Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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DobberHockey’s 2026-27 Fantasy Hockey Guide is now available in the Dobber Shop! Team-by-team overviews updated through to the start of the regular season to reflect injuries, trades, or other pertinent information.

The French version, le Guide des Poolers, is also available. You can pre-order it here. 

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1. Over my last several Ramblings, we have been going over my personal fantasy hockey projections to find good draft values. We started by looking towards shallower formats, focusing on forwards whose projected value outstrips their Fantrax ADP before moving onto defencemen. We then looked at forwards providing good draft value in deeper formats before evaluating defencemen in the same kinds of leagues.

Today, we’re going to be agnostic about position and look at this year’s crop of rookies. There are a slew of very intriguing names that will be drafted in every kind of fantasy format, so we need to see just how realistic their ADPs are.

As a reminder, my projections assume 84 games played for all players, and their fantasy value is relative to a replacement-level player at their position. For the projections, replacement level means the 132^nd-ranked forward and the 60^th defenceman last season, or the top of the waiver pile in 12-team leagues.

In the following graphs, the red vertical line represents the cutoff for a player’s rank at their position in my projections compared to their Fantrax rank, and the red horizontal line is the cutoff for replacement level value above/below a player at their position. The fantasy categories are goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points, and data for my projections are from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools.

Below each name are ‘My Rank’ and ‘Fantrax Rank’. My Rank means where I have that player ranked at their position, and Fantrax Rank is where they land at their position on Fantrax.

Before digging into the players, a quick note on rookies.

It is very hard for a first-year player to have a lot of fantasy value. In this format, Macklin Celebrini – who looks every bit the part of a generational player – was a fringe top 60 forward in his rookie season. He only played 70 games, but even if he played 80, he would have finished as a top 25 forward (and if everyone ahead of him plays 80 games, he drops further). Lane Hutson‘s rookie season saw him finish as the 12^th overall defenceman, and he was about 15% worse than the 8^th overall defenceman. Those two have quickly ended up among the best at their position regardless of age, and neither was an elite fantasy producer as a rookie. If a rookie can finish as a top 50 forward or top 20 defenceman, that is a very impressive rookie campaign. Keep that in mind when considering just how good a first-year player can be.

2. Anton Frondell (Chicago Blackhawks – F)

My Rank: 42
Fantrax Rank: 115

There are two rookies I think are very much worth drafting this season when considering their ADPs, and Frondell is the first. He was excellent in his brief stint at the end of the 2025-26 campaign and looks like a future superstar in the league. Not only does he present a tremendous draft value, but he also brings a high rate of fantasy production overall:

The curious part of my projections is that they aren’t overly high on his point production with 22 goals and 35 assists. However, he is projected for 220 shots, 67 blocks, and 20 power-play points. All that additional production outside of just goals and assists is where his rating comes from. In fact, his value from shots, blocks, and power-play points comprise about 87% of his fantasy value overall. That should give fantasy managers an idea of what he can do if his point production exceeds my expectations. (For posterity, the Dobber Fantasy Guide is much higher on Frondell’s production with 65 points in 82 games. That is an 84-game pace 10 points higher than my projection.)

Power-play production is key here, but with Connor Bedard missing the first month of the season (give or take), Frondell has a chance to lock down a top PP spot early and hang onto it. Even if his fantasy value is half of what I project, he still lands as a top 90 forward, and a good draft value. This is definitely one of the rookies to target. (sept11)

3. Porter Martone (Philadelphia Flyers – F)

My Rank: 75
Fantrax Rank: 51

There are two things true about Martone: Given what we saw at the end of the regular season and into the playoffs, he looks like a future multi-category monster. The other is that he’s probably being overvalued right now, which is what puts him on the outside of my list of draft-able rookies:

Martone is expected to provide a lot of hits, which is great. However, hit rates are one of the peripheral areas that have been rising among forwards over the last couple of seasons, so providing triple-digit hits doesn’t have the impact it would have had 3-4 years ago. That he had just six blocks in 19 NHL games is not good for his fantasy outlook because blocks are a peripheral that have been declining across the league. Being able to provide even a half-block per game is a solid rate, but a block every three games (or worse) is not. Martone’s negative value in blocks is about double his positive value from hits, which hurts.

