Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Eric)

I'm in a 10 team, non-keeper, points only league. Daily line-ups are 6F, 3D, 1G and categories for skaters are G, A, PPP, SHG, SHA, GWG. I’m currently in 1st place by a decent margin, but have slipped a little lately. I only have 3 d-men on my roster: Zach Werenski, Erik Karlsson, and Shea Theodore. We don’t have an IR spot, so I can’t stash Theodore. As I write this, the available free agent d-men include Noah Hanifin, Bowen Byram, Morgan Rielly, Brock Faber, and Tony DeAngelo 

Trades are near impossible to accomplish in this league, so players I’d consider dropping to make room for this added rearguard are: Elias Pettersson, Roope Hintz, Connor McMichael, Matt Boldy, and Bo Horvat. What should I do here?

Losing Theodore was a blow. Fortunately, Karlsson is still producing decently, and of course Werenski is giving you far more than you anticipated. Also, those are decent options for the waiver wire. In fact, with that many viable choices, you may consider streaming the third D spot. Of course if you have a limit on your number of moves, or somehow the pickings get slimmer, then just grab the best guy. Or maybe that turns out to be the best option regardless. Let's dig deeper to find out.

First, we'll cover who to drop. Pettersson has too much upside. He may spiral downward even further, but you can't pull the plug on him – not yet. McMichael came back to earth in Q2; but rebounded in Q3. I worry since his SOG rate is way down versus earlier in the season, as are his ice times, both overall and on the PP. Still, he is right at his breakout threshold and playing alongside Pierre-Luc Dubois, who seems reborn, and Aliaksei Protas, who most keep waiting to slow but has not. Hintz is out of the question given how scorching he's been, unless the injury he suffered on Saturday is long-term. Boldy is steady and hasn't suffered much despite the absence of Kirill Kaprizov. Horvat was already having a subpar season, and now Mathew Barzal is on LTIR and Brock Nelson is gone, meaning Horvat will be stuck playing with the likes of Anders Lee and Anthony Duclair, at best. Horvat is still shooting a lot, and getting heaps of PP time, but I fear that he’s in the worst “spot” of the four. Given that FOW is not a category, and positions also do not matter, I’m dropping Horvat. It's him or McMichael and I feel like the Caps are just clicking as a team, so Horvat is my drop among your forwards.

As for the d-men, Hanifin has been plugged into Theodore’s spot and is thriving. We saw last season that he has it in him to be a scorer if deployed favorably. Byram hardly shoots, barely sniffs PP time, and is under a point per every other game pace despite the team’s 5×5 team SH% with him on the ice being 11.1%. He's not a guy I’d be looking to grab except if streaming and things are very favorable. Rielly is doing what he always seems to do, which is follow up a solid scoring season with one where he takes a big step back. This time it’s a much bigger step, as even with a recent three-point game he’s not even at a 45-point pace. However, he might be a stream option. DeAngelo is no longer a consideration now that Noah Dobson is back. I wouldn’t touch him, even to stream, as my guess is he’s still the same leopard with the same spots that caused him to have no interest from NHL teams going into this season.

Skjei is on Nashville; and given the train wreck in music city, need I really say more? Well I will, and that is Skjei that is back below a point-per-every-other-game, as he was until last season right before becoming a UFA. Given his outputs before, and now after, inking his new deal, it’s hard not to see his 48-point pace from last season as a “get paid” outlier. I think he’s not someone to consider, even as a stream option. 

As for Faber, I said many times last season could not have gone more right for Faber, and that I worried about when he was not the one and only option for the Wild. Yet Faber has remained the PP1 QB, which is fortunate since he cannot seem to score much outside of the man advantage. Plus, he has a high secondary assist rate, even for a defenseman. I suspect the Wild will look to bring in the likes of Aaron Ekblad or Neal Pionk this offseason when they're finally able to spend, and that will turn Faber into a Cam Fowler type, at best. For now though, he’s not the pick-up and I’d be leery of streaming him. Not entirely opposed – just leery.

