Free Agency 2026: Salary Projections for the Top-65 Free Agents
Alexander MacLean
2026-05-27
With the draft lottery in the recent past now, the world championships underway, and the Stanley Cup final nearly upon us, there aren't many eyes already turned to July first. However, as I always try to publish in the spring, I have my final list of projected annual cap hits for each of the top free agents. This year we're going with 65, because below the $2 million mark, there are a lot more politics involved with which players get the money and the contracts, as compared to the middle and upper tiers of players.
Two Olympic hopefuls who just couldn't make the cut for their respective countries are the top players on their lists. Jason Robertson is in his prime, and this will likely be the biggest contract he signs in his career, so he will likely have to milk this one for every penny he can, especially after having taken a reasonably team-friendly deal the last time. Meanwhile, Connor Bedard is working on his ascension to superstardom, and at only 20 years old it's highly unlikely that this will be the largest deal he signs, so he doesn't necessarily have to milk every dollar. That being said, this is a rising cap era, and with Bedard still growing as a player, if he signs at too low of a number he risks being underpaid as early as year one.
Alex Tuch is the top UFA on the board, and is going to get paid as a result, but the more fascinating story this summer is how the RFAs will reset their market, and how they will fall in line behind Bedard. If Bedard manages a $14 million cap hit, then how can you pay Leo Carlsson any less than $12 million, which would bring Cutter Gauthier, Adam Fantilli, and maybe Trevor Zegras up closer to the $10 million mark as well. If Bedard takes a four-year deal at $10 million per season, then it's really going to cap the other negotiations. If Bedard and/or Carlsson drag out late into the summer, then we might see a lot of RFAs follow suit. With the cap rising as it is though, teams have room to get these done now, so I would bet on them being signed earlier rather than later, and I would also be betting the over on most of these compared to the under.
Evgeni Malkin marks the first signee off this list after re-upping yesterday (May 26th) on a one-year deal for $5.5 million. That comes in extremely close to the projected $5.41 million listed below. It’s a tough look when you peak so early in these kinds of things, but we’ll take the win for now!
Anyone not on the list below is projected somewhere between the $2.0 million mark, and the league-minimum cap hit of $850K next season.
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the projection system, please let me know. You can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.
Comments are always appreciated.
| Rank | Name | Age | Pos | Free Agent Status | Projected Cap Hit |
| 1 | Jason Robertson | 26 | F | RFA | $13,250,000 |
| 2 | Connor Bedard | 20 | F | RFA | $12,200,000 |
| 3 | Alex Tuch | 30 | F | UFA | $11,060,000 |
| 4 | Leo Carlsson | 21 | F | RFA | $10,210,000 |
| 5 | Pavel Dorofeyev | 25 | F | RFA | $9,310,000 |
| 6 | Adam Fantilli | 21 | F | RFA | $8,980,000 |
| 7 | John Carlson | 36 | D | UFA | $7,830,000 |
| 8 | Cutter Gauthier | 22 | F | RFA | $7,630,000 |