That also provides an avenue to fantasy success. If Martone can put up even 50 blocks, he becomes a good draft value. It isn’t that he can’t pay off his ADP, it’s just that there is one area where he is expected to lag greatly and if that doesn’t improve, he’s probably overvalued.

On the flipside, if a fantasy manager locks down the block column early, Martone’s negative value in that area doesn’t mean nearly as much, and then he probably becomes a fine draft pick at his ADP. (sept11)

4. Gavin McKenna (Toronto Maple Leafs – F)

My Rank: 105
Fantrax Rank: 80

McKenna is expected to be productive – my projections have him pushing for 25 goals and 60 points – but there isn’t much here for hits and blocks. If he could just break even in those two peripherals, he’d climb to a rank of a top 80 forward, and right in line with his Fantrax ADP. But he’s not projected to break even in either, and it gives him a negative draft value:

Here is the issue with being such a drag in hits and blocks. I have McKenna projected for a little under 25 goals and 35 assists. If he produces 30 goals and 40 assists, which is more productive than any rookie in the last five years, he winds up as the 80^th forward on my board, or right in line with his Fantrax Rank. The question is: Can McKenna produce goals and assists at a rate higher than Celebrini’s rookie year? If yes, then he’s draft-able. If no, then he’s not. Answer that question for yourself, but for me, I would rather draft more proven young wingers like Beckett Sennecke or William Eklund. (sept11)

5. Ivar Stenberg (San Jose Sharks – F)

My Rank: 140
Fantrax Rank: 110

Stenberg’s projection makes me nervous. He comes out with 19 goals and 35 assists, which again, would be an excellent rookie year. However, it’s not enough to make him a positive draft value. With that said, what if he skates next to Celebrini at 5-on-5 and on the power play all year? My projections assume he spends about 25% of his 5-on-5 time next to Celebrini, but what if that’s 40%? Or 60%? We have seen Celebrini elevate guys like Will Smith and William Eklund. He can very well do the same for Stenberg.

However, that isn’t what my projections tell me; they tell me Stenberg is overvalued:

Personally, I am extremely high on Stenberg’s future. Anything can happen, but I would be surprised if he’s not a genuine superstar five years hence. And we do have to keep in mind he’s an older rookie, turning 19 years old before the end of September. If his goal total lands in the low 20s, and his power-play points in the mid-teens, his rank in my projections falls right in line with his ADP. It isn’t hard to imagine Stenberg out-performing his ADP, but even if he does, I don’t think he becomes a league-winning draft pick. (sept11)

6. Cole Hutson (Washington Capitals – D)

My Rank: 19
Fantrax Rank: 30

The second rookie that I have interest in drafting is the younger Hutson brother. He looked great at the end of the 2025-26 season with 10 points in 14 games, and if we add that to his pedigree and opportunity, he comes out with a lot of positive draft value:

The key to all of this is the power play. After arriving in Washington, he and Jakob Chychrun basically split the power play time. However, the Capitals’ power play hasn’t been great with Chychrun running things, and the assumption is that Hutson will eventually be the locked top PP option, even if it takes a couple months. That is pushing his projection past 20 power-play points, which is a big source of his fantasy value. If things go wrong and Chychrun is the locked top PP guy, that equation changes dramatically.