In sum, if there is a pick up to be made, I think the clear choice is Hanifin, who seems to be doing a mighty fine imitation of Theodore. The drop would be Horvat. Although I did mention streaming, now that I dug deeper into the choices, I’d say plan to stick with Hanifin; but if he cools, then don’t rule out the idea of turning that third defenseman spot into a stream situation. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Jim)

In a 12 team, points only league where there are few if any trades and with 6C, 8W, 6D, 2G in each team's active line-up and with 10 keepers plus 5 free rookie keepers, meaning they would need enter 2025-26 as a rookie by the NHL's definition, per team, a GM has the following keeper options:

C: Leo Carlsson, Logan Cooley, Adam Fantilli, Jack Hughes, Boone Jenner, Aliaiksei Protas, Will Smith, Gabe Perrault

W: Jackson Blake, Matthew Corronato, Will Cuylle, Dylan Guenther, Kent Johnson, Lucas Raymond, Maxim Tsyplakov, Ivan Demidov, Ryan Leonard

D: Tony DeAngelo, Sean Durzi, Luke Hughes, Quinn Hughes, Jackson LaCombe, Moritz Seider, Artyom Levshunov, Liam Greentree

G: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Joseph Woll, Yaroslav Askarov

Who should I keep? What about possible trades?

I like your ambition, but winning in one year is not happening with this bunch. Even three might be ambitious. I see this as a team to build to be a force in maybe three years, but probably more like five. The good news though is I don’t think that makes a difference in terms of who I’d recommend to keep.

Depending on what happens with Askarov, you might have just six rookies. If Askaraov qualifies though, the rookie drop is a toughie, but I'd probably say Greentree, due to LA and its ice time philosophy.

Let’s start with the for sure non-keeps, headed by DeAngelo. He was unable to get a contract before the season; and although he did not look bad when put into a position to succeed by the Isles, how can you have any faith in him given this track record? Plus, he is 29, so that isn’t ideal for your team’s trajectory. I’m letting Durzi go too, as Mikhail Sergachev is “the guy” in Utah. Durzi showed he could produce in that situation when he was in LA behind Drew Doughty, but he seems to be a point per every other game guy, and that’s not going to cut it when the time comes. I also have no qualms about letting Tsyplakov go. He’s done decently, especially on the offense-starved Isles. But he barely shoots and is certainly not playing so well as to earn himself a larger role. Jenner would perhaps merit consideration if this was not points only; however, since this is not multicat and he’s no spring chicken, he’s for sure a drop.

That strikes me as it for the no-brainer non-keeps. Let's turn next to goalies. Askaraov has a far higher ceiling than Woll or UPL, neither of which are even necessarily going to be the “chosen one” for their teams by the time you’re looking to contend. Truth be told, where 120 non-rookies are kept in total, it’s not clear if even Askarov is a keep if he does not qualify as a rookie keep. Let's see how things are after assessing the skaters though, and put his as a maybe for now.

Looking at your list, four guys strike me as must keeps: Jack and Quinn Hughes, Lucas Raymond, and Moritz Seider. Quinn is amazing in points only and figures to be great for likely another decade. Yes, Jack now is an injury risk and one must wonder if he will be the same after yet another shoulder surgery; however, on this team he has to be kept in hopes of his home run potential. Raymond has come into his own this season and now looks to be every bit the real deal, what with superb PP scoring plus great overall production, and this despite him still not starting even 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone. He also has realistic room to not only shoot more, but also have a higher overall TOI and PPTOI. Seider has seen his OZ% rise to 45%, which, although well higher than last season’s 38%, still can rise quite a bit more. I'm a bit concerned at his low PP IPP, as he is so great at “real life” hockey that if he doesn’t thrive on the PP he might be pushed off that role, in which case his ceiling is a lot lower. But as it stands, he’s doing well and could really explode, so he’s a must keep from where I sit.

That leaves six spots, or five if Askarov is kept as a non-rookie. Two I’m giving to Cooley and Guenther, who have done amazing things this season yet still have lots of room to see more TOI plus have not even hit their breakout thresholds. Guenther in particular has been impressive, in the top 20 among forwards in both points and SOG per 60 minutes, plus with rock solid IPPs. Cooley is right there with him on IPPs, and the two have amazing chemistry, such that they should provide your team with superb production, especially when factoring in their stacking potential.

