Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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1. The Anaheim Ducks can almost score at will, emerging as a top-5 offense with 3.76 GF/GP. Much of that has to do with a potent power play (36.1%, 2^nd in NHL entering Saturday action). Leo Carlsson was second in the league with 17 power-play points, only one behind Connor McDavid. With 26 points in just 17 games, could Carlsson actually earn his $18 million per season? 

After a slow start, Cutter Gauthier is scoring goals like no one else. Gauthier’s two goals over his first 11 games raised cause for concern, especially since he scored 41 goals last season. Since then, Gauthier has fired 10 goals over his last five games. Gauthier recorded back-to-back hat tricks earlier this week. That’s why you need to stay patient with these guys.

The flipside to all the offense is that the Ducks are a mess defensively, allowing an equivalent 3.76 GA/GP. (If you want a laugh, look up Vancouver’s number.) All three Ducks goalies (Lukas Dostal, Ville Husso, Laurent Brossoit) have poor numbers this season. 

Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks were supposed to be right there with the Ducks in terms of up-and-coming offenses. Yet, entering Saturday, the Sharks sat in the bottom-5 of the league’s total offenses with just 2.5 GF/GP. That wasn’t supposed to be the plan! Macklin Celebrini is doing his thing with 18 points in 16 games, so he’s the one Shark that you don’t have to worry about. The Sharks could still be another year or two from being dominant offensively, with its core players (Celebrini, Will Smith, Ivar Stenberg, Michael Misa, am I missing anyone?) ranging between 19 to 21 years of age. (nov7)

2. The Montreal Canadiens got some positive injury news as captain Nick Suzuki was back in the lineup on Thursday night. He had missed six games with a hand injury after blocking a shot a little over two weeks ago, which was his first stretch of games missed in seven years. He was back in his usual top line and top PP roles for the team. Suzuki made a triumphant return with a goal, two assists (one PP), four shots, and two hits in over 20 minutes of ice time. (nov6)

3. There was a positive update on Minnesota defenceman Brock Faber:

@JoeSmithNHL: Brock Faber out here in first practice with teammates since skull fracture late in preseason. He'd been skating on his own.

Faber has been out all season with the skull fracture suffered during the preseason. That he’s back at this point is great to see, though there’s obviously no firm timeline on when he’ll return to game action. (nov6)

4. The New York Islanders got some good injury news as all of Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, and Ryan Pulock were at practice in non-contact jerseys on Wednesday, per Andrew Gross. There is no clear timeline on any of them returning, but this is a big step towards doing so. (nov5)

5. Quinton Byfield: After posting just two points in nine games to start the season, he had four points in his last three appearances entering Saturday. He is starting to get on the right track. (nov5)

6. Colorado has had some issues with letdowns on the second half of some back-to-backs this year, in big part because Scott Wedgewood has been, in a word, bad. Compared to last year when he was splitting starts with Blackwood, Wedgewood’s numbers are much worse, and Blackwood’s are better.

With the contract and pedigree also favouring Blackwood, it’s going to be a tough spot for Wedgewood to even get his footing back to have a second half anywhere close to what his owners might be hoping for. Even a Blackwood injury would likely result in top goalie prospect Ilya Nabokov getting a share of the net in Colorado, so that is no guarantee of a boost in value either. It might just be time to cut bait on Wedgewood if you’re hoping for any kind of volume this year.  (nov4)

7. Shane Wright was traded to the Nashville Predators for Matthew Wood. For a full fantasy analysis check out Ian Goodings article here. 

8. Waiver Wire Targets

Continuing on from last week's waiver-wire notes, here are a few options worth considering, as we entered the week, along with some players to keep on your watchlist. An increase in deployment could lead to more production, so even if they aren't the best adds for this week, they could provide some value down the road.