Overall, though, the question is whether Hutson can outperform his ADP, and I believe he can. It is a risk, because even if you draft him around the 25^th blue liner, you may be foregoing proven options like Mikhail Sergachev and Shayne Gostisbehere. However, that Hutson is providing such good draft value means he’s a player I want as my third defenceman in 12-team leagues, and it makes him worth the risk. Maybe things go wrong and he doesn’t live up to his ADP. Then again, what if he’s the second coming of his older brother? (sept11)

7. One final note here (regarding rookie ADPs): If I had to bet on a rookie I haven’t listed to provide good draft value, it’s Roman Kantserov. A lot comes down to whether he can earn a meaningful power-play role, and I’m skeptical he will once Bedard returns. However, if all goes right, he could very well skate a top 6 and top PP role for most of the season, and that’s valuable. I would way rather draft Frondell, but Kantserov is not a bad consolation prize as a bench option in 12-team leagues. (sept11)

8. The Detroit Red Wings and Dylan Larkin released a joint statement on Friday announcing that Larkin will report to training camp next week, but he will no longer serve as the team’s captain. The Red Wings also addressed Larkin’s trade request by saying they will deal with his situation once a new GM is hired.

The Red Wings have been searching for a new GM since mid-July, when Steve Yzerman announced that he would step down once a successor is found. On one hand, it seems like the Wings should be expediting this hire a bit more to deal with what could turn into a negative situation inside the dressing room. However, Larkin is also under contract, and the Wings are under no obligation to trade him just to get it out of the way. Either way, the Red Wings seem like a team to fade in your fantasy drafts. Larkin is still worth drafting in nearly all formats, and his value could even improve with a move to a better team. (sept12)

9. The Los Angeles Kings announced that winger Kevin Fiala underwent another surgery related to the initial surgery for the broken femur he suffered back in February at the Olympics. He is going to start the beginning of training camp, but there is no word on the recent procedure or when he’ll return.

For fantasy purposes, Fiala was already fighting an uphill battle. The Kings traded for Artemi Panarin last season, added Mats Zuccarello in the offseason, and Adrian Kempe is still a top-ling winger. Los Angeles’s season starts in 19 days. Fiala is returning from a very serious injury and has presumably had some sort of setback. We don’t know when he’ll be back, and even when he does return, he may not have a big offensive role. At this point, it’s hard to draft him as a top-200 player. Knowing what we know now would you rather have Fiala, or someone with a Fantrax ADP around 200 like Artturi Lehkonen or Logan Stankoven? (sept11)

10. It was reported by Elliotte Friedman that the Anaheim Ducks and winger Chris Kreider have reached an agreement for him to be put on waivers and have his contract terminated. In effect, this would make Kreider a free agent and hopefully give the Ducks the cap space necessary to sign Cutter Gauthier.

We will have to see where Kreider lands, but this helps clear up Anaheim’s power play situation a bit. Troy Terry won’t return until well into the season, so the potential PP forwards are down to Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke, and Mikael Granlund. There is the potential for someone like Alex Killorn or Frank Vatrano to make an appearance, but until Terry returns it seems likely those four names are the four options for the top PP unit. It is good news for both Gauthier and Sennecke. (sept10)

11. Fraser Minten signed a seven-year deal with a $7.2 Million cap hit yesterday, which feels like it was a bit of a surprise, but considering the recent growth in salaries it might end up looking like a smart bet by Boston. Last year the number might have been a five-year deal at $5 Million per year. Minten appears to be trending to becoming a middle-six centre, with plenty of room to grow as a 22-year-old with only 100 career games under his belt. If he can take a small step forward this year by driving play at a 50% rate compared to the 48% GF rate that he posted last year, it should also translate into his first 40-point season, which would provide a perfect stepping stone for his breakout threshold season the following year, putting him into the 55-point range while also bringing a lot of grit to the table. 

From a fantasy angle, Minten put up 142 Hits in an 82-game season last year, playing a bit over 15 minutes per game. If the ice time ticks up a little, and if he ends up playing a bit more in the defensive zone, those hit numbers could touch two per game. On top of that, Minten has a history of high shot rates, with nearly three per game in the AHL in his only season there. As he adjusts more to the NHL pace, that number should creep up from last season’s 1.4 per game to a more fantasy relevant number around 2.0. The plus-21 rating, 51 Blks, and 400 FOWs are nice bonuses too for leagues with those categories. (sept9)

12. There have been some other noteworthy tidbits out recently on contract extensions and retirements:

– Quinn Hughes has not yet made up his mind about extending with the Wild. It might be mid-season by the time this gets sorted out, which might force the Wild into a trade. 