For the last four spots, it’s between Carlsson, Fantilli, Protas, Smith, Caufield, Coronato, Johnson, Luke Hughes, LaCombe, and perhaps Askarov. I omitted Cuylle and Blake because they seem like at least a notch below the rest, as does Chinakov. Immediately this screams trade to me, although I’m not certain if you’d get many takers, as with only 12 keeps and some of these guys being far from their peak, or perhaps still even question marks, other teams might be unwilling to make a deal.

Assuming you cannot or do not make any trades, the first guy I’m crossing off the list is Luke Hughes. He shoots too little, is stuck – at least for now – behind Dougie Hamilton, and as I’ve noted in this column previously, his percentage of points coming on the PP as a rookie, combined with his low SOG rate, put him in the company of Matt Carle, Will Butcher, and Cam Fowler, which is certainly concerning. I’m probably also letting Protas go because despite his success he’s still not getting any PP time, plus his SH% is still far too high. LaCombe also is not a keep, as although he’s emerged as the go to d-man for the Ducks, I have a hard time envisioning a future where one of if not both of Owen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov push him aside, as they are the anointed ones, not Lacombe.

Call me crazy, but I’m thinking Caufield is a non-keep in view of the options. If he was going to be amazing, I think he’d have shown more signs of it already. His scoring pace is set to rise for the second straight season; but his TOI is going down, as is his SOG rate. I’m also not a fan of his worsening IPP on the PP. He’s a tough non-keep, but I think he’s either trade material or not making the cut. And as much as I think he’s done well given the team around him, I’m not keeping Coronato either. I fear Calgary is not looking like it has the makings of a great team in the near future, which, although it likely ensures Coronato will be a top sixer and on PP1, I’m not sure that’s cuts it when given the other choices.

I want to keep both Fantilli and Johnson not only because they’ve looked great, but they play for the same team and CBJ might be poised to do some great things in the next 5+ years given their skater crop. Smith and Carlsson were disappointing, but have awoken of late, while Askarov still is regarded as someone who could be a true star goalie. If we’ve learned anything about the NHL in the past few seasons, it’s that placing faith in young goalies, even those who are seemingly poised for great success, is just too risky. So Askaraov is my last drop, if he can't be kept as a rookie.

In sum, my non-rookie keepers are Jack and Quinn Hughes, Raymond, Seider, Guenther, Cooley, Fantilli, Johnson, Smith, and Carlsson. Of course this could change if you’re able to make any trades; but I think this is your best ten given your options and trajectory. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Bartosz)

In a H2H 14 team league that counts W, GAA, SV%, SV and SO for goalie categories, I can keep one of Kevin Lankinen, Thatcher Demko, Jusse Saros and Filip Gustavsson. I'm leaning toward Gus, but I'm unsure. With not just the present but also the future in mind, who would you keep and why?

In this day and age, landing on goalie keepers are more difficult than ever. Case in point – if this was a year ago, would anyone have thought that Kevin Lankinen would be among any list of keeper goalies in all but the deepest of deep leagues? Of course not; however, in our current universe where there is far more uncertainty than certainty when it comes to netminders, lo and behold Lankinen does deserve consideration for being kept here.

I raise that because of the five you’ve listed here, there is one and only one of them who has certainty in his favor, and that’s Saros. After all, he inked an extension that will pay him $7.7M per season for eight seasons. That would be a boatload of money to not be a true #1. There’s also the reality that he’s done a lot to prevent a terrible Preds season from being even worse. No goalie in the NHL has faced more shots from 1-15 feet, and, not entirely surprisingly, no goalie who’s played over 36 games has faced a higher percentage of high danger shots. He’s also sixth best among goalies with 20+ starts in SV% while shorthanded, which is key since the Preds are in the top ten for highest shorthanded time per game. And he somehow is barely in the top ten in total number of really bad starts. In short, Saros has not performed poorly, despite numbers that might suggest he has.

Lankinen and Demko is a two-headed situation where who knows how it will shake out ultimately, barring a trade. Vancouver either thought enough of Lankinen, or was worried enough about Demko, or both, to ink Lankinen to a five year contract with a cap hit just under that of Demko. Still, who’s to say Lankinen’s magic will extend beyond this season? After all, many teams are seeing him for the first or only second time, and perhaps “the book” on Lankinen will cause him to fare worse next season. Plus, of course, Demko looms. I think that barring a trade you can’t hitch your wagon to either of them given the cloudy picture that is the Canucks' goaltending situation.