Joel Farabee (LW/RW) – 44% owned

Farabee has been one of the hotter players in the league recently, recording 12 points over his last eight games. He's averaging 18:30 of ice time, up from 16:55 last season, while his power-play involvement has jumped to 72.1% from 23.9%. He's also averaging 2.4 shots per game, with his 7.6 shots per 60 minutes representing an improvement over last season. The increased opportunity is translating into production, as he's already picked up eight power-play points. Some regression is likely, but at 44% owned, he could still be available in a number of leagues. The combination of increased usage, recent production and dual eligibility makes him worth a look. (nov2)

9. Dimitry Orlov (D) – 19% owned

San Jose has four games on the schedule this week, including three on off nights, making Orlov an appealing streaming option. The matchup against Minnesota and Kirill Kaprizov is the toughest of the bunch, but the remaining schedule is favourable. More importantly, Orlov continues to quarterback the Sharks' top power-play unit, giving him a solid opportunity to contribute offensively. His six points through 15 games are a reasonable start, with four coming on the power play. That means 66.7% of his production has come with the man advantage. At just 19% owned in Yahoo! leagues, the four-game schedule and power-play role make him worth adding. Mason Marchment is another name to monitor after earning an opportunity on the top unit, particularly if Orlov is already taken. (nov2)

10. Zach Benson (LW) – 40% owned

Benson is another player worth keeping an eye on, particularly with the opportunity he's receiving in Buffalo. He's riding a hot streak with seven points over his last four games and has 13 points through 14 games. His ice time is up more than four minutes from last season to 19:58 per game, while his power-play involvement has also increased. Benson isn't much of a shooter, with just two goals on 33 shots, so his production is being driven more by playmaking than an unsustainable shooting percentage. His 11 assists and increased power-play usage are encouraging, and at 42.9% PIPP, there's still room for more production. At 40% owned, he's an intriguing add with upside beyond this week. (nov2)

11. Emmitt Finnie (C/LW) – 17% owned

With Dylan Larkin suspended and out of the Red Wings' lineup Emmitt Finnie been moved onto the top line alongside Alex DeBrincat and Victor Arvidsson, while also seeing an increase in power-play time. The added opportunity is worth paying attention to, especially given the production he's already put together with six goals and 10 points through 14 games. The 18.2% shot rate is high and is likely to come down, but the increased usage gives him a legitimate opportunity to maintain his production. At 17% owned, Finnie is worth adding but keep in mind their schedule is a tough one against Florda, Tampa, Vegas and Colorado this week. (nov2)

12. Last week, I had a pair of Ramblings on players to sell high or buy low on. The former included Leo Carlsson, Alexis Lafreniere, and Steven Stamkos, while the latter included Sidney Crosby, Adam Fantilli, and Tyson Foerster.

The early portion of any hockey season is not just finding which players to buy high/sell low on, it’s also figuring out which players to hang onto. They could be young players breaking out or veteran players with hot starts, but not trading away guys who have the hallmarks of a big year is crucial to fantasy success. Today, we’ll do that by looking at a variety of measures like points rate, team goal rate with the player on the ice, their expected goal rate, shooting percentages, and more.

All data comes from Natural Stat Trick and is current as of the morning of Monday, November 2^nd.

Tage Thompson (Buffalo Sabres)

With 10 goals and 17 points in 14 games, Tage is pacing for 60 goals and 102 points, both marks being career-best totals. Even if we pro-rate for 82 games rather than 84, his paces are career-high rates. For a guy with three 40-goal seasons in the last four years, that could be a worry.

There is reason for belief, though, and a big reason is that the team’s goal rate (+0.24) and expected goal rate (+0.04) per 60 minutes with Tage on the ice are not that much higher than they were last year:

The Sabres are also shooting 12.4% with Tage on the ice, a three-year low. His shot attempt rate (22.5 per 60 minutes) is also higher than last year, and he’s earning a career-best 19:25 per game in TOI. He might not get to the 60 goals he’s currently pacing for, but everything is lining up for Buffalo’s star centre to reach 50 goals for the first time in his career. (nov3)

13. Filip Forsberg (Nashville Predators)

Nashville is shooting 16.7% with Forsberg on the ice, and he’s been between 11.5-12.5% each of the last three years. That is the clear issue here, as it’s giving him an extra 4-5 points, which would drop him from well over a point per game to under a point per game.

