Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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1. An update for the Top 100 Roto Rankings was provided on Saturday (here). Feel free to view our preseason rankings, as well. It’s definitely time for some changes, as we now have over a month of data to analyze.

As a sneak peek, here is a list of players that were added or removed from the Top 100. Keep in mind that this is not a full list. I don’t want to leave comments of more than a few words in the rankings table, so I’ll do it here instead.

Added

Seth Jones: On a 90-point pace after failing to crack 40 points in his previous four seasons. Maybe a sell high because of regression or the potential for injury, but Jones is definitely top-100 worthy right now.

Beckett Sennecke: The Anaheim power play is firing on all cylinders, with 11 of Sennecke’s 23 points on the power play. Only 20, he is justifying the Ducks reaching for him at third overall in 2024.  

Logan Stankoven: He has posted big numbers at every level. Dallas and Carolina both had the depth to bring him along slowly. He has taken his game to the next level while reaching the 200-game mark of his NHL career.

Vasily Podkolzin: He has cooled off after a dynamite start with just one point in his last six games. However, Podkolzin offers enough in hits and shots to be a roto category killer. Although he is off the top power play with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins back from injury, Podkolzin remains on a powerful top line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Artturi Lehkonen: Speaking of linemates, Lehkonen has them too with Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas. His 14 goals is currently in the top 5 in the league, but a 32.6 SH% and 17.6 5-on-5 SH% means a downturn is likely. Injury history is also concerning. (nov14)

2. Removed

Dylan Larkin: Not earning points for your fantasy team while he sits at home awaiting a trade.

Alex Ovechkin: Father Time catches up to everyone, but I’m sure no one thought he’d crash like this. Just one goal in 17 games, just one point in his last nine games, averaging under 14 minutes per game. The only thing Ovechkin still has going is that he’s still on the top power play. Maybe some positive regression is coming?  

Matthew Knies: The Blue Jackets’ slump has affected the recently acquired Knies, although he has three points in his last four games.

Porter Martone: A team with as bad of energy as the Flyers have right now won’t be kind to rookies. It’s difficult to think that Martone will receive any Calder Trophy consideration at the one-quarter point of the season.

Got any other suggestions? (nov14)

3. It was good news all around for the Ottawa Senators on Thursday as not only did goaltender Linus Ullmark return from injury to start a game for the first time in over three weeks, but the Sens took a 4-3 overtime win at home to the Colorado Avalanche. Ullmark was solid in net, stopping 26 of 29 shots faced for the win. (nov13)

Ed. note: It was the opposite of a positive news night for the Avs as not only did they lose, but both Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar suffered lower-body injuries during that game against the Sens. It was reported on Saturday that MacKinnon will miss one month of action, while Makar is expected to be sidelined for about two weeks.

4. Both Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello returned to the Los Angeles Kings lineup on Thursday night, both on the second line with Quinton Byfield, and Fiala jumped onto the top PP unit in their 5-forward setup. It didn’t really change much as the Kings fell to the New York Islanders by a 5-2 margin. 

For the Isles, Matthew Schaefer finished with a power-play goal, three shots, three blocks, and a hit. At time of writing, he was 1 of 10 defencemen to be at least a point-per-game player thus far, and the only one to be over 3.0 shots per game. (nov13)

5. One of my big offseason concerns was that Brandt Clarke would not be a full-time member of Los Angeles’ top PP unit as the team turns to a 5-forward setup. With Kevin Fiala back in action, that was the case earlier in the week.

@LeggetNHL: Kings working with a 5-forward power play on the top unit.

Panarin – Byfield – Laferriere
Kempe – Fiala 

Of course, there is no guarantee that the Kings stick with this setup for any longer than a single game (as was the case on Thursday), and we’ll see what things look like when Erik Gustafsson is healthy, but this is all bad news for Clarke’s fantasy value. The Kings hosted Calgary yesterday and with Artemi Panarin not in uniform for personal reasons, Clarke received 4:31 of PP ice time. (nov12)

6. There was hope that Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen (upper body) would return on Thursday but he didn't. There was hope that he would return yesterday (Saturday) but he didn't. And at time of writing, he was listed as doubtful for Sunday’s matchup against Florida. Heiskanen hasn’t played since November 3. Hopefully this isn’t more serious than the team is letting on. (nov12)

