A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about some of the stats that correlate well to future production both among forwards and among defencemen. The next three Ramblings after that focused on forwards whose tracking data improvements portend point production improvements, forwards whose tracking data has declined, and which forwards showed playmaking increases. Today, we'll round out the forward group and highlight those with drops in their playmaking indicators, which raises questions for the 2026-27 campaign.

As a refresher, these are the two 5-on-5 playmaking stats we're focused on:

• Chance Assists/60: The rate at which a forward assists on a teammate's scoring chance per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
• Assists/60: The rate of a player's actual assist production per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.

Tracking data is compiled by All Three Zones with player data from Evolving Hockey. We are focusing on what forwards did in the 2025-26 season compared to the two years from 2023-2025. Using a 5-on-5 ice time cut off for both all their minutes and their tracked minutes, we get a sample of 160 forwards. The positions listed for each attacker come from Yahoo.

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In the following graphs, the yellow dots are the players in the bottom 25% for changes in both their chance assist and overall assist rates at 5-on-5, the blue dots mean the player didn't reach that threshold in both categories, and a red dot highlights one player among a clump of options for the sake of clarity. The red lines represent the average changes among the forwards in our sample.

Aliaksei Protas (Washington Capitals – LW/RW)

Back in 2024-25, Protas had a breakout year with 30 goals and 66 points. He had as many 5-on-5 assists as Leon Draisaitl (30) and did so in 126 fewer minutes played. Things came back down to earth in 2025-26 as he had the third-largest drop in his chance assists per 60 minutes while his actual assist rate dropped over 0.5 per 60 minutes:

It is a wonder how the lengthy injury from Pierre-Luc Dubois factored in as Protas often skates on the second line and that largely keeps him away from Dylan Strome. Dubois is healthy, the Capitals stocked up on forwards during the offseason, so it would seem as if Protas is poised for a rebound.

Here is the problem. Over the last two years, there were 147 instances of a forward reaching the 60-point mark. Protas' 2024-25 season is the only time a player posted at least 60 points and had five-or-fewer power-play points. Of the 147 seasons with 60+ points, just two others (Alex Tuch and Ivan Barbashev in 2025-26) reached that plateau with fewer than 10 PP points. With the additions of Tuch and Jordan Kyrou, and some growth expected from Ryan Leonard, there is a lot of competition for ice time in Washington; I don't think Protas reaches 18:14 per game again. Without hyper-efficiency or a power-play role, and considering the playmaking declines, that 66-point mark seems out of reach.

Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers – C)

In 2025-26, McDavid's 0.82 primary assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was a career-worst. However, skating all 82 games, putting up the highest power-play point total of the last three years, and skating 23 minutes a game will paper over a lot of efficiency problems at 5-on-5. Nonetheless, that drop in assist rate was accompanied by a sizeable drop in his tracked chance assists:

It is important to mention that he had a similar 5-on-5 assist mark in 2022-23, and the following season he rebounded for the best 5-on-5 production effort of his career. It would be foolish to write off McDavid as in decline, at least to a level where we should be concerned about his production. Until further notice, we should expect him at-or-near the top of the points chart every year. That doesn't mean we shouldn't keep an eye on red flags like this because he'll turn 30 years old in January and has nearly 900 total NHL games played. For now, it's nothing to be concerned about. The concern will come if there is another drop in 2026-27.

Jordan Eberle (Seattle Kraken – RW)

Let's turn our attention to a former teammate of McDavid, and one where age-related decline is a genuine concern. Eberle turned 36 years old back in May and has over 1200 combined NHL appearances to his name. That is a lot of miles on the body, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he makes our list:

It is funny to see this on the back of a year where Eberle posted 0.69 points per game, his second-highest mark of the last six years. He did that producing 16 power-play points against a two-year average of 11.6 per 82 games, managing his highest shooting percentage since 2011-12, and the most ice time per game in over a decade. That is a lot of signs of regression, so Eberle's 55-point season feels like one last gasp for a guy who was a top 6 winger, if not top line winger, for his entire career. Playing in Seattle doesn't provide reassurances that others will be able to elevate his production if he continues his decline.

Travis Konecny (Philadelphia Flyers – LW/RW)

Last season, Konecny managed 1.22 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a decrease from the 1.4 assists per 60 minutes he averaged across the prior two seasons. That is not a huge drop, and still a top-line rate, but it is a drop nonetheless, and we see that not only in the assist rate but the chance assists, too:

This is where I wonder if line mates matter. Konecny's most common centre was Christian Dvorak, but his most common winger was Trevor Zegras. The former Anaheim Duck is the best playmaker Konecny has had on his line in quite some time, and Zegras had a nice rebound effort in his first year with the Flyers. They ended up with near-identical assist rates, so it's a wonder if Zegras didn't eat up some assists that would have otherwise gone to Konecny.

Either way, Konecny lost 1:31 per game in ice time when compared to 2024-25, the team should have a healthy Tyson Foerster and much-improved Matvei Michkov, so Konecny might now be a 70-point player rather than push towards point-per-game status; the Dobber Fantasy Guide thinks so as he's projected for 70 points in 80 games. The one hope is if the team can improve their power play, but given how bad it has been for years, that is a hope and not a probability.

Kirill Kaprizov (Minnesota Wild – LW)

The 2025-26 campaign saw Kaprizov post the lowest 5-on-5 points rate of his career (1.85) and second-lowest assist rate (1.02). His overall assist rate declined 27% compared to the two years prior, and his primary assist rate fell by nearly 42%. Those are substantial declines, and backed up by his drop in tracked scoring chance assists:

This is another case where line mates matter. Over the last three years, when Kaprizov had at least one of Matt Boldy or Mats Zuccarello on his other wing, the Wild generated 30.2 shots and scored 3.4 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick). When Kaprizov had neither on his wing, the shots dropped 15% and goals dropped 32%. Zuccarello is now in Los Angeles and Boldy frequently skates on the second line. If Boldy and Kaprizov are kept separate, can the latter find high-end goal-scoring chemistry with the likes of Blake Coleman, Bobby Brink, or Maxim Shabanov? If he doesn't find that chemistry, Kaprizov is more a 90- to 95-point player rather than a 100- to 105-point player.

Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars – LW/RW)

It is amazing what an elite power play can do. Robertson posted 45 goals and 51 assists last year despite a 5-on-5 points rate that dropped 10% from the prior two seasons and an assist rate that dropped 29%. As with Kaprizov, that decline in 5-on-5 assists was accompanied by a decline in tracked chance assists:

There needs to be a bit more context here. From 2023-2025, Robertson was responsible for nearly 25% of all shots Dallas landed when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. In 2025-26, that rate exceeded 34%. He gobbled up way more shots than he normally does, and fewer shots from his line mates would mean fewer opportunities for him to rack up assists. Add the fact that his 41 power-play points was the fifth-highest total in the league and the drop in assists didn't really matter for his fantasy value.

All that, plus an additional 2:27 per game in ice time, gave us the season that Robertson had. I will be honest that I wasn't very keen on drafting the top Dallas forwards in any fantasy format last season and that was a 50/50 proposition for me: avoiding Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz worked out, but avoiding Robertson and Wyatt Johnston did not. If Robertson skates 20 minutes a night and the Dallas power play is among the league's best again, he can be a 40-50 player once more. He should get a lot of ice time due to the lack of forward depth in Dallas, so the power-play efficiency is the crux of all this.

The Dobber Guide's projection for Robertson is 109 points in 84 games. I am a bit more skeptical, but despite some declines he's shown, I believe he's closer to the guy he was in 2025-26 than he was the prior two seasons.