The good news is that his goal participation is down slightly from last year (Individual Points Percentage, or IPP) and so is his individual shooting percentage:

Fantasy managers should not expect a 100-point season from Forsberg, but the fact that he’s skating a career-high 20:44 per game, about two minutes more per game than his two-year average, puts point-per-game status firmly within reach. Despite some drops in per-minute volume, the additional ice time makes up the difference, and makes him a guy to hang onto (for now). (nov3)

14. Tye Kartye (New York Rangers)

Compared to his three years in Seattle, Kartye is earning 4:46 per game in additional ice time, which is a massive leap that helps explain a big portion of his production increase. There are signs of regression we’ll touch on in a second, but he’s also added to his rates of unblocked shot attempts (iFF) and individual expected goals (ixG), while the team’s expected goals with him on the ice is also higher than last year:

The signs of regression are an 83.3% goal participation rate (67.3% across the last two years) with an individual shooting percentage of 19% (two-year average of 12.5%). However, even if we drop him to about 10% shooting, which would normalize his IPP, he’s still sitting with 8 points in 15 games, which is a points/game rate 57% higher than his prior career high. Ice time matters, and Kartye’s huge TOI increase makes him a guy to hold in banger leagues that count hits, even with the signs of regression. (nov3)

15. Brandt Clarke (Los Angeles Kings)

Throughout the offseason, I stated that I was not sold on Clarke being Los Angeles’ regular top PP defenceman, and he already lost the role. Whether he gets it back remains to be seen, but the good news is that if you drafted Clarke, it isn’t a deal-breaker for his fantasy value. Here is the push/pull of his season so far, as the team’s goal rate with him on the ice is down nearly a half-goal per 60 minutes, but his goal participation rate is far higher than in 2025-26:

If we normalize his rates, Clarke should have 6-7 points in 13 games rather than the 10 he does have. As long as fantasy managers are fine with Clarke sitting around a full-season pace of 40 points from here on out, he’s a guy to hold onto. If fantasy managers were expecting more, then it might be a good idea to ship him to another roster. (nov3)

16. Ryker Evans (Seattle Kraken)

Here we have a case of a player running hot. So far, the Kraken are generating 0.9 more goals per 60 minutes with Evans on the ice against a decline of nearly 0.3 expected goals:

That does tell us that Evans maybe has an extra point or two that he shouldn’t. But that doesn’t tell the whole story because the mitigating factor is he’s averaging 22:24 per game, an increase of 4:36 per game compared to last year. He has averaged over 22 minutes a game across his last five outings, all with Brandon Montour healthy and in the lineup. We shouldn’t buy on Evans being a 40-point defenceman, but he averaged 24 points every 82 games across the first three years of his career. He finally has the role to cross the 30-point mark, doing so with notable increases in his blocks and hits per game. That is a valuable multi-cat blue liner, and anyone that drafted him/added him this season should hang onto the found money. (nov3)

17. In today’s Ramblings, rather than an over-arching theme as is common for my write-ups, I want to just cover a couple different things, including some skating data from NHL Edge as well as two teams with favourable schedules over the next two months, but for different reasons. (At time of writing)

Elias Pettersson‘s Rebound

With 18 points in 17 games, Pettersson is having his most productive stretch in two years (he had 21 points in 15 games back in November/December of 2024). The question is how much of this is just a heater, and how much is a genuine rebound to the Pettersson of 3-4 years ago.

Anyone who has regularly read my writing over the last few years knows I wasn’t believing Pettersson’s rebound because of his skating problems. He suffered a knee injury in the middle of the 2023-24 season, and it didn’t seem to recover over the next two years. Using skating data from NHL Edge, and going over Pettersson’s prior four seasons, here is how often he had skating bursts between 20-22 MPH per game in each season: 

The 2022-23 was the last season we know Pettersson was healthy, and it was also the season he put up 102 points. Two years later, the rate of 20-22 MPH skating bursts per game had declined by a whopping 45%. It is obvious that his knee tendinitis was a big problem.

