Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. As there are no games on Thursday, I'm coming to you early. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last week was great, where we went 6-3 again returning 10.78 units in profit. The Edmonton power play stack came through again, team shot props were on point, and our power play reads were great. Overall, that brings the season record to 51–39 for +16.02 units. Now let’s dive into tonight’s Puck Picks. Let’s have a night!

Montreal Canadiens Under 27.5 Team Shots (–125, 2.5u)

This is one of those plays where you don't need to overthink it. Even a quick glance at sharper books tells the story. Jeremy Swayman's save line is sitting at 21.5 on nearly every sportsbook, which implies a Montreal shot total closer to 24.5, not 27.5. That alone signals a clear mispricing.

Beyond the market discrepancy, the matchup supports it as well. Montreal ranks bottom five in the league in shots for over their last 10 games, while Boston has been top two in shots against over their last five. The Bruins, in particular, play extremely low-event hockey at home, suppressing opponents by roughly three fewer shots per game at TD Garden compared to road games.

Both teams already skew toward low-shot environments, but Boston's home structure amplifies that effect. One could opt to take a different approach taking the team shot under at 27.5, while also taking Swayman's 25+ save line at +165, but when you combine the matchup data with the goalie market telling you the same thing, this becomes a confident, high-stakes team under.

Fabian Zetterlund 1+ Point (+135, 0.7u)

Zetterlund has slid seamlessly onto Ottawa's top line alongside Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle, and the results have been immediate. He's recorded six points over his past three games, benefiting from both prime even-strength deployment and surprisingly high power-play time on PP2.

The most important factor here is role stability. Zetterlund isn't riding fluke production; he's attached to Ottawa's primary offensive drivers and seeing enough ice time to sustain scoring chances. At +135, the market is still pricing him like a secondary piece, not a top-line winger in form. For a player producing at this rate in this role, this number is simply too generous to ignore.

Mikko Rantanen No Goal (–230, 2.3u)

Rantanen has been outstanding this season overall with 14 goals and 49 points in 36 games. He's surpassed my own expectations greatly (apologies if my preseason projection of 88 points made you miss out on him in).

Although, this is a spot where recent usage and form matter more than season-long production. Over his past four games, Rantanen has recorded seven points, but six of those have been assists. His goal-scoring profile has cooled noticeably, with his shot rates, scoring chances, and expected goal metrics all trending down over the past two weeks. He's still driving offense, but increasingly as a facilitator rather than a finisher.

That distinction matters because his goal line is still being priced like he's in peak scoring mode. He can absolutely contribute tonight, but more likely via assists than goals given his current role and underlying numbers. At this price, fading the goal rather than the point makes far more sense.

Same Game Parlay – Nikolaj Ehlers & Jackson Blake 1+ Point Each (+156, 0.8u)

2+ Points Each (+1200, 0.1u)

With Seth Jarvis sidelined, both Nikolaj Ehlers and Jackson Blake have been elevated into prime offensive roles for Carolina — skating together at even strength on the top line alongside Sebastian Aho, and sharing time on the top power play unit. That combination of deployment is exactly what we look for when targeting point-based SGPs.

Ehlers has been producing nicely without this deployment, recording at least one point in six of his last nine games. Blake has been right there with him, picking up a point in five of those six games where Ehlers also got on the scoresheet. While their direct point-to-point correlation sits around 40%, the more important factor here is shared opportunity — they're now involved in the same offensive sequences at both five-on-five and on the man advantage.

At +156, the 1+ point SGP is still offering value before books fully adjust to this new top-line usage. We're also adding a small ladder on the 2+ points each at +1200. That's not something we expect to hit often, but with elite deployment, high offensive involvement, and a condensed scoring environment around Aho, the price more than justifies a small sprinkle.

This is the type of SGP I'm willing to take: correlated roles, stable ice time, and odds that haven't yet caught up to reality.

Minnesota Wild – 1+ Power Play Goal (-110, 1.5u)

Since Quinn Hughes joined Minnesota, the Wild's power play has flipped from mediocre to elite. Over that span, they're converting at a 38.5% rate, moving the puck with far more pace and decisiveness than earlier in the season. The entries have been cleaner, the shot quality has improved, and the unit is consistently forcing penalty killers out of structure.

Nashville is a capable penalty-killing team on paper, but the bigger issue here is volume. The Predators have taken the second-most penalties in the league so far in December, routinely handing opponents close to four power play opportunities per game. Even strong penalty kills struggle to survive that kind of workload.

I considered stacking Minnesota's top-unit PPP props, but the individual prices simply aren't there right now. The team angle at -110 is the cleanest way to capture this edge, giving us exposure to all five skaters without paying the premium attached to name recognition. If Nashville continues to put Minnesota on the power play four times tonight, the Wild should find the net at least once.

NY Islanders Under 29.5 Team Shots (–124, 10u) AND NY Islanders Over 29.5 Team Shots (+155, 7.1u)

This is one of those spots where the purpose of Puck Picks goes beyond simply recommending a "good bet." This column is also about identifying structural edges against the sportsbooks — and this is a textbook example. Due to a pricing discrepancy between BetRivers and FanDuel that has been available for most of the morning, we're able to guarantee profit regardless of the outcome. This is not a gamble, It's not opinion-based. It's pure math and market inefficiency that will yield a 5.8% ROI in just one night.

These opportunities don't last long, and they don't show up every slate. If this pricing is still available while you're reading this, it's absolutely worth taking. If the lines have moved, do not blindly tail — run the math yourself and ensure the combined position still guarantees profit before placing anything. Finding and exploiting spots like this is one of the most reliable ways to gain a long-term edge over sportsbooks, and it's something I'll continue highlighting whenever it appears.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season. Happy holidays!