In last Tuesday's Eastern Edge, we looked at a couple of lines in the Atlantic division that benefitted from an elevated 5v5 shooting percentage and ended up performing better than they should have. Today we will do the opposite and examine recent draft picks, sifting out some players who were mired in bad luck, with line mates that just couldn't put the puck in the net.

2021 NHL Draft (51^st overall)

We start with the new $32-million man, Ville Koivunen, a Hurricanes 2^nd round pick in 2021. At age 20, he finished tied with former NHLer Jori Lehtera for 6^th in SM-liiga scoring. He came over to the Penguins in the Jake Guentzel trade, and in his first taste of NHL action he scored seven points in eight games, all assists. That same season (2024-25) he led the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins with 56 points in 63 games. This season he pushed his AHL points per game even higher, collecting 41 points in 34 games. That 1.21 points per game was 5^th best in the entire AHL. With the big club however, he scored seven points again, but over 39 games instead of eight games.

Why the decreased output? There were many factors. Firstly, his average ice time plummeted from 18:07 to 12:44. He got very little power play time compared to the eight-game stint in 2024-25 when he was pretty much on PP1. His shooting percentage was low (5.6%) and his 5v5 on ice shooting percentage was even lower (4.7%). Interesting note, in 2024-25, Koivunen's 5v5 on ice shooting percentage was a microscopic 2.7%, meaning throughout his 47-game NHL career, the players on the ice with him have had extremely poor luck burying the puck.

Some will argue how you can give $32-million to a player that has just two NHL goals, but if you look at the underlying numbers and Koivunen's success at the AHL level, GM Kyle Dubas has made a smart bet. Of course, there is risk involved but with the momentous shift in the salary landscape, a $4 million AAV might be peanuts for a player that can develop into a top six forward. Legendary veterans like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kirs Letang, and Erik Karlsson, all have their contract expiring within the next two years. In fact, the same holds true for everyone over the age of 30 (excluding Ryan Graves, but including Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Trevor Van Riemsdyk, and Andrei Kuzmenko). Better deployment, a depth chart that will clear out soon, and advanced stats all point to huge bump in production.

2022 NHL Draft (8^th overall)

In Detroit, Dylan Larkin has declared that he wants out. The center depth behind him is quite weak with Andrew Copp and JT Compher. Michael Rasmussen also split time between center and wing. That leaves the door open for 8^th overall pick in 2022: Marco Kasper. Some of you might be thinking 'I remember that guy, I was open to him being a good player after his rookie season, but he crashed so hard that I have written him off'. Do not be so quick to underestimate him, because the underlying numbers say otherwise.

As is the theme for this article, Kasper's 5v5 on ice shooting percentage was only 5.9%. His shooting percentage was also on the low end (6.9%). The year before for example he was shooting at 13.1%. Only two of his 10 assists were secondary, meaning he will pick up more secondary assists. Kasper played in 81 games but only averaged 13:48 of time on ice. The year before he received 15:27. With Larkin likely on the move, Kasper's ice time could shoot up to at least the 17:00 minute mark. Therefore, we could be looking at an increase (a) in ice time (b) in the secondary assist rate (c) in 5v5 shooting percentage (d) in personal shooting percentage and (e) in power play time. Midway through the season, he should be hitting the 200 games played mark as well. In other categories, Kasper also provided a solid 2.30 hits/game.

2023 NHL Draft (27^th overall)

Lastly, we look at young center Calum Ritchie, who was acquired by the Islanders in the trade that send Brock Nelson to the Avalanche.

Ritchie had four productive seasons with the Oshawa Generals, cumulatively scoring 254 points in 221 games through his ages 16 to 19 season. For the last three of those campaigns, he was teammates with Beckett Sennecke, 3^rd overall pick of the Anaheim Ducks in 2024. Ritchie led the 2022-23 Gretzky Hlinka Cup in assists (6) and points (10).

In his 65 games with the Islanders in 2025-26, we can contrast his production between the first half and the second half. Why? Because in the first 32 games he wasn't on the top power play unit, and in the next 32 games he was on the top power play unit. The last game of the season is not counted for the purposes of this exercise as Victor Eklund was given a spin on the top PP unit in that final regular season tilt against Carolina.

Ritchie's first 32 games: 11 points (0.34 ppg)

Ritchie's next 32 games: 19 points (0.59 ppg).

Pete DeBoer was hired at the tail end of the season, and he continued to deploy Ritchie on the top power play (except the aforementioned last game of the season).

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Ritchie's linemates were not getting the job done. His 5v5 shooting percentage was 5.9%, same as Marco Kasper. Ritchie's secondary assist rate was even lower than Kasper's at 17.6%.

The two areas where we will see negative regression is Ritchie's IPP, which was high, as well as his own elevated shooting percentage (16.5%). If we run the same exercise for Ritchie's shooting percentage, we find that it was higher in the first half of his season.

Ritchie's first 32 games: 7 goals on 37 shots (18.9%)

Ritchie's next 32 games: 6 goals on 40 shots (15.0%)

Ritchie's time on ice also went up in the second half, but for the season, he only averaged 13:28 of ice time. What you see in the second half of Ritchie's numbers is the baseline, and we are looking at upcoming rises in ice time, power play ice time, 5v5 shooting percentage, and secondary assist rates.

Two of the three players mentioned in this article are also listed as sleepers in the Dobber Guide. There are 40 sleepers for readers to peruse, 20 in each conference. Dobber's Annual Guide can be purchased in the Dobber Shop.

Player usage data from Frozen Tools. Salary information from capwages.com.

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