Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last week, we went 4-2 for +5.65 units. That brings the season record to 25-117 for +8.72 units, with an average bet return of 12.3%.

Let's dive into tonight's picks:

Brandon Bussi Under 22.5 Saves (-115, 1.14u)

In Seattle's two games against Carolina last season, the Kraken managed just 12 and 15 shots on goal. This one is in Finland, so Seattle might have some extra jump, but Carolina is still the league's elite puck possession team and limits shots against as well as anyone.

Bussi is allowing 3.23 goals per game, which means Seattle could get to 25 shots and we'd still hit the under. I like Carolina to keep pucks from getting to Bussi tonight, and even if they do get there, he's been shaky this season.

Taking the goalie under rather than the team shot under also adds the possibility of a really bad start, which happens around 15% of the time, or an injury. At -115, the book has this under at about 54%, and with those extra outs on our side, I have it comfortably higher. This is the only play I'll touch from the Global Series game.

St. Louis Blues Moneyline (+105, 2u)

Utah was missing Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley last night and also lost Nick Schmaltz during the game. It's unclear whether Cooley or Schmaltz will play tonight, so keep an eye on their statuses. If Kailer Yamamoto is playing 18+ minutes like he did last night, this Utah team is not the elite team it's been when healthy.

Either way, the goalie matchup is the big angle here. Karel Vejmelka is expected to start for Utah, and he hasn't looked like himself this season. On the other side, Joel Hofer is playing lights out with a .920 save percentage and a 2.33 GAA. At +105, the book is giving St. Louis about a 49% chance to win. With Utah's injuries and this goalie edge, I love taking the underdog Blues.

Alex Laferriere 3+ Shots (-120, 1.36u)

Laferriere continues to get big minutes with Panarin and Kempe at even strength and on the power play. He's taking full advantage of the opportunity, averaging 8.8 shot attempts and 4.3 shots on goal per game in that span while clearing 3+ shots in every one of those games.

Kevin Fiala's return tonight raises a few questions about what this team will look like, but Laferriere is still on the top unit as they try out a five-forward look. He might get fewer power-play attempts with the unit funneling through Fiala at the point, but at -120, which implies about 55%, I love him to keep his shooting streak going.

Dmitri Voronkov Under 1.5 Shots (-155, 1.5u)

Voronkov has been in and out of the lineup and getting bottom-six minutes this season. Last game, he clicked with Monahan and Nichushkin and actually got some top-six deployment. But that didn't translate into scoring or shooting chances of his own, with Nichushkin and Monahan eating up all of the shots on that line while Voronkov finished with zero.

In 11 games this season, he's only reached 2+ shots twice and has seven zero-shot outings. That's an 82% hit rate on the under, while -155 implies about 61%. Even with a second-line, second power-play role, he won't be shooting. These are good odds.

Brandon Duhaime 2+ Hits (-189, 2u)

Hit markets are a rarer find since many of the big sportsbooks don't offer them, but they're easier to exploit and more predictable game to game if you know what to look for. I always look for game-to-game consistency rather than averages in this market. A player like Arber Xhekaj has a lot of variance in his hits, sometimes getting four, sometimes zero, while other players consistently grab two or three.

Duhaime is one of those consistent players. He has 2+ hits in each of his last nine games and 3+ in seven of those. At -189, the book is giving him about a 65% chance, and he's been perfect on this line for weeks. I'm happy laying two units here, and I don't need to reach for the 3+ line.

No PPP Parlay (-123, 2u):

Brandon Hagel No Power-Play Point (-400 alone)

Mats Zuccarello No Power-Play Point (-325 alone)

Neal Pionk No Power-Play Point (-900 alone)

The No PPP Parlay is back! It's rare that we can take advantage of this side of the power-play point markets, but we have three great opportunities tonight.

Jon Cooper continues to save Brandon Hagel for even-strength and shorthanded minutes, opting for Sam O'Reilly on the top unit instead. Hagel's -400 price, assumes he has exposure to the top unit.

Mats Zuccarello makes his return tonight and has always been a power-play merchant, but he was practicing on the second unit. His -325 price, assumes he gets back on the top unit tonight.

Neal Pionk was the top-unit sub while Josh Morrissey was out, but he's now firmly back in a PP2 role. His -900 price, a 90% implied chance, is close to fair, but it should be closer to -1200, or about 92%.

Multiply those three legs together and you get roughly 55%, which is right where the -123 parlay price sits. Since the books aren't shading this parlay at all, our edge comes entirely from each leg being underpriced given the actual power-play deployment.

Good luck if you're tailing! Results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

Follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily betting picks and fantasy hockey analysis throughout the season.