Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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1. In the Tuesday battle between the top-two picks from this past summer’s draft, it was Matthew Schaefer who continued to look like he’s head-and-shoulders above the rest of the class. I’ll admit that I was skeptical of him and his ranking, as it seemed that he was injured while he was in the discussion for a top-five slot, and then suddenly he was being billed as the can’t miss prospect. Well, it turns out that the general consensus of the public scouting community does seem to be onto something.

Schaefer is now up to seven points in eight games. He’s adding three shots a game as well, though his contribution in the other peripheral categories leave a little to be desired. If early indications are anything to go on, then Schaefer should be in the conversation with Roman Josi (or at least Josi from a few years ago), Zach Werenski, and Cale Makar very soon, in terms of the upside and statistical profile that he brings.

The number two pick Michael Misa did also notch his first career point. He has been in and out of the lineup so far, and while the fantasy upside is tantalizing, it won’t be realized for a while yet. (oct22)

2. The most notable fantasy takeaway from the Flames' last game (Friday against Winnipeg) was Zayne Parekh being moved to Calgary’s top power play. Parekh, who racked up 107 points last season in the OHL, finished with a power-play assist in 17 minutes of icetime in the Flames’ 5-3 loss to Winnipeg. The 19-year-old Parekh is available in about two-thirds of Yahoo leagues, so he’s officially worth adding where available.

I’ve watched the Flames more than I’ve watched most teams this season, and I’d have to say that their power play looked underwhelming with Mackenzie Weegar on the point. The numbers back this up, as the Flames currently have a bottom-5 power play (13.2% PP%). That’s not to say Weegar isn’t a fine player, especially in multicategory leagues. But with the Flames officially dead last in the NHL standings with a 1-7-1 record, why not hand the keys to the young offensive dynamo?

Weegar will be fine based on his ability to accrue hits, blocked shots, and even-strength offense from heavy minutes, but his power-play total will fall. Besides, Weegar has only one power-play point and two points overall in nine games this season. (oct25)

3. Another expectation this year that I had that has so far been proven wrong, is the step back that Washington was going to have after running on adrenaline all year last season riding the wave from Alex Ovechkin‘s goal scoring record chase. Ovechkin himself has started very slowly, but the team overall is chugging along with both the offence and the defence rolling. Some of the underlying numbers for Aliaksei Protas, Tom Wilson, and others are still screaming regression, but overall the team looks like it will continue to roll as a playoff-level team. (oct22)

In the Capitals’ 5-1 win over Columbus on Friday, Ovechkin scored his 899^th career goal while adding an assist. That means he has a chance to score his 900^th career goal very soon – he has played 1500 career NHL games. Not bad. The Great 8 has has two goals in nine games this season. (oct25)

4. On Friday, the Canucks acquired forward Lukas Reichel from the Blackhawks for a 2027 fourth-round pick. The 23-year-old Reichel’s career has stalled at the NHL level since being selected as a first-round pick in 2020, with his career high being 22 points in 70 games last season.

Expect Reichel to receive some reps at center, since the Canucks are exceptionally lacking proven options at that position beyond Elias Pettersson – even more so with Filip Chytil probably dealing with another concussion. Despite registering four points in five games, Reichel has averaged just under 10 minutes per game this season with the Hawks. That icetime number should increase with the Canucks at least initially, especially if they use him at center. Seems like a worthwhile gamble for the Canucks, with the fourth-round pick a small price to pay. (oct25)

5. We got a bit of an update on Edmonton Oilers winger Zach Hyman before their game on Thursday night against Montreal, as he could be back on November 1. That game is the final one of a three-game homestand for the Oilers, and against the Chicago Blackhawks, so not a bad game for Hyman to get his legs under him as he returns from his wrist surgery. (oct24)

6. Pierre Engvall looks to be done for the season with an ankle surgery, per Stefen Rosner. He had a hip surgery and then has recently had his ankle done as well, so it seems as if the idea is to have him back healthy for 2026-27. This is kind of important for Max Shabanov because that keeps another regular winger out of the lineup for the Islanders, and helps secures Shabanov’s position on the team. He has played well so far this season, but it should keep him in the lineup for the entire campaign. (oct23)

7. Brad Marchand was back in Boston for the first time since being traded to the Panthers in the Spring. He had an amazing run with the Bruins, and it would be special to see him play there again, but his six-year contract that takes him to being 43 likely spells the end of those chances. Still, the Bruins put together a tear-jerker of a montage.

