Analytics Advantage: Deployment Importance for Carlsson, Laferriere, Lindholm, Toews, and Moser

Stas Pupkov

2026-02-27

The Olympic break is over, the games matter again, and this is the part of the season where fantasy value swings hardest on role. Coaches tighten rotations, contenders lean heavier on their best players, and "nice to have" deployment turns into "this guy is actually usable" deployment fast.

This week's list is five names that fit that exact post-break window. You've got a high-end young scorer returning to an Anaheim Ducks team still chasing the playoffs, a Los Angeles Kings winger whose value is tied directly to top-six opportunity and a playmaking boost, a Boston Bruins center stepping right back into premium usage, and two defensemen who show the opposite ends of the spectrum: one riding elite team context without the points catching up yet, and one logging big minutes while the power-play door stays locked.

As always, the goal here isn't to sell a hot streak. It's to identify where the minutes, special teams, and teammates are pointing right now, and what to watch over the next week to confirm whether these are real adds, schedule streams, or just "looks good on paper."
Data Sources:

Player data from Natural Stat Trick.

Yahoo roster percentages via Frozen Tools.

Line combinations and power-play deployment via Daily Faceoff and Frozen Tools.

All information current as of February 26th, 2026. Trade Deadline March 6th.

Leo Carlsson (67% Roster) – Anaheim Ducks

Role: L2, PP2 | Context: back from injury; Ducks in the playoff hunt

Carlsson's season line is doing the loud fantasy talking: 46 points in 45 games (1.02 P/GP) with 19 goals and 110 shots (2.44 SOG/GP). That's not a "nice young player" pace — that's a weekly difference-maker pace when he's in the lineup. The power-play involvement is real too (12 PPP with 3:20 PPTOI/GP), and the Ducks are giving him true workload minutes (19:25 TOI/GP).

The micro-trend is the story you'll want to frame: he came out scorching (Q1: 28 points in 21 games, 9 PPP), then cooled in Q2 (Q2: 13 points in 19 games, only 2 PPP), but the usage barely moved (still ~3:16 PPTOI, ~19:40 TOI). Then he returns from injury and immediately posts a statement game: 3 points vs Edmonton on February 25 with 4 shots and 4:52 PPTOI in 17:01. That's the kind of "back in business" game you want right before a fantasy stretch run.

Fantasy call:

Add/hold in all but the shallowest leagues; this is not a streamer profile when he's healthy and getting PPTOI north of 3 minutes.

Schedule note: Anaheim's next set is busy — Winnipeg, Calgary, Colorado (back-to-back with New York Islanders), Montreal, St. Louis coming up.

Watch list (next 1–2 weeks):

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Does PPTOI stay in that 3:00–5:00 range (Feb 25 spike to 4:52 is a great sign)?

Is he stapled to the best scoring look (your L2/PP2 note), or does he bounce lines again (he's already had multiple combos across quarters)?

Shot volume staying around 2.5+/game. If that holds with this points pace, it's set-and-forget.

Alex Laferriere (39%) – Los Angeles Kings

Role: L1, PP2, PK1 | Context: Kevin Fiala injured opens top-six; Panarin on the squad boosts everyone around him

Laferriere is the kind of fantasy add that doesn't have to score a bunch to matter because the category base is already doing work. On the year he's sitting at 163 hits in 57 games (2.86 hits/GP) with 134 shots (2.35 SOG/GP) and 17:23 TOI/GP, which is a clean banger-league profile even before you talk about any "top line" opportunity. The power-play production is basically nonexistent (1 PPP on 1:29 PPTOI/GP), so the path to a true breakout in points leagues is narrower, but this is exactly why the current situation matters.

Your line context shows how he's trending: by Q3 he's getting those higher-end looks more often, including Artemi PanarinAdrian KempeAlex Laferriere as a listed combo. Even without a PP1 runway, Panarin driving a line at 5v5 can turn Laferriere into a "points show up without you needing PP goals" type of streamer — especially when he already brings shots + hits.

The recent game log shows a floor with some growth spurts, he has points in 4 of his last 10 (Jan 24: 2 points, plus helpers Jan 27/31, and another on Feb 15), while still stacking peripherals most nights (Feb 25 vs Vegas: 3 SOG, 4 hits; Feb 4 vs Seattle: 5 hits, 2 blocks). That's the usable fantasy shape: you're not chasing a heater; you're buying stable deployment + multi-cat production and hoping the new top-six environment pushes the scoring up a notch.

Fantasy call:

Cats/bangers: add/hold — the hits+shots floor is legit, and the line context gives upside.

Points-only: stream while he's riding the premium 5v5 spot; he's not a "must-roster" without PP1.

Watch list (next week):

Does he stay glued to Panarin/Kempe-type minutes, or does he slide back into the middle-six once the lineup normalizes?

Any sign of PP usage actually growing (right now it's mostly "PPTOI exists," not "PP points happen").

Keep an eye on the shot volume staying 2+ per night — if it dips, the points-only case gets thin fast.

Elias Lindholm (30%) – Boston Bruins

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Role: L1, PP1 | Context: back from injury; Boston pushing for playoffs

This is the cleanest kind of post-injury fantasy signal: Lindholm comes back and the role is still premium. On the season he's at 38 points in 45 games (0.84 P/GP) with a heavy share of special team value (18 PPP) and 2:47 PPTOI/GP. He's also doing the "real center stuff" that keeps deployment sticky: 407 faceoff wins and 54.5% at the dot.