7. Sam O’Reilly, the 32^nd overall pick in 2024 who was sent to the Lightning for Isaac Howard, made his NHL debut on Wednesday. He picked up an assist, had a block and a pair of hits, and skated 12:56 on a line with Yanni Gourde and Jake Guentzel. He also got a role on the top PP unit over Brandon Hagel. (nov12)

8. Shane Wright had his first big game with his new team last Wednesday, as he totaled a goal, two assists, four shots, a block, and a hit in Nashville’s 4-2 win in Anaheim. He still played just 13:01 with secondary PP time, so let’s not get too excited yet about his fantasy outlook, but he had been held pointless in his first four games with the Predators, so maybe this starts an upward trend for him. (nov12)

9. For readers who may have missed it, I had a quick 45-second video over on the Dobber Hockey YouTube channel on Tuesday discussing Calgary Flames defenceman Zayne Parekh (pardon my pronunciation of Parekh’s last name).

For anyone who doesn’t want to watch it, here are the highlights:

• In the first two games after Kevin Bahl‘s injury, Parekh skated 22:20 and 21:38, his two highest TOI games of the season (Editor's Note: he skated 22:43 in the loss to the Rangers on Wednesday night, leading all Flames blue liners).
• Starting Wednesday, November 11^th and going through Sunday, November 29^th, the Flames have 10 games, tied for most in the league (per Frozen Tools). Those games include San Jose, Chicago, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles. There are even a couple of games against the New York Rangers, which isn’t a terrible matchup.
• Parekh runs the top power play, which has been very good through the first six weeks of the season.
• His ownership rates are 22% on Yahoo and 10% on ESPN.

Over his last 12 games (excluding Wednesday night’s matchup against the Rangers and Saturday against the Kings), Parekh has averaged 13.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes. That is roughly an 88^th percentile rate among defencemen. He has 7 points and 16 blocks in those 12 games, too. He rarely hits – just six in 18 games – so there is a bit of a ding to his value in banger formats, but there is production, shot volume, and a decent block total here.

There is also good work under the hood that is pointing to Parekh taking a leap in his offensive profile. Using 5-on-5 tracking data from All Three Zones, I want to focus on six key areas, and they are all relative to the league average for defencemen:

• Shots/assists off the rush
• Shots/assists off the cycle or forecheck
• Rate of zone entries
• Percentage of zone entries carried in
• Rate of one exits with possession
• Assists on teammate scoring chances + individual scoring chances

Last year was a small sample (just seven tracked games) and it’s the same this year (just three tracked games), but that small sample does show improvement in five of those six key offensive measures:

He still isn’t heavily involved in the transition play with his zone exits and entries being below average this year (and entries were below average last year, too), but once the puck is in the offensive zone, he’s getting heavily involved in the offence. He is still just 20 years old (turning 21 in February) with about two-thirds of a full season’s worth of games played. He is still learning, and the team around him isn’t potent offensively, but these are all good signs.

This is all to say that if Parekh is on your waiver wire, and you need help on the blue line, he is worth the short-term add. For at least the next 2.5 weeks, the Flames have a good schedule, and it seems his role will be a lot bigger with Bahl injured. If it doesn’t work out in the short term, Parekh probably won’t be much worse than the other waiver options available. If it does work out in the short term, then fantasy managers may have a reliable 4^th/5^th defenceman they can use for the rest of the season. Any defenceman skating 22 minutes a game with top PP time is worth a look on the waiver wire, and keeper/dynasty owners might want to check on his price in a trade. (nov12)

10. Dawson Mercer was fittingly the one to open the scoring against his former team earlier in the week, after they dumped him in the Connor Hellebuyck trade. He added the game winner in the third period for good measure, as fellow tradee Nico Daws stopped 20 of the Devils’ 22 shots to earn the win against his former team. 

For reasons we may never firmly know (whether it was Hellebuyck or someone else’s call), it was actually Jake Allen starting for the Devils. We now wait to see if Hellebuyck plays in the next WPG/NJD game, which takes place in just over two weeks on Nov 28. This one will be in New Jersey though. (nov11)

Entering Saturday, Hellebuyck had won six straight games to start his Devils tenure. He had a .916 save percentage with a GAA under 2.0. (nov13)

11. Logan Thompson hasn’t been great this season, but the team in front of him has still been reasonably solid, and when the full D-core is finally at full health in the next few months (fingers crossed), then that should help his numbers too. He didn’t have a single quarter last season with a save percentage under .900, but he was at .889 entering Saturday.

