Analytics Advantage: Fantasy Upside for New Acquisitions in Marner, Ehlers, Zegras, Dobson, and More

Stas Pupkov

2025-09-05

This week's edition shifts focus to player movement. With several notable names landing on new teams this offseason, the question for fantasy managers is how those skill sets translate in a different environment. To dig in, I'm leaning on all-situations, per-60 rates compared against position-specific league averages. This strips out raw ice time inflation and keeps forwards measured against forwards, defensemen against defensemen.

The scatterplot above pairs fantasy points per game (FPPG) with time on ice per game (TOI/GP). The dotted lines mark positional averages, creating quick context for who operates above or below the middle in usage and efficiency. Highlighted are six players—Mitchell Marner, Mikael Granlund, Nikolaj Ehlers, Noah Dobson, Trevor Zegras, and K'Andre Miller—each in a new sweater this year. Their profiles below combine rate production, deployment, and percentile ranks to project fantasy impact in fresh roles. I chose the six players I thought would have the most informative graphs, and players who are genuinely impactful night in and night out.

Mitch Marner | Vegas Golden Knights (Forward)

Marner's profile hasn't changed—he's still one of the league's premier facilitators—but his environment has. After a sign-and-trade to Vegas, he slots in on the right side of a top six anchored by Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl. That immediately keeps his minutes safe and ensures top power-play exposure on a loaded unit with Mark Stone and Shea Theodore.

Marner's per-60 numbers underline why he's a high-end fantasy driver. With assists/60 and points/60 in the 97–99th percentile among forwards, Marner consistently tilts scoring toward his side of the ice. His individual points percentage (IPP) – the rate he figures in on goals scored with him on the ice – sits well above average, showing he's involved in the majority of on-ice goals. The goal-scoring clip is steady but secondary to his playmaking, and his shooting volume sits around league median.

Where he doesn't help is in multi-cat categories. Hits and blocks remain bottom-quartile, and faceoff work won't factor into any fantasy relevance. The tradeoff is a massive edge in usage—over 21 minutes per game last season—and elite takeaway numbers that drive possession, even if they don't show up in box scores.

In Vegas, Marner walks into a top line that should control possession and a power play that could be lethal if the pieces click. He's a lock in points-heavy formats, and even in banger leagues his scoring impact outweighs the lack of peripherals. The jersey is new, but the role—primary distributor with heavy minutes—remains the same, making him a dependable early-round pick.

Mikael Granlund | Anaheim Ducks (Forward)

Granlund split last season between San Jose and Dallas, carving out a steady middle-six role before landing in Anaheim. With the Ducks, he's projected for top-six minutes and a spot on the first power-play unit alongside Mason McTavish, Chris Kreider, and Cutter Gauthier. That's a meaningful bump in opportunity compared to where he finished last year.

His per-60 data shows what he brings: assists and primary points are comfortably above positional averages, and his IPP underscores that he's often involved when his line scores. Shot volume is average, and his goal production has never been his calling card, but he's efficient enough to chip in secondary scoring. Peripheral stats remain thin—low hits and blocks—and giveaways are on the high side, which can be a drawback in certain leagues.

The appeal is in deployment. Anaheim's top six is loaded with skill, and Granlund's passing game fits perfectly with younger scorers. If he holds PP1 duties, he's got a path to 20+ power-play points, something he didn't sniff in San Jose or Dallas.

For fantasy, Granlund looks like a depth forward with situational upside. In points leagues he's a safe plug-in, and in deeper formats he's worth monitoring closely—his ceiling rises if Anaheim's kids take the next step offensively.

Nikolaj Ehlers | Carolina Hurricanes (Forward)

Ehlers heads to Carolina with a chance to finally get the kind of deployment that matches his efficiency. Slotted on the wing alongside Sebastian Aho, he's projected for a top-six role and should be in the mix for top power-play time. Nothing is set in stone, but given Carolina's current lineup, it would be a surprise if he didn't see heavy offensive usage.

His per-60 numbers underline why that opportunity matters. Ehlers sits at 1.32 goals/60 (91st percentile among forwards) and 3.47 points/60 (97th percentile), while generating shots at a 9.58/60 clip (94th percentile). He consistently drives offense when on the ice, with an IPP well above average, though he brings little to multi-cat formats—hits, blocks, and faceoffs all grade out low.