The quarter split shows why he's been such a nice fantasy piece even without huge shot volume (1.6 SOG/GP). Q1 was strong (9 points in 13, 7 PPP, 3:27 PPTOI), then Q2 stayed productive (17 points in 19, 7 PPP) even as PPTOI dipped to 2:31. Q3 is more of the same: 12 points in 13 with 4 PPP and his overall TOI rising again (18:10). In other words: production has held while his minutes haven't fallen off a cliff — exactly what you want from a guy you're trusting in the stretch run.

The game log shows he hasn't missed a beat. Since January 3, he has points in a bunch of spots, including a big one on Jan 26 vs New York Rangers (2G on 4 SOG, 20:43 TOI), and he's still feeding you PP value (Jan 22 vs Vegas: PPG + PPP, 1G 1A, 19:44 TOI). Most recent: Feb 26 vs Columbus: 1A, 2 SOG, 19:35 TOI — not flashy, but it's a "minutes and role intact" game.

Fantasy call:

Add/hold in all standard formats.

With L1 + PP1 on a strong team and 0.84 P/GP, he should be in your lineup unless an injury occurs.

Watch list (next 1–2 weeks):

PPTOI staying around ~2:30–3:00 (or climbing back toward the early-season 3:27 level).

Shot volume: if it creeps above ~2.0 SOG/GP, the ceiling jumps.

Line stability with David Pastrnak (he's spent a lot of time tied to that anchor across quarters).

Devon Toews (43%) – Colorado Avalanche

Role: L1, PP2, PK2 | Context: Colorado scores in bunches; Toews benefits via minutes and environment

Toews is a perfect example of why "good team, huge minutes" can still be fantasy-usable even when the box score looks quiet. This year he's at 22:10 TOI/GP with 0 PPP and just 13 points in 44 games (0.30 P/GP) — so if you're expecting last year's offense, it's not there right now. But the deployment hasn't collapsed: he's still living on the top pair most of the time, and on a team that can hang 4–5 goals on anyone, points can "radiate" to a defenseman simply because he's on the ice for everything.

The quarter split shows the usage pattern clearly: Q1 he was all-time stable (23:14 TOI), Q2 dips a bit (21:25), then Q3 is a tiny sample (4 GP) but still over 20 minutes. He's also still blocking shots at a strong rate (61 blocks in 44 games = 1.39 BKS/GP), and that's a real fantasy floor in leagues that count blocks.

The game log tells you what's driving the recent frustration: he's been quiet offensively lately (last four logged games: 0 points, though he's still putting pucks on net and eating minutes e.g. 25:56 vs San Jose, 21:38 @ Utah, 25:23 vs Minnesota). There are signs of life earlier in the season — the best example is November 8 @ Edmonton: 3 assists — but those spikes haven't been repeating, and the power-play hasn't provided any cushion (0 PPP on the season, with PPTOI usually around ~1:00).

Fantasy call:

Cats/bangers (blocks matter): hold / add as a stabilizer, especially if you need blocks + TOI volume from the blue line.

Points-only: more of a hold if you believe in team context — but he's not a priority add until the points wake up or the PP role changes.

Watch list (next 1–2 weeks):

Any bump in PPTOI above the usual ~1:00–1:15 (right now it's not creating offense).

Shot volume staying near ~2 SOG/game — if the points return, that helps it stick.

Pairing stability (he's seen stretches with Makar and some mixing; if he's consistently stapled to the best minutes, the "points by proximity" thesis stays alive).

J.J. Moser (20%) – Tampa Bay Lightning

Role: L1, PK2 | Context: Victor Hedman back means basically no PP runway

Moser's fantasy profile this year is extremely honest: he's giving Tampa big minutes and you're getting the "real hockey" value (and some cats value), but the power-play door is shut. He's at 22:04 TOI/GP with essentially zero PP usage (0:04 PPTOI/GP, 1 PPP total) — so the ceiling in points formats is capped hard. That matches your note perfectly: with Hedman in the picture, Moser's offense is mostly limited to 5v5 secondary assists and the occasional random spike.

Still, there's a floor in the right league settings. The blocks are strong: 74 blocks in 55 games (1.35 BKS/GP), plus decent PIM volume (49 PIM, 0.89/GP). Hits are modest (0.76/GP), but he's not a zero there either.

The quarterly usage makes the story almost funny in its consistency: his PPTOI is basically a rounding error every quarter (0:03, 0:02, 0:07) while his TOI sits around 21–23 minutes nightly. So, if you're rostering him, it's for stability and defensive categories — not because you think a power-play breakout is coming.

Recent log shows exactly that: points arrive as single assists while he continues to soak minutes. Over his last several games he's popped assists vs Carolina (Feb 26), Buffalo (Feb 3), Winnipeg (Jan 29), Utah (Jan 26), and earlier Philadelphia/Los Angeles/Anaheim — but it's not stacking into multi-point runs, and the PP column stays at 0:00 almost every night. The exception is Jan 26 vs Utah where he logged 1:23 PPTOI and picked up a PPP — that's the kind of outlier you don't chase unless it repeats.

Fantasy call:

Cats/bangers (blocks matter): stream/hold in deeper leagues as a blocks + TOI stabilizer.

Points-only: leave on waivers unless you're desperate for games played — the PP ceiling just isn't there.

Watch list (next 1–2 weeks):

Any real PPTOI change (not 0:04 → 0:10, but actual 1:00+ nightly).

Pair stability (he's been with different partners; if he's consistently next to Hedman again, that's more "safe minutes" than "more points").

Blocks staying in that 1.3+ per game range — that's the category reason to roster him.

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