This week we are returning to our division reviews and identifying candidates to bounce back and candidates to avoid on draft day. We have already reviewed the Pacific and Central Divisions, so today we move on to the Metro.

As a reminder here is a little context setting from the original article.

In order to make this process a bit more concrete we are going to focus on three stats from the Dobber Reports; five on five team shooting percentage (5on5 S%), individual points percentage (IPP), and individual shooting percentage (S%). These are certainly not the end all be all of player evaluation but do tend to flag players who are likely to see a different point pace in the future.

Before jumping into the players, let's do a quick refresher on what these stats tell us. We use team shooting percentage to get an idea of how many points are being scored while a player is on the ice. We use five on five because that is the largest game state for players. Power-play points count just the same on the score sheet so we could look at that as well, but in the interest of cutting down our data points we are going to focus on even the strength number here. IPP, which we will sometimes refer to as a player's points participation is how often a player is getting a point on a goal that is scored while they are on the ice. Finally, shooting percentage is just the standard: what percent of a player's shots are going into the net?

With all of these stats thought it is important to take them into context. Not just what would an average player do, but how does this number compare to their career numbers? In order to do that I grabbed the same data points for the 2025-26 season and am comparing them to each player's recent career average. Broadly speaking, and barring changes in the player's situation (changing teams, sudden promotion to a top line etc.) we would expect these numbers to return that career average.  

For our first group we are looking at players whose underlying numbers in question were lower than their recent career averages. Generally speaking, we might expect these numbers to revert back to those averages and therefore those players to have a bit more production in the future.

Oliver Bjorkstrand had been averaging a 50–55-point pace over his time in Seattle, but the move to Tampa did nothing for him. Sure, he did get some power-play time on the top unit, but that was about the extent of it. He ended with only a 33-point pace, but with 14 power-play points. This is definitely a good news section of the article, though, and if this was a Seattle season he would have deserved quite a bit better. Probably closer to a 45-point pace. That still is a decline, but that is due to the fact that he saw less than 14 minutes a night in Tampa instead of 16 or so in Seattle. The good news is that he is no longer in Tampa, so hopefully can see a tick up in time on ice. We do still have a lot of uncertainty about what exactly his role will be with the Rangers, but it seems like he is due for better things in 2025-26.

Will the real 5th overall pick please stand up? Kent Johnson finished his fourth full season with a career low 24-point pace. This is following up a 69-point pace over 68 games in 2024-25. Now clearly there are some indications that he deserved a bit better, but only to the tune of a 40-point pace. It is a big improvement, but still not really relevant. The issue was time on ice. In 2024-25 he saw over 17 minutes a night on average, and over 70 percent of the team's power play. In 2025-26 it was back down to below 14 minutes on average, and less than 40 percent of the team's power play. Johnson's fall then, and his ability to rebound has less to do with getting unlucky and more to do with actually being put in positions to succeed.

J.T. Miller has had quite the ride in the last few seasons. Now back in New York for a full season, he saw his point pace drop to 64, his lowest pace since 2018-19. His overall time on ice, power-play deployment, and shot rates all look pretty consistent with recent seasons so it should come as no surprise that his drop is essentially due to some variants in these underlying numbers. If he had gotten closer to his recent career averages he would have ended with something closer to a 75–80-point pace – exactly the point pace he has averaged over his last seven seasons. He is 33, and changing teams is certainly an opportunity to set a new baseline in his underlying numbers, but assuming his deployment stays relatively consistent (20 plus minutes overall, 70 percent of the team's power play), there doesn't seem to be any real reason he can't get back to an 80ish point pace.

Unfortunately, we also have some players whose underlying numbers were a bit higher than we expected, meaning that their production might not be the most sustainable.

Listing Egor Chinakov in the chart here seems like it should be bad news. He put up a 48-point pace and the underlying numbers indicate he should regress. The difference though, as stated in the intro, is that these numbers would return to career numbers barring any change in situation. Chinakov had a relatively large one during the course of the 2025-26 season. He put up an almost 70-point pace once he arrived in Pittsburgh. And yes, some of the underlying numbers indicate that it was different from his time in Columbus. Regressing his shooting percentage to career normal would drop his point pace to closer to 55. 70 seems a bit too high, but given his new role, 50 feels like a baseline, not a potential high-water mark.

Mika Zibanejad rebounded to a 79-point pace after a relatively poor performance in 2024-25. The bad news is that some of his numbers were a touch high, indicating some of the rebound might not have been for real. The good news is that they were not incredibly high, and he also saw a career high average time on ice, and power-play share. Those all led to a rebound in shot rates to almost three per game. In all he probably earned closer to a 70-point pace, so going forward a safe bet might be 70-75 points vs 80-85.

After bouncing around to multiple teams the last few years, Shayne Gostisbehere seems to have found a home in Carolina. He is not quite getting 20 minutes a night, but is sheltered and is getting time on the top power play. It worked for him in 2025-26 to the tune of a 75-point pace, and a tie for his highest shot rate in the last six seasons. Clearly he is on this list because the numbers say he might have overperformed, and it does look like it. He should still be a valuable power-play contributor going forward but expect closer to a 65-point pace than a 75-point pace.

That is all for this week. Do your part to support organizations working to make hockey for everyone.

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