But notice that from 2024-25 to 2025-26, he improved his skating bursts by 34%. It has increased again so far this season to 1.47 skating bursts per game, an increase of 40% from two years ago. He is still not back to where he was in his career-year of 2022-23, but he’s a lot better than he was a couple of seasons ago. I don’t know if we’ll ever see the 100-point Pettersson again, but it looks like the 55-point days are behind us now, too. (nov5)

18. Auston Matthews‘ Rebound

When thinking about injured players, Matthews is a top-of-mind name. His nagging back issue was a big topic for fantasy managers in the offseason, and with 11 goals and 26 points through 17 games, the question of whether he’s regained his old form is fair. Using the same 20-22 MPH bursts per game as we just used with Pettersson, here is Matthews in each season from 2022-2026, and what he’s done so far this year:

Notice the clear downward trend over the prior three seasons, and then the huge rebound this year. The last time Matthews’ per-game skating bursts were this high, he had a 69-goal, 107-point season.

There are still 67 games left on the Leafs’ schedule, so the degree of Matthews’ bounce-back has yet to be truly written, and I do have concerns about his shot rate, but it really does look like he is not the player he was in either of the prior two seasons. Maybe he doesn’t push for 70 goals ever again, but the concerns he’s a sub-point-per-game guy now should be alleviated. (nov5)

19. Olen Zellweger‘s Breakout?

The issue for Zellweger’s fantasy value is power-play time. He won’t overtake Rasmus Dahlin for PP1 minutes anytime soon, and he may be third in line behind Owen Power. However, his 1.6 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is easily the rate of a #1 defenceman, and his 7.2 shots per 60 minutes is sixth among all blue liners.

As with Pettersson and Matthews, we may be seeing the true Zellweger breakout appear in the skating data. Using the same 20-22 MPH bursts per game we’ve used so far, here are Zellweger’s rates in each of the four seasons of his career:

Among defencemen, Matthew Schaefer is in a tier of his own at the top of the leaderboard, but Zellweger is in the next tier below with guys like Philip Broberg, Brandon Montour, Luke Hughes, and Lane Hutson.

Skating 20 minutes a game with a very low hit rate, modest block rate, and no PP time is a tough way to build fantasy value. Zellweger could very well be a 35- to 40-point defenceman, but the lack of hits/blocks and minimal PP production makes him a tough player to have in multi-cat formats. However, the improvements to his skating look legitimate, and it’s helping to unlock another level to his offensive upside. He just won’t have a commensurate rise in fantasy upside. (nov5)

20. Time to Buy on the San Jose Sharks

I get the concerns around San Jose right now. They have just nine goals in their last five games, losing four of those games. There are also some underlying play-driving issues that could make consistent offensive performance difficult, particularly for anyone not skating on a line with Macklin Celebrini

The good news is that starting this Monday, November 9^th, the Sharks have an eight-week stretch where their opponents have the second-worst points percentage in the league, per Frozen Tools. Their opponents are also giving up 3.19 goals per game, the most in the league. The Sharks play 26 games in those eight weeks, being 1 of 5 teams to play at least that many games. Finally, they are 1 of 5 teams to have at least 12 games on light days through that stretch. In other words, the Sharks have an offence-friendly eight-week stretch that includes a lot of games and a lot of light days.

In shallower fantasy formats, now is the time to check for guys like Ivar Stenberg, Mason Marchment, and Tyler Toffoli, and those in deeper formats should be checking for guys like Michael Misa, Collin Graf, and Sam Dickinson.

The same could be said for the Calgary Flames, though to a lesser degree. They have an easy schedule, but it’s more friendly for their goalies than it is their offence – Calgary’s upcoming eight-week stretch has their opponents with the lowest rate of goals per game in the league. Depending on the availability of Devin Cooley, it seems like a good time for Dustin Wolf to improve his numbers. (nov5)

21. In case you missed it, Dobber announced earlier this week on his various socials that his cancer has returned: 

As unfortunate as this news is and as much as a setback this is for Dobber, I am confident that he will take cancer down again. Let’s all send a prayer, positive vibes, or whatever preferred form of best wishes that we can. I also send my support to his wife Hemwanti, who I worked with while he was in the worst part of his second battle, as well as his two daughters. Dobber has shared details of his recent diagnosis in his personal blog Dobber’s Take. I think he has studied cancer research and analytics to the point where he could earn a medical degree! 

F*** Cancer.

""You never know how strong you are, until being strong is your only choice." — Bob Marley

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Have a good week, folks!

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