– Sidney Crosby is discussing an extension with the Penguins, but is uncertain about how much longer he wants to play. Status quo here, and it would be surprising to see Sid take anything other than a one or two year deal at $8.7M. However, the Penguins have a lot of cap space next year and most of the roster accounted for. Does Crosby get a one year deal for $18.7 Million? He has certainly earned it. 

– Drake Batherson would like to have an extension settled before the start of the season. This I would expect to carry an eight-digit cap hit on a long term deal. 

– This note isn’t fantasy relevant unless you’re in a league that rosters just about every NHL player, but if that is you then Pierre-Olivier Joseph might be someone to put on your watch list. When one-way deals are signed for fringe NHLers, especially to a team like the Carolina Hurricanes, who are notably both experts at evaluating Dmen and a bit more conservative when it comes to spending, then fantasy managers had best pay attention. This feels like a seventh defenceman that has some puck moving ability, but won’t have a regular slot in the lineup unless injuries hit. The good news for POJ and his owners is that Alexander Nikishin is still without a contract. (sept9)

– Elsewhere, John Klingberg announced his retirement on Friday. Klingberg finished the 2025-26 season with 27 points in 56 games for the Sharks. He should be remembered the most as a high-scoring defenseman for Dallas, which is where he recorded a career high of 67 points in 2017-18. Unfortunately, he had been dealing with chronic hip issues and surgeries the past few seasons. All the best to him in retirement.

– Connor Ingram has also decided to retire, making the announcement via his Instagram account late Friday. After a solid season with the Oilers (32 GP, 2.60 GAA, .899 SV%), the 29-year-old Ingram did not sign anywhere during the offseason. Ingram appeared in 134 career NHL games for Nashville, Arizona, Utah, and Edmonton. Ingram, who won the Masterton Trophy in 2024, has stated that his goal is to return to school for psychology. All the best to him as well in his future endeavors. (sept12)

13. With the Offseason Fantasy Grades wrapped up last week, I thought I would run through a couple of the teams who I am finding that I am ending up with multiple players from on my many mock drafts on different websites. 

Some fantasy GMs like to have a stack because getting hot at the right time is how you make up ground in the standings or bury your opponent in a weekly matchup, while some don’t want more than two or three players from the same team because if one line goes cold it can tank your chances for a month. For me, it’s all about the balance, because if you own the better players, you win more often regardless of team. That being said, before the season starts, the team perception can be depressed, leading to some overall bargains for a group of players who individually should be a bit more sought-after. 

Typically, this happens with the non-playoff teams who rebound or grow into a more dominant offensive team, but it can also happen due to player personnel changes or other adjustments. If you get in with enough of a rising team early in the season though, it can provide a huge amount of value to carry you through the season. 

Here are four teams I’m looking at right now for some early season riser value:

Carolina Hurricanes

It’s hard to be underestimated as a Stanley Cup Championships, but with the Hurricanes not having the big star power of some other top teams, in addition to the injury to Seth Jarvis, the questions in net, and the continued negotiations with RFA Alexander Nikishin, there is some uncertainty with the group. 

However, what seems to be overlooked here is just how much stability and consistency the Canes have had over the last number of seasons. The Canes have always had a very stable fantasy value base, which has added Nikolaj Ehlers, Nikishin, and a few others players which has really lifted the depth. Shayne Gostisbehere just put up nearly a point per game, which is flying under the radar as well, and they still have multiple prospects pushing for ice time like Bradly Nadeau and maybe Felix Unger Sorum. 