Gus has done well, which was key since not only did he have Marc-Andre Fleury lurking, but also since after 2023-24 many felt his 2022-23 was beginner’s luck. The issue though is Gus is signed only through next season, with Jesper Wallstedt looming. And the Wild clearly have plans for Wallstedt, having locked him up through 2026-27, which, curiously, is the season after Gus’ deal ends. Thus, there is a universe where Gus plays next season with Wallstedt as back-up and then the Wild turn to Wallstedt in 2026-27. If they did so though, presumably Gus’ services would be in demand to other teams. Still, he has too has question marks.

I think you have to go with Saros given the other choices. I understand the lure of Gus; however, things are unclear for him, plus his GAA and SV% have been no better than Saros’ since the first quarter. Or to put it another way, Gus’ numbers might look better, and certainly he has an edge in wins; but even in as bad a season as likely can be imagined for Saros, he’s held his own. To me, it’s Saros as the keep. Given your other options, his “sure thing” factor makes him the choice. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Robert)

What’s your view on Jake Sanderson? Everything seems to be going well. How do you think he’ll produce at his peak, and how soon will he get there?

When looking at Sanderson’s top line numbers, things do indeed look quite good, as he is on track to yet again see gains in scoring rate at ES and on the PP, SOG, and both overall and PP TOI. Yes, he’s quite minus; however, I attribute that to his team as well as him focusing more on offense, which is where he’s most needed. But the team is entrusting him with a lot of ice time, such that I do see his trajectory as him becoming a true #1 defensemen.

At first I was concerned not only about his minus, but also him having several fewer points at even strength than on the PP. But then I saw that he’s only starting 43.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone, down from 50% last season. If 43.3% sounds low, it’s because it is, as fewer than 50 defensemen who’ve played 20+ games have a lower percentage, versus over three times as many with a higher percentage. In fact, of the defensemen with a lower OZ%, only Colton Parayko has tallied more than 20 points! Beyond that, his team's shooting percentage at 5×5 while Sanderson is on the ice is 4.7%. That is not a typo – 4.7%! A grand total of one defensemen in the entire NHL has played 20+ games and sports a lower 5×5 SH%.

These factors are not doing Sanderson any favors, and in fact it’s a marvel he has as many even strength points as he does. Part of the reason he does is his IPPs are superb, at 58.9% overall and 66.7% on the PP. In short, this is a defenseman who finds a way to factor into scoring when it occurs. Who are the defensemen with more points than Sanderson, as well as higher IPPs both overall and on the PP? Just guys named Zach Werenski, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, and Lane Hutson. So yeah, pretty nice company in which to find oneself. On top of that, Sanderson’s secondary assist percentage has not risen versus last season.

I’m not sure what more needs to be said, as Sanderson is making strides despite strong headwinds. I won’t go so far as to say the sky’s the limit for Sanderson, but a 60+ point pace next season is all but assured, with a realistic chance at 70+. At his peak, he most definitely is tracking to be among the top ten fantasy defensemen in the league, if not top-five. Good question!

Question #5 (from Dobberhockey Forums)

I'm in a 10 Team Yahoo H2H Keep Any 3 + 1 Rookie (under 82GP) league. Categories are G, A, PPP, SOG, FW, HITS, BLKS, W, GAA, SV%, SAVES. I currently plan on keeping Jack Hughes and Brady Tkachuk and am struggling between David Pastrnak or Connor Hellebuyck as my third keeper. For what it’s worth, I plan to keep Dustin Wolf as my rookie. Last year only one goalie was kept (Joseph Woll as someone's rookie) so I'm unsure if I should use a slot for a goalie in a limited keeper. I drafted Helly 10th overall last year, so it's possible I could use a pick on a goalie in round 1 again, as most teams did last season. Has Helly become too great to not keep, and is the future that bleak for Pasta that I buck trends and keep Helly?

Hellebuyck is on his way to a third straight season of tons of wins, a 920+ SV% and an improving GAA, and he’ll only be 32 when next season starts. Yes, Winnipeg likely will lose Nikolaj Ehlers and Neal Pionk as UFAs; however, the rest of their core will remain intact.

