For bubble keeper week we will go through some Eastern conference forwards and analyze some of their statistics to determine if they are worthy of a keeper spot. Of course, each league has different categories, sizes, and a variable number of keeper slots, so it is not a 'one size fits all' recommendation.

Trevor Zegras

If we take his first season in Philadelphia and divide it into 2025 and 2026, we find something interesting. Zegras had 39 points in 39 games from October to December, but from January till April he only scored 28 points in 42 games (0.67 ppg). That is a significant drop off. Which Zegras was the real one? To answer that question we investigate the shooting percentage splits:

In 2025: 15 goals on 86 shots (17.4%)

In 2026: 11 goals on 81 shots (13.5%)

The career average for Zegras is actually lower (12.3%), so his true production might be below BOTH options. Philadelphia is one of the teams that runs a near-even split between the first and second power play units, where no one got more than three minutes of power play time. The power play has been unsuccessful in Philadelphia, where the team has finished last (15.7%), third last (14.5%), last (12.2%), last (15.6%), and last (12.6%) in the previous five seasons. Zegras was able to accumulate 23 power play points last year on a league-low 37 Philly power play goals. The last time a Flyer had 23 or more power play points: We have to go back to 2019-20 when Travis Konecny hit that mark (5g, 18a). Zegras scored a surprising 10 goals on just 43 power play shots, so his 5v4 shooting percentage (23.2%) should regress as well. If Zegras cannot replicate those man advantage numbers on a poor power play, he might not be a good keeper choice.

JT Miller

Miller's points per game have faded from 1.27 to 0.97 to 0.78 over the last three seasons. With the departure of Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, many have left Miller for dead. Two things that will improve for Miller include his shooting percentage (11.8%) that should rise towards his career average of 14.7%, as well as his 5v5 shooting percentage which was even lower (8.5%). Through the first 16 games of the season, the Rangers only had five power play goals, shooting an incomprehensible 6.33% at 5v4. That man advantage shooting percentage was lower than the lowest team even strength shooting percentage all season (New Jersey Devils at 7.22%). Miller was among those that were snakebit during that first fifth of the season, registering eight points in his initial 16 games. If we remove that period, Miller accumulated 45 points in 52 games (0.86 ppg). He is a lock for the top power play unit and 20+ minutes of ice time per game. Amongst all Rangers, he had the lowest goals scored above expected (-5.3), and as the advanced stats corrected themselves later in the season, Miller wrapped up the campaign with 31 points in 33 games (0.94 ppg). You could keep JT Miller, but because his perceived value is low, you could also take the risk to let him go back into the draft and nab him earlier than expected. 

Drake Batherson

Batherson took a step forward last year hitting the 0.90 points per game mark. In the three seasons prior, he had settled in at 196 points in 246 games (0.80 ppg). There are however two red flags of unsustainability. The first one is that 18 of Batherson's 38 assists were secondary in nature. That 47.4% mark is the highest Batherson has had in his last six seasons. The other statistic that should regress next year is his 19.8% shooting percentage. If he had shot his career average of 13.9%, he would have had 10 fewer goals, and a points per game average (0.77) more in line with his usual production. On the power play, Batherson had 13 goals on 40 shots. That shooting percentage of 32.5% was third highest in the league at 5v4. These factors push him out of a keeper spot. Batherson's +9.1 goals scored above expected was more than double that of the second highest Senator (Tim Stutzle at +4.9). Batherson has only missed three games in the last four seasons, is a lock for a steady 0.80 points per game, will get you 25 power play points and at least 2 shots per game. That is stable and solid production but perhaps not keeper worthy in your league.

Brayden Point

After consecutive seasons of 95, 90, and 82 points, Point fell off a cliff to 50 points. He did play fewer games (63), but his points per game did take a hit down to 0.79, whereas he was consistently above a point per game before. Three areas damaged Point's production. The first was his shot volume which dropped to 2.0/game. The second was the power play, where he was regularly scoring 30+ points, but fell to 11 last year. The third was in the shooting percentage department. His last four seasons demonstrate this well: 21.7%, 20.2%, 22.3% and then a drop to 14%. For most players a shooting percentage above 20% is outlandish, but for the highly efficient close-range shooter in Point, it is the norm. His career average is 18.4%. On the power play, his IPP dropped to 35.5. Compare to the previous three seasons where Point's PPIPP was 53.6, 56.1, and 64.6. On the man advantage, Tampa Bay was still scoring with Point on the ice, but he was just not one of the last three players to touch the puck before the puck crossed the line. With the PPIPP, the shooting percentage, and the shot volume adjusted up, Point should see a bounce back to his regular production. Do not be afraid of using a keeper spot on Point.

Sidney Crosby

Crosby has a career average of 1.22 points per game and has never fallen below the point per game benchmark in any season of his 19-year career. He has been a lock for a keeper spot in virtually any type of league, and it would be unfathomable to insinuate that he is no longer keeper worthy. However, that is exactly what I will entertain here. Now 39 years old and approaching the twilight of his career, we must remember that Father Time is undefeated. Last season's 1.09 is his lowest points per game in the last eight years and his 18.8% shooting percentage was the highest in his last 15 seasons. If he shot his career average last year, he would have finished at a flat 1.00 points per game. Remember the Penguins had the second highest 5v5 shooting percentage (11.12%), so their offense is primed to regress. Crosby's own 5v5 shooting percentage was 12%, the highest it has been in the last 13 years. On the Penguins last year, only Anthony Mantha had a higher goals scored above expected than Crosby (+7.6). With drops incoming on goal scoring from Crosby and his linemates, we might witness history: a sub-1.00 points per game Crosby. His playoff heroics have already taken a downturn with 21 points in his last 26 post-season games (0.81 ppg). Due to positional abundance and age, a 39-year-old point per game center may not make the keeper cut-off in some shallow formats despite the name recognition of this future first ballot Hall of Famer. When the music stops, don't be left holding the bag.

Player data from Frozen Tools. Advanced stats from Money Puck.

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