All of this does cause some confusion in terms of who to target, but to me it means that the solid core group of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, and Gostisbehere is being undervalued, as well as that core insulating the breakout of Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven. From all of those names mentioned, on top of possibly taking a flyer on one of the goalies to be a 30+ win option in 55 games, and the option of stashing Seth Jarvis, there are plenty of value Hurricanes to be found, which leads me to believe that come draft time I will have a few on my squad. (sept9)

14. Florida Panthers

I own Aleksander Barkov in a couple of leagues already, and have noted my interest in Seth Jones a few times over the last month. On top of that, I have an early pick in one league which will likely end up being on a top Panthers player based on the players expected to be chosen in front of me. 

This team was not supposed to be a bottom-five team last year, and if it wasn’t for injuries, they likely would have been in the playoffs – possibly even contending for another appearance in the Final. The top six is going to be excellent, with four players who could bring top-25 value in fantasy leagues, and some excellent depth to back it up. Brady Tkachuk should get a boost from the team around him, though will be capped because he’s not the main offensive focal point anymore. Matthew Tkachuk and Barkov should be back to their usual high levels, now that they’re fully healthy and had the offseason to train – though for Barkov don’t be expecting his career peak of 100-points. It is much more likely that he jumps back in around a point per game, which is where we saw him slide down to most recently. The return of Barkov especially should also float Sam Reinhart‘s numbers back up, after a down year last season as he also struggled with lingering injuries. Jacob Markstrom will either thrive or be replaced by December, while the depth forwards all the way down to line three should be relevant in standard leagues as well. Lots to like here, though the biggest bargains I’m seeing are on those top-end players here. Drafting a couple panthers early and then focusing on the other three teams here in the middle rounds could win you a lot of matchups this season. (sept9)

15. New Jersey Devils

Two of the most unlucky players in the league last season were Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt. Big bounce backs from them would improve the outlook for the whole lineup. They themselves represent two of the best bargains on draft day, but on top of that you have the addition and growth of Luke Evangelista, the impending breakout from Luke Hughes, the addition of the resurgent Anthony Mantha, and the mantle ready to be claimed by Nico Daws as the starting goalie. On top of that, the Dougie Hamilton decline has already been factored into his ADP, which means that if he doesn’t fall off then you can get a bargain in a trade or on draft day. The Devils should be back in the playoff hunt next year, though that will likely depend on the health of Jack Hughes and how the goaltending holds up. (sept9)

16. New York Rangers

The Rangers don’t have playoff level depth players, but the top end of the lineup certainly has some fantasy relevance, between Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox, J.T. Miller, and Mika Zibanejad. The Vincent Trocheck trade means the FOW numbers for Miller and Zib should both tick up, but it also opens a spot in the top-six that wasn’t there last year. Alexis Lafreniere and new $11 Million man Pavel Dorofeyev will make up two of the top-six wingers, but between Gabe Perreault, Eeli Tolvanen, Will Cuylle, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, you have a couple of players who are going to be fed offensive zone time with a skilled centre despite going very late in drafts. The problem is you have to manage to pick the right ones… 

Odds are that Perreault would be put in a position to thrive offensively, so he is a bit of a better bet to provide some points. Tolvanen and Cuylle both bring peripherals as well, so you can more safely pick them and at least have a floor of contribution that they will provide. Bjorkstrand might be the least likely to float into the top-six regularly, but he has some offensive pop to watch too. 

Overall, it feels like the top Rangers players are all a little further down the draft boards than they should be, and while their goal differential may not do managers any favours, a healthy Shesterkin and some top offensive players may keep them in a lot more close games than last season (leading to a lot more wins). They could be a sneaky team in the playoff race this year too. (sept9)

17. Value picks from every team in the Metropolitan Division: 

Carolina Hurricanes – Logan Stankoven

Logan Stankoven is a player I keep coming back to when looking at Carolina’s potential value options. He may not have put up huge regular-season numbers last year, finishing with 21 goals and 44 points in 82 games, but what he did in the playoffs caught everyone’s attention. He led the Hurricanes with 11 goals in 19 playoff games and became one of their most dangerous offensive players. That playoff performance gives us a pretty good indication of what could be coming. He has already shown he can finish, create chances and play a physical game despite his smaller frame. More importantly, he showed chemistry with Jackson Blake and Taylor Hall, giving Carolina another potential offensive combination beyond the obvious top names.