The Quality Start percentage is still hovering around 65%, but the Really Bad Start percentage is much higher this season, nearly double what it has been the last couple of years. That speaks to his lack of consistency this season, which makes him much tougher to play on the whole. Still, goalies don’t get much better or more consistent than Thompson, so this is a wave that owners just have to ride for the time being. (nov11)

12. Victor Eklund has been added in a few of my leagues and I’m annoyed with myself that I missed the boat on him after highlighting him earlier in the season. He was on quite the streak entering Saturday with three goals and four points in his last four games, but not only that, he was also bringing some fantastic peripherals. Eklund’s first two weeks of the season saw him put up 1.0 SOG per game and 2.1 Hits per game, but that has jumped to 2.0 SOG and 3.9 Hits per game over the last three weeks, coinciding with a jump in ice time.  

Eklund is also seeing some power play time now, and while his most recent goal was with the man advantage, we can’t expect him to make a habit of that. With Mat Barzal making his season debut anytime now, that could push Eklund down the lineup, and definitely off the power play. Make the add, but keep an eye on his ice time as the lineup changes over time. (nov11)

13. One other player that caught me completely off-guard when I looked into him in my dynasty league was Judd Caulfield. I had barely even heard of him before, and here he was with nine points and 56 Hits in 16 games at time of writing last Wednesday. The scoring will likely regress, but the Hits are trending up with his ice time, which should minimize the drop in scoring as well. Worth a look in deeper leagues. (nov11)

14. As the Nikita Kucherov owner in two leagues, it has been notable to me that he has been good but not great thus far. The trade request has been a bit of a distraction, but I don’t think that has really had an impact on his play. He is still putting up over a 100-point pace, but it’s a far cry from his usual 130+ pace. 

The good news for Kucherov owners is that some of the underlying numbers do point to there being some positive regression coming. The good news for non-Kucherov owners, is that being 34, there’s the worm of doubt in his owners that this drop off may be constant and permanent, so you may be able to buy him as a 100-point player as opposed to a 125-point player that he still should be for at least this season and next. (nov11)

15. Waiver Wire Targets entering last week

Jamie Drysdale (D) – 14% owned

Jamie Drysdale is worth a look as a waiver-wire option, particularly with his increased ice time and offensive involvement this season. The 24-year-old defenceman has eight points (1G, 7A) through 18 games while averaging 23:10 of ice time. He's also receiving top powerplay duties. For context, Drysdale recorded 32 points in 78 games last season while averaging 21:33 per game. He's currently on pace for a 40-point campaign, and the increased workload and power-play usage could provide some upside. His shot volume remains modest, with just 22 shots this season, but should be an interesting option in deeper leagues.

16. Joonas Korpisalo (G) – 10% owned

Joonas Korpisalo may be worth a look as a waiver-wire option, particularly with the Rangers playing three games on lighter nights this week. Korpisalo made his NYR debut Saturday in Seattle after posting a 14-9-6 record with a 3.15 GAA and .894 SV% as Boston's backup last season. I expect Korpisalo and Garand to share the workload, but the Rangers' goaltending situation is worth monitoring, with the two currently serving as the only options in the crease. Given that, Korpisalo could be a decent speculative add if you're looking for help in goal, especially with Monday, Wednesday and Friday schedule for the Rangers.

17. Adam Edstrom (C,LW) – 30% owned

If you're looking for some solid category coverage, Adam Edstrom is worth a look this week. Despite playing on the third line, he continues to find the scoresheet while delivering plenty of hits. Through 15 games, Edstrom has seven points (6G, 1A), 26 shots on goal and 78 hits. His point production isn't particularly impressive, but his hit totals are approaching a 385-hit pace over 84 games. The physical production provides a nice fantasy floor, especially in leagues that reward peripheral stats.