Marchand recorded two assists in the Panthers’ win, giving him eight points in eight games on the season, and he’s over three shots per game as well, which is a pace he hasn’t hit in a few years. The time on the first power play unit is helping his production as well, though that may not continue when the whole team is healthy. (oct22)

8. As the owner of Mackenzie Blackwood and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in one league, and Alex Lyon in another, I have been trying to sort out how best to approach those two goalie situations (ed. note: now that UPL is back in action and Blackwood is getting close). The good thing for both Buffalo and Colorado has been that the backups have played very well thus far, meaning there was no rush to bring the injured starter back before he’s ready.

Scott Wedgewood has been fantastic. Lyon has been similarly excellent, and Buffalo isn’t exactly the same defensively adept team as Colorado is, and they've had some injuries to contend with early in the season, especially on the blue line.

Both teams will have to determine how to share the crease between the capable backups that are on a roll and the higher-paid starters with the more proven track records. I do wonder whether there will be more of an even split to start, as the Avalanche can afford to ease Blackwood in while their team sits so high in the standings. They will want Blackwood to be their main starter in the playoffs without being overworked in the regular season. Him getting 40-45 of the remaining 70 games would be very realistic, and would also mean that there would be lots of value to be milked from Wedgewood the rest of the way. (oct22)

9. In Buffalo, things are a little more complicated. They are really under pressure to move back up the standings, they added Colton Ellis off waivers, who they would likely lose back to St. Louis if they waived him, and they are likely hoping Devon Levi takes over the starter’s job in the next year or two anyways. An initial loss or two from Luukkonen could mean that Lyon is given more leash, and ends up controlling the net until his play slips. Once his grip on the role loosens though, I wouldn’t expect him to gain it back later in the year, which makes him riskier to hold on to.

Working in Lyon’s favour as well is Luukkonen’s injury history, and the fact he has had two lower body injuries in the last few weeks, which might indicate a bit of a pattern that Luukkonen could have a tough time shaking off and recovering from this season. Again, the added risk factor with Lyon, making it more palatable to sell high if you can. (oct22)

10. Mark Stone is going to be out week to week with a wrist injury. The good news is that with the NHL’s new playoff salary cap rules, the Vegas Method of stashing players on LTIR until the postseason so they can have a cap hit like 10-15% over the actual salary cap is no longer a thing, so however long Stone is or isn’t out is irrelevant in that respect. The bad news is that it's an in-season wrist injury and it will keep a player out for weeks – not a great sign, regardless of when they return. Hopefully he can come back and be at full strength but there’s no guarantee that will be the case. (oct21)

11. Although early, Thatcher Demko is showing the kind of high-floor, high-ceiling performance fantasy managers have been waiting for. We know Demko has the potential to be an elite goaltender, but injuries have always been a lingering concern. So far, though, everything looks on track, and he is starting to look like that reliable backbone Vancouver needs in net. (oct20)

12. Emmitt Finnie continues to be a potential waiver wire add in deep leagues, and Detroit as a whole is trending toward being one of the more stackable offenses early in the season. Naturally, Finnie’s production long-term value hinges on whether Detroit gives him consistent top-six and power-play deployment. As it currently stands, Finnie has seen the majority of his TOI next to Dylan Larkin, not too bad of a gig. (oct20)

13. Spencer Knight is putting together one of the more impressive starts early this season. In his first six starts, Knight is sitting on a .937 SV% and 1.97 GAA. The win column does pop out, but Knight is the clear 1A on a Blackhawks team that will give up shot volume, which is fantasy gold for managers who value saves and steady deployment. Early in the week, he was still available in nearly half of Yahoo! Leagues. (oct20)

14. Because the season is young, we’re going to see all kinds of unexpected results. Case in point is Shane Pinto with eight goals in nine games already. Remaining on PP2 would be a clear sign that his current pace is unsustainable. Pinto is most likely a sell-high, but his first 40-point season seems like a strong possibility at this point. He may even get to 30 goals with what he has banked so far. (oct19)