Columbus Blue Jackets – Kent Johnson

Johnson’s campaign last season was, simply put, disappointing, finishing with just seven goals and 22 points in 76 games. He also shot a career-low 5.6%, a significant drop from the 15%+ shooting percentage he had maintained prior to last season. We should see some positive regression there, but the bigger question is where Johnson fits within Columbus’ lineup. The acquisition of Valeri Nichushkin doesn’t help his path to the top unit, which makes a second-line role for Johnson more likely. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The opportunity will come down to how Rick Bowness deploys him and how much ice time Johnson receives. After seeing his usage drop significantly last season, getting back to a larger role could go a long way towards his production.

New Jersey Devils – Luke Evangelista

This one may not be as obvious simply because the deal was recently completed, but Evangelista is now a Devil, and his fantasy situation looks completely different from what it was in Nashville. He finished last season with 12 goals, 44 assists and 56 points in 81 games, including 16 power-play assists, and now moves to a Devils team that could give him another opportunity to build on that production. New Jersey already has plenty of offensive talent throughout their lineup, but Evangelista adds another playmaking element to the group. The biggest potential boost could come at even strength, especially if he finds himself alongside Jack Hughes. If that happens, I could see an increase on his ice-time that would give him more opportunities to build on his 56-point season. If me makes his way to the top powerplay unit, well, that would only increase his upside and fantasy value.

New York Islanders – Calum Ritchie

Calum Ritchie for the Islanders he fits the type of player I’m looking for when searching for value picks. He’s entering just his second full season with the Islanders after putting up 13 goals and 30 points in 65 games as a rookie, and there’s a good chance his fantasy value takes another step forward with increased responsibility. Ritchie has a chance to establish himself as a second-liner while also potentially seeing time on the first power-play unit. More even-strength minutes should give him a better opportunity to build on his rookie production, while first-unit power-play time could provide the biggest boost in production. The Islanders are still trying to figure out exactly what their next version of the roster looks like with aging vets in Brayden Shenn and Kyle Palmeri occupying top line roles. He doesn’t need to suddenly become a star to provide value. If he locks down a consistent top-six role and holds onto premium power-play usage, the increase in opportunity alone could push his production into another tier.

18. New York Rangers – Alexis Lafreniere

I feel like I’ve written this more than once, but here we go again. I had Gabe Perreault at the top of my list, but I decided to go with Lafrenière instead. At some point, we have to see that next step from Lafrenière, and if this isn’t the year, I’m not sure when it will be. The biggest change is the opportunity in front of him. Artemi Panarin is gone, and Lafrenière should finally have a much larger role, particularly on the power play. His PPTOI increased by nearly a minute last season, and he was already seeing substantial minutes alongside Panarin and Mika Zibanejad at even strength. The difference now is that there is a much clearer path to becoming one of the focal points of the Rangers’ offense. Lafrenière still hasn’t established himself as a true star, which means most GMs aren’t going to be targeting him on draft day the way they would Pavel Dorofeyev, Mika Zibanejad Adam Fox, Igor Shesterkin or even J.T. Miller. The opportunity is finally there for Lafrenière to become a much bigger part of this offense. Whether he can actually take advantage of it remains to be seen, but this is probably as good a chance as he has had.