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For fantasy managers, Carolina's high-tempo attack plays right into his strengths. If he locks down PP1 usage, a push toward point-per-game production is firmly on the table. The lack of peripherals caps his ceiling in banger leagues, but in scoring-weighted formats Ehlers shapes up as one of the most attractive "new face" bets this season.

Noah Dobson | Montreal Canadiens (Defenseman)

Dobson's sign-and-trade to Montreal instantly reshapes the Canadiens' blue line. Locked into an eight-year deal, he'll be an minute-eating anchor at even strength, regularly skating north of 22 minutes a night overall. His fantasy track record backs the role: last season he landed above the 95th percentile in FPPG among defensemen, paired with elite shot volume and strong involvement in on-ice scoring plays.

The appeal extends beyond offense. Dobson racks up blocks in heavy usage, giving him multi-category value, though the turnover rate is a known tradeoff when he's driving play as much as he does. Hits are less of a factor, so he leans more valuable in points-based leagues than full banger formats.

On the power play, Dobson starts out most likely on PP2, with Lane Hutson holding down the top unit. That caps his immediate ceiling but doesn't erase upside—if Hutson struggles or if the team wants to split looks, Dobson's quarterback skill set could push him higher. Even from PP2, there's enough firepower on Montreal's roster (Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Patrik Laine, Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov) to keep him productive.

For fantasy managers, Dobson is a safe bet to return top-pair value with potential for more if deployment shifts. He's not quite a guaranteed PP1 hammer, but his floor is high enough to make him a steady, every-night play across formats.

K'Andre Miller | Carolina Hurricanes (Defenseman)

Miller arrives in Carolina via a sign-and-trade and immediately steps into a top-four role next to Jaccob Slavin. He's locked in for heavy even-strength usage and is projected to be a staple on the first penalty-kill unit. That deployment ensures steady minutes in all situations, even if his offensive ceiling remains tied to secondary opportunities.

Per-60 rates show a balanced profile: 0.26 goals/60 (73rd percentile among defensemen) and 1.00 points/60 (66th percentile) paired with solid shot generation (4.06/60). His value comes from consistency—he skates nearly 22 minutes a night and adds fantasy depth with hits and rush involvement. While blocks are slightly below positional averages, Miller more than makes up for it with elite takeaway numbers that regularly flip possession.

Carolina isn't likely to give him PP1 work, but PP2 usage remains possible. Even without big power-play volume, his all-around minutes and defensive reliability create a steady floor. For fantasy managers, Miller is best viewed as a multi-category contributor: useful for TOI, takeaways, and complementary scoring, with more upside if he can carve out even a modest power-play role.

Trevor Zegras | Philadelphia Flyers (Forward)

Zegras lands in Philadelphia after a summer trade with Anaheim, and he immediately steps into a top-six role with power-play upside. The Flyers' depth chart has him centering behind Sean Couturier, but his skill set ensures he'll see steady offensive deployment and a look on PP1 alongside Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov. Even if he starts on PP2, his usage is safe, and the opportunity to play with high-skill wingers boosts his fantasy appeal.

The per-60 profile tells the story of a balanced forward: 0.74 goals/60 and 1.98 points/60 (both above positional averages) paired with strong IPP numbers that confirm his involvement when on the ice. His shot generation sits near league median, and while he's not a heavy shooter, he complements line mates well as both a distributor and finisher. Like many young skill players, the peripherals lag—hits, blocks, and takeaways all grade below average—but his offensive tilt offsets those gaps.

For fantasy managers, the change of scenery matters. Philadelphia is giving him runway to be a play-driver, and his chemistry with Jamie Drysdale (acquired from the Ducks in January of 2024) could carry over from Anaheim. If he earns PP1 time, a 60-point pace is back in play, with even more upside if he locks down consistent minutes with Konecny or Michkov. The floor is that of a scoring middle-six forward; the ceiling is a return to his early-career breakout levels.

Player movement always brings uncertainty, but it also creates opportunity. Marner's transition to Vegas keeps him locked in as an elite facilitator, while Granlund and Zegras are banking on deployment to lift their ceilings. Ehlers finally has the chance for top-line and top PP minutes in Carolina, Dobson shores up Montreal's blue line as a steady anchor, and Miller gives the Hurricanes another defensive workhorse with sneaky multi-cat appeal.

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For fantasy managers, the key is less about the logo change and more about role. Ice time, power-play deployment, and line mates drive outcomes just as much as raw talent. Each of these six players carries a proven skill set, the question is how their new situations amplify or suppress it. That's the edge worth chasing as draft season gets underway.

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