15. Dawson Mercer (7% Yahoo/39% Fantrax early in the week) seems to have less appeal this season than he has in past seasons, so it’s easy to forget that he is only about to turn 24 years of age. That might have something to do with a 56-point season as a sophomore followed by two sub-40-point seasons. Mercer is also reliable in terms of games played, as he has not missed a game in his 4+ NHL seasons. (oct19)

16. Kaiden Guhle is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks with a lower-body injury. Guhle is an important defender for the Habs, as he has primarily been partnered with Lane Hutson this season at even strength. (oct19)

17. A Tristan Jarry shutout, in this economy? Jarry turned aside 30 San Jose shots early in the week to earn his first shutout of the season. I have Jarry as a “if goaltending emergency, break glass” option in one of my leagues. (oct19)

18. (At time of writing) We are two weeks into the 2025-26 regular season and while we need some more games before we start panicking (or celebrating, depending on how things are going), it is worth looking at how those first two weeks compare to the start of last season. Let’s look at the individual team games that have taken place so far compared to the same point from the 2024-25 season, and how they are similar (or different).

Data is current as of the morning of Wednesday, October 22^nd and is from Natural Stat Trick.

Goal Scoring Is Down (Again)

The 2024-25 season saw teams score 2.98 goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) over the whole campaign, the lowest mark since the COVID bubble season. Looking at just the first couple of weeks, here is where things stand this season compared to last year:

To date, that is a decline of about 4.5% in goals per 60 minutes compared to last year. If that percentage holds, we are looking at over 350 fewer goals this season compared to the 2024-25 campaign. If you’re thinking to yourself that we haven’t been seeing as many high-scoring games as October 2024, then you’re on the right track.

The curious part about that is that penalties are up slightly compared to this time last year. Using data from NHL.com, the first 214 individual team games of 2024-25 saw teams average 3.23 power-play opportunities per game. To this point in 2025-26, that number is about 3.27. It isn’t a huge difference, but the scoring decline is not because of fewer power plays, as was the case last year. (oct23)

19. Non-Power Play Scoring is a Problem

When looking at all the game states other than the power play (5v5, 4v4, 3v3, PK), we see why goal scoring has declined. Comparing again to this point last year, here are the rates of shots and goals at any strength other than the power play, as well as the accompanying shooting percentages:

That table shows that non-power play goal rates are down about 0.16 per 60 minutes compared to the early portion of 2024-25, which is the entire drop in goal scoring overall from last year (and then some). A huge part of that is that shots on goal are down 1.5 per 60 minutes outside of the power play.

After a 2024-25 season that saw the lowest rate of power-play opportunities per game since they started recording them in 1963-64, they have increased slightly compared to a year ago (about 0.05 per team per game). It is a good thing, too, because with the non-power play goal-scoring decline, we don’t need fewer power plays. (oct23)

20. Shots Are Down Again

Back in May, I wrote about how shots on goal per shot attempt have been declining in recent seasons and were considerably lower in 2024-25 than just 3-4 years ago. Whatever the reason – changes in how the NHL counts a shot, increases in shot blocking, better defensive positioning, or some combination of those things – the league saw its lowest shot-per-game total in over 20 years.

Shots on goal are down once again, and it’s worth looking at why. Once again comparing the early portions of the last two seasons, here are the rates of non-power play shots on goal per shot attempt (CF):

That is 0.015 fewer shots on goal per shot attempt outside of the power play, which is 166 fewer shots on goal than if they had the same shot-per-attempt rate as last year, or over fewer 2000 shots over the course of a full season. The table in the previous section shows us a decline in shots on goal per 60 minutes, and part of that is teams are attempting fewer shots outside of the power play in general, but they are also converting fewer of the attempts into shots on goal. (oct23)

21. What Does This Tell Us?

The thing to watch is the power play opportunities. Again, back in May I wrote about how declining power-play opportunities affected both forwards and defencemen because goal distribution at even strength was shifting more towards depth players. If the power play opportunities start drying up to the level they were last year, it would be very bad news for the top producers in the league, and thus the top fantasy hockey options. This is something to check back on a month from now. (oct23)

Have a good week, folks!

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