18. Kent Johnson (LW/RW) – 25% owned

Kent Johnson is finally showing signs of reaching his breakout potential. Through 15 games, he has 16 points (8G, 8A), including four power-play points, and is riding a seven-game point streak (4G, 7A). The biggest development is his move into a top-line role and onto Columbus' first power-play unit, where he's receiving nearly 70% of the team's power-play share. After managing just 18 points in 67 games last season, Johnson is showing plenty of bounce-back potential. His shooting percentage suggests some regression is possible, but the increased deployment and power-play usage make him a worthwhile waiver-wire add. (nov9)

19. A couple of weeks ago, I had a buy-low write-up on Sidney Crosby, Adam Fantilli, and Tyson Foerster. Since then, Crosby has six points in six games, Foerster has three points and 14 hits in six games, but Fantilli has been a dud. I still think Fantilli makes a good buy-low, and the price has only gotten cheaper since.

Today, let’s run that same exercise again, looking at changes among forward stats to start this season compared to the forward’s 2-year average. We are looking at two stats in particular:

• Individual Points Percentage (IPP) – How often a player registers a point when their team scores a goal with them on the ice. So, if Tage Thompson is on the ice for 20 goals, and has a point on 10 of those goals, his IPP is 50%.
  
• Unblocked Shots Per Shot on Goal (iFF Per Shot) – How many unblocked shot attempts it takes for a player to register a shot on goal.

If we can find players who are getting fewer points than they should, and players whose shot volume should increase, we can find our buy-low options.

The following graphs are my own using data from Natural Stat Trick and Frozen Tools. The red and blue dotted lines are the average change in each stat for the forwards in our sample. The size of the team logo refers to the difference in their secondary assist rate compared to the last two years, so the smaller the logo, the lower their secondary assist rate this season.

Travis Konecny (Philadelphia Flyers)

Konecny has played just nine games, and the Flyers have struggled to create offence all season. While his point production isn’t very far off what we may expect, the key here is his unblocked shot attempt rate this season compared to the last two years:

Through his nine games, Konecny has just 14 shots on goal. He has required 2.14 unblocked shot attempts for every shot on goal, but his two-year average is 1.55. In other words, Konecny’s 30 unblocked shot attempts should have led to 19-20 shots on goal by now, rather than 14. His rest-of-season shot pace right now is around 100 shots on goal, but once he starts landing more shots on target, the realistic outcome is around 140 shots on goal. That is a massive difference, speaks to his goal-scoring upside, and makes him someone to target as a buy-low option. (nov10)

20. Dylan Guenther (Utah Mammoth)

After starting the season with three goals and five points in two games, Guenther has just three goals and seven points in his last 16 games. He has hit a very cold streak lately, but that is where the buy opportunity comes into play. Guenther has managed a point on just 41.4% of goals scored with him on the ice compared to a two-year average of 68.9%:

There are also some shots on goal missing as he has 46 shots in 18 games and that number should be closer to 50. With rates closer to his recent career norms, Guenther has 19-20 points in 18 games with 50 shots on target. If he was pacing for a 90-point, 230-shot season as he very well could be, then Guenther’s fantasy managers are laughing at trade offers.

The bonus here is that starting today, Utah’s remaining opponents have combined for a .544 points percentage, which gives the Mammoth the 7^th easiest schedule based on results so far. If Guenther can be acquired with a price of a top-100 player rather than a top-50 player, now is the time to make that deal. (nov10)

21. Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)

As with Sidney Crosby, it seems as if we’re all waiting for the bottom to fall out of the 41-year-old Ovechkin’s production. He may not be the player he was even just two years ago, but there are clear indicators of improvement here:

Ovechkin has a point on just 26.7% of goals scored with him on the ice against a two-year average of 66.5%. He has also required 1.89 unblocked shot attempts for every shot on goal compared to a two-year average of 1.55. Rather than four points and 26 shots, he should be closer to 10 points and 32 shots. With 15 games played, that is still a far cry from even late-career Ovechkin, let alone his prime, but it shows how much production has been left on the table.

The big issue is ice time. He is under 14 minutes a game as the Caps have a deep forward group and, again, he’s not the player he was. However, from here on out, even with his reduced ice time, Ovechkin can still post 20 goals, 20 assists, and 150 shots. And if he does see a drastic production uptick, my guess is the ice time improves, too. People who drafted Ovechkin are probably ready to recoup whatever value they can, so a fantasy manager needing a home-run swing in a multi-cat format will want to check to see what the trade cost is. (nov10)

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Have a good week, folks!

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