. He's not getting enough ice time to be valuable in fantasy leagues this year but is averaging roughly two hits per game if you're in the deepest of banger leagues.
Heading into Sunday's dance with the Devils, Anton Forsberg's job was in jeopardy. He'd lost five straight starts, posting a save percentage below .850 in four of those five outings. In contrast, 22-year-old Leevi Merilainen was 4-0-1 in his last five, allowing two or fewer in four of those games.
With more than just two points on the line for Forsberg, he brought his A-game, stopping 25 of the 26 shots New Jersey threw his way. With Linus Ullmark travelling with the team and nearing a return from injury, it'll be interesting to see if the Senators opt to roll with three goalies or risk losing Forsberg on waivers. In my mind, the most likely outcome is sending Merilainen down to the AHL because he doesn't need to clear waivers and there'd be no risk of losing him, plus he'd be able to get more reps in the AHL. Ullmark is undoubtedly the team's starter when healthy, and it doesn't seem beneficial to Merilainen's development to just ride the bench in Ottawa while Ullmark sees the lion's share of action. Forsberg hasn't been great in recent years, but given his experience and strong showing on Sunday, it might makes more sense to keep him around as a safety net/benchwarmer at this point.
Despite the offensive firepower oozing from their roster, the Devils have really struggled to score in recent weeks. Since December 28th, they've managed just 1.82 goals per game. That's the second lowest average during this span as only San Jose's offense has been worse (1.80 goals per game). With such serious scoring struggles, it's no surprise that New Jersey has won just three of 11 games during this stretch.
A drop off in power-play success is partially to blame as NJ has only converted on 15.4% of their opportunities during this period. Before this dry spell, they ranked second in the league with a 31.2% success rate over 38 games. When a highly talented PP unit with proven chemistry struggles in a small sample after thriving in a large sample, I'm inclined to believe they'll bounce back. Even though the pucks haven't been going in recently, their expected goals per 60 on the power play still ranks second in the league (via NaturalStatTrick). If they keep doing what they're doing, the results will start to reflect their strong process. That said, it's worth noting that Dougie Hamilton doesn't have a single power-play point during this 11-game stretch, so if the team wanted to shake things up, swapping Hamilton for Luke Hughes on the top unit might make sense.
With an assist on Sunday, Shane Pinto now has six points in his last six appearances. Less offensive zone deployment has made it harder for him to produce this year, but he sees plenty of ice time and seems to be finding a rhythm after a slow start to the campaign.
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In an entertaining battle between two teams vying for a wild card spot in the East, Montreal pulled out the 5-4 victory in a game they didn't lead until the final horn. Since December 15th, the Canadiens boast a league-best 11-3-1 record, as well as a league-best 3.60 goals per game.
Although you may have felt confident playing your fantasy netminders against the Habs earlier in the season, that decision requires more thought these days. Montreal also ranks eighth in the league with a modest 2.47 goals against per game, which is an amazing improvement considering they were allowing they most goals in the league prior to this 15-game stretch. Their expected goals for and against are much better than earlier in the year, so there's an improved process underlying these improved results.
With the win, rookie netminder Jakub Dobes' record on the season improves to 5-0. Although this game against the Rangers wasn't as impressive as his showings against Florida, Colorado, Washington and Dallas – all of which are playoff teams, mind you – he made a couple of dazzling saves in overtime shortly before Montreal's game-winning goal. His success has come in a small sample thus far but he's outperformed Sam Montembeault over the past month, so we could see them split the net going forward if Dobes can keep this up.
An assist on the game-tying goal gives Lane Hutson 12 points amidst an eight-game point streak. Watching him play, seeing elite offensive creativity and deft movements, you can only expect he'll be one of the highest-scoring blueliners over the next decade. He's up to 27 points in his last 25 games, which makes him a top 25 scorer over the past seven weeks. To be outscoring most forwards, over a quarter of the season, as a 20-year-old rookie defenseman, is ludicrous. I know Macklin Celebrini is having an incredible year in San Jose and is also deserving of the Calder, but Hutson remains my pick as a biased Habs fan.
Juraj Slafkovsky finished the game with a goal and three hits. He's been much more physical this season, averaging 2.37 hits per game after posting 1.84 last year.
Patrik Laine missed the first four games of 2025 due to an illness but has now scored in four of five games since returning to the lineup, including the overtime-winner on Sunday. Remarkably, Laine ranks fourth in the league with 10 power-play goals despite playing less than half the games his competition has played. Laine skated a season-high 20:41 on Sunday. He might not break the 20-minute mark frequently going forward, but it's fair to expect more ice time now that he's starting to settle in after a knee injury delayed his start to the campaign.
After failing to register a point in his previous 13 outings, Will Cuylle finally got the monkey off his back with a goal against the Canadiens. It's probably unfair to blame all of Cuylle's scoring struggles on the trade that sent Kaapo Kakko – a player he had strong chemistry with – out of town. However, it's hard to ignore that Cuylle had 23 points in 31 games (0.74 points/game) before the Kakko trade and just two in 14 (0.14p/g) since.
Mika Zibanejad found the scoresheet for the first time in four games with a goal on Sunday. Just like his last three points, this one came with the man advantage. Since November 27th, Zibanejad has just five points at even-strength through 26 games. There are 385 players in the league with more even-strength points during that span.
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An upper-body injury caused Roope Hintz to miss a third-straight game on Sunday, but he's skating on his own and remains day-to-day.
Mason Marchment was another notable absence for Dallas in Sunday's game. He's skating again following a procedure for an injury that stemmed from a puck to the face in late December.
Jason Robertson's goal on Sunday was his fifth in as many games. After a slow start to the season, he has 27 points over his last 20 appearances. Only five players in the league have more points during that span.
After an incredible start to the season that featured 27 points in his first 22 games, Matt Duchene went quiet for most of December. With two points on Sunday, he's up to 15 in his last 12 and seems to be heating up again.
Jake Oettinger had an excellent showing against Detroit, stopping 33 of the 34 shots thrown his way.
Sunday marked Alex Lyon's first start in almost two weeks because of an upper-body injury. It was far from an ideal outing as he surrendered four goals on 25 shots. Still, Lyon was in good form leading up to the injury and sports a better GSAx than Cam Talbot on the season, so I imagine he'll get another chance to reclaim that 1A role soon.
Marco Kasper scored Detroit's lone goal and continues to thrive in a top-line role. Since joining forces with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, he has four goals and three assists over seven games. That's strong production from the 20-year-old rookie, who was drafted eighth overall in 2022 and is currently rostered in just 2% of Yahoo Leagues.
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Tyler Toffoli won't play against Boston on Monday and is officially day-to-day with a lower-body injury. LBIs also prevented Mikael Granlund and Fabian Zetterlund from practicing on Sunday, making them questionable for Monday's tilt.
For more injury updates, check out Dobber's Player News Feed!
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Thanks for reading! Hope you have an awesome week ahead!