| 9 | Connor McMichael | 25 | F | RFA | $7,590,000 |
| 10 | Trevor Zegras | 25 | F | RFA | $7,330,000 |
| 11 | Zach Benson | 21 | F | RFA | $7,060,000 |
| 12 | Brandt Clarke | 23 | D | RFA | $7,010,000 |
| 13 | Mavrik Bourque | 24 | F | RFA | $6,880,000 |
| 14 | Alex Ovechkin | 40 | F | UFA | $6,700,000 |
| 15 | Darren Raddysh | 30 | D | UFA | $6,660,000 |
| 16 | Alexander Nikishin | 24 | D | RFA | $6,520,000 |
| 17 | Bobby McMann | 29 | F | UFA | $6,190,000 |
| 18 | Mason Marchment | 31 | F | UFA | $6,190,000 |
| 19 | Barrett Hayton | 25 | F | RFA | $5,750,000 |
| 20 | Jordan Spence | 25 | D | RFA | $5,640,000 |
| 21 | Pavel Mintyukov | 22 | D | RFA | $5,640,000 |
| 22 | Olen Zellweger | 22 | D | RFA | $5,640,000 |
| 23 | Jamie Drysdale | 24 | D | RFA | $5,490,000 |
| 24 | Stuart Skinner | 27 | G | UFA | $5,480,000 |
| 25 | Evgeni Malkin | 39 | F | Signed 1-yr at $5.5 M | $5,410,000 |
| 26 | Simon Edvinsson | 23 | D | RFA | $5,150,000 |
| 27 | Anthony Mantha | 31 | F | UFA | $5,070,000 |
| 28 | Eeli Tolvanen | 27 | F | UFA | $4,920,000 |
| 29 | Cole Perfetti | 24 | F | RFA | $4,910,000 |
| 30 | Rasmus Andersson | 29 | D | UFA | $4,790,000 |
| 31 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 25 | F | RFA | $4,740,000 |
| 32 | Mario Ferraro | 27 | D | UFA | $4,460,000 |
| 33 | Jaden Schwartz | 33 | F | UFA | $4,400,000 |
| 34 | Jacob Trouba | 32 | D | UFA | $4,380,000 |
| 35 | Claude Giroux | 38 | F | UFA | $4,330,000 |
| 36 | Connor Ingram | 29 | G | UFA | $4,290,000 |
| 37 | Cole Sillinger | 23 | F | RFA | $4,160,000 |
| 38 | Jet Greaves | 25 | G | RFA | $4,100,000 |
| 39 | Vladimir Tarasenko | 34 | F | UFA | $3,960,000 |
| 40 | Collin Graf | 23 | F | RFA | $3,620,000 |
| 41 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 37 | G | UFA | $3,570,000 |
| 42 | Oliver Bjorkstrand | 31 | F | UFA | $3,550,000 |
| 43 | Arturs Silovs | 25 | G | RFA | $3,520,000 |
| 44 | Marcus Johansson | 35 | F | UFA | $3,480,000 |
| 45 | Cody Glass | 27 | F | UFA | $3,250,000 |
| 46 | Kirby Dach | 25 | F | RFA | $3,180,000 |
| 48 | Bobby Brink | 24 | F | RFA | $3,080,000 |
| 49 | Jack Roslovic | 29 | F | UFA | $3,080,000 |
| 50 | Daniil Tarasov | 27 | G | UFA | $3,030,000 |
| 51 | Patrik Laine | 28 | F | UFA | $2,870,000 |
| 52 | Boone Jenner | 32 | F | UFA | $2,840,000 |
| 53 | Matias Maccelli | 25 | F | RFA | $2,630,000 |
| 54 | Logan Stanley | 28 | D | UFA | $2,620,000 |
| 55 | Egor Chinakhov | 25 | F | RFA | $2,610,000 |
| 56 | Viktor Arvidsson | 33 | F | UFA | $2,590,000 |
| 57 | Samuel Ersson | 26 | G | RFA | $2,570,000 |
| 58 | Peyton Krebs | 25 | F | RFA | $2,550,000 |
| 59 | Victor Olofsson | 30 | F | UFA | $2,520,000 |
| 60 | Anders Lee | 35 | F | UFA | $2,520,000 |
| 61 | Patrick Kane | 37 | F | UFA | $2,390,000 |
| 62 | Michael DiPietro | 26 | G | RFA | $2,370,000 |
| 63 | Frederik Andersen | 36 | G | UFA | $2,250,000 |
| 64 | David Rittich | 33 | G | UFA | $2,110,000 |
| 65 | Ryan Shea | 29 | D | UFA | $2,060,000 |
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I love seeing this article every year, typically your predictions are pretty accurate. I would love for you to be right about everyone else not on the list being less than 2 million. At least I’m sure Edmonton would love to get Connor Murphy, Kasperi Kapanen and Jason Dickenson resigned all for under 2 million each.