Pasta is amazing, but if you read my last mailbag, you’ll see he’s doing everything he can to succeed but that only amounts to a 100 point pace on Boston, as the team is no longer an offensive powerhouse and figures to get worse from here. Still, bad teams can have great fantasy assets, so I'd not discount Pasta too much because Boston seemed poised for tough times ahead.

I do worry that Hellebuyck has logged a lot of minutes for many years. What has helped him is the Jets have never made deep playoff runs, and as a result he’s had a longer offseason to be able to recharge for the following year. But if the Jets win a few playoff rounds this season, he might suffer for it come 2025-26. He has, however, seen his workload lighten a bit after the Four Nation’s Faceoff, perhaps as the Jets realize this could be an issue. Also, although Hellebuyck is doing even better this season than last, keep in mind he wasn’t retained and wasn’t drafted until 10th despite having great stats. For sure he goes earlier if not retained this time, and well earlier than Pasta. 

One wrinkle is the now less certain status of Jack Hughes given him having yet another shoulder surgery. I know I said above he was a must keep; but that was under different circumstances; and here, where you cannot afford to miss given there are just three keepers, I could see a case being made to not keep him, out of fear he won't be the same player and his ceiling is now lower. With Pasta, there is still less of a ceiling than Hughes if Hughes is no worse for wear, and Pasta is quite older. But Pasta has a very high floor and fewer question marks. Also, while I don’t know how many start at each position, Hughes is a center, i.e., the deepest position in fantasy, while Pasta is a wing. Tkachuk is a must keep – I don't think I need to make a case for him in this format.

In the end, I think Pasta is just too special of a player with 100 point downside, while Hughes might return to form or even get better, but he also might be a shell of his former self, and that’s if he can stay healthy, which becomes a bigger if after every surgery. I think you keep Hellybuyck and Pasta, along with Tkachuk, and let Hughes go. Plus, in doing this, while everyone else is taking goalies in round one, you can take the best available skater, and I'm sure there will be plenty to grab. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Jon)

Although we'll have to see what he does in Dallas, based on results in his limited time with the Canes, it sure seems like Nathan MacKinnon made Mikko Rantanen a much better player. But what are your thoughts on the effect, if any, on Mac with Rantanen gone?

I do wonder why this issue has not been discussed. Perhaps it is assumed that Martin Necas will be as good as Rantanen, making it a moot point. But for the time being at least, Necas has nowhere near the resume as Rantanen, nor the demonstrated chemistry those two had. So far, Necas has scored at roughly a point per game rate, which is very good but a big step down from what Rantanen brought the table these past few seasons.

But here's the thing, I feel MacKinnon is so amazing that he could "do it all himself" if it came to that. What I mean is he can maintain a top-tier skill level even if Necas does not turn out to be the 100+ point guy that Rantanen was.

But won't that mean fewer points for MacKinnon? Maybe, but maybe not. We look at players like Sidney Crosby, who in his early 30s often did not have a lot of surrounding talent, and he became maxed out at 100 points. But Mac scores and shoots, which is preciously rare for a center. In fact, the last two centers who scored over 100 points while averaging 4+ SOG per game at an age at least as old as Mac were Joe Sakic and Mario Lemieux. Sakic did it when 31, and then it was downhill from there with the exception of another 100 point season. With Lemieux, he had huge seasons at age 30 and 31, but after that his health was not the same so we never got to see how well he'd have done. I feel like if Mac is to be likened to one of the two, it's Super Mario, which leads me to believe Mac could indeed stay a 120+ point player for several more seasons, whether or not he has another 100+ point player riding shotgun at ES and on the PP.

How have early results been though? Overall, just fine, as Mac's scoring rate has gone up. If we look a little deeper, we see two-thirds of the points he's had came in just four of the 14 games, and in three others he had zero points. But that rate of zero point games is comparable to his season rate. The difference is Mac has as many games with over three points in these last 13 as he did all season before the Rantanen deal. Yet that might just be what I said, namely him feeling the need to do more. Maybe he's a bit more up and down than he's been. Yes, that matters in H2H, but not in roto. In H2H he is still gold in that he rarely will cost a team their week.

Long story short, I feel like Mac will be unlikely to taste 140 points again; however, a few more seasons at a 120+ point rate is not out of the question. Good question!

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I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to sent them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to admin@dobbersports.com with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.