Philadelphia Flyers – Matvei Michkov

Michkov’s sophomore season didn’t quite live up to the expectations created by his rookie campaign of 63 points in 80 games as a rookie to then drop to 20 goals and 51 points in 81 games last season. That decline could push him down draft boards with the excitement of Porter Martone stealing his limelight. However, Michkov had 22 points in his final 26 games after the Olympic break, including seven goals and 15 assists. His shooting percentage stayed relatively consistent as well, dropping slightly from 13.1% to 12.3%, however it was his overall usage that dropped. His power-play ice time declined from 2:48 per game to 2:11, while his overall ice time fell from 16:41 to 14:50. We already know what Michkov can do when given the opportunity. If Rick Tocchet increases his responsibility, there’s a good chance we see an increase in Michkov’s numbers.

Pittsburgh Penguins – Egor Chinakhov    

Chinakhov's move to Pittsburgh last season completely changed his fantasy outlook. After being acquired from Columbus, Chinakhov exploded offensively, recording 36 points in just 43 games with the Penguins. The split is what really stands out. He had just three goals and six points in 29 games with Columbus before exploding for 30 points in his first 43 games with Pittsburgh. He finished the season with career highs of 21 goals, 21 assists and 42 points. He now gets a full season in Pittsburgh rather than having to adjust on the fly after a midseason trade. Although an aging core, the Penguins have enough established offensive talent which should give Chinakhov opportunities to continue building on his game.

Washington Capitals – Dylan Strome

There are actually a few players on this team who could have been selected, including Jordan Kyrou and even Ryan Leonard, but Dylan Strome is another player who could provide some sneaky value after taking a step back last season. He came back down-to-earth last season, posting 58 points in 80 games from a point per game pace the year before. We know the 82-point season was likely an outlier, but if he can get back closer to the 67-point range he produced in 2023-24, there is a good chance he outperforms his draft position. The Capitals have also added more offensive talent this offseason with Jordan Kyrou, Alex Tuch and Boone Jenner. At this point the lineups are all projections with the Capitals squad, but adding better offensive players throughout the lineup should create more opportunities for everyone. (sept9)

19. As a follow up to Bubble Keeper Week, I have been restocking my team with free agents after my keeper deadline. My team entered the slow auction mostly filled, so I was not able to add any top-tier free agents due to minimal cap space with the need to fill roster spots on top of that.

Despite the limits on my transactions, I am making a series of bets on certain players, which I’ll share with you. These are mostly smaller bets, as I need to focus on quantity more than quality this season. On top of that, I need injury replacements for all of Connor Bedard, Brad Marchand, and Kevin Fiala, as all could miss the start of the season. I could be my league’s version of the Florida Panthers this season, as I’m already dealing with a rash of injuries after winning my league title last season.

That all being said, one particular player is clearly my most important add. His success or failure could shape my team for many years to come. I’ll start off with that player.

Adam Fantilli will take another step forward

In my dynasty league, center was the one position that I needed to upgrade the most. I had one maximum contract that I could use, and I identified four young available centers as targets for my long-term deal. Ranked in order, they were Wyatt Johnston, Fantilli, Will Smith (C-eligible in Fantrax), and Quinton Byfield.

With this being an auction league, Johnston and Smith went well over my tight budget quickly. Fantilli fit in perfectly, with his final price exactly one penny over what I had budgeted to acquire a center. Byfield turned out to be over my budget as well, although that happened after I won Fantilli. In the end, I received the player I wanted, although I know I am taking a risk by paying for future production instead of past production. Think of it as like Zeev Buium‘s real-life contract with Vancouver.

Here are some reasons that you should target Fantilli:

• He finished the 2025-26 season with 29 points in 32 games
• He is turning 22 in October and on his breakout threshold (213 career games)
• A 2-minute-per-game increase in icetime from the first quarter (17:24) to the fourth quarter (19:30) in 2025-26

One minor detail: Fantilli is still an unsigned RFA. If you’re drafting him as a sleeper, keep that in mind in case his contract situation drags into training camp or even into the regular season. 

[Follow the link for more…] (sept12)

20. In a pair of Ramblings last week, the review of my personal fantasy hockey projections began. We started with forwards before moving onto defencemen. Today, we’ll be going back to our forwards but looking for deeper values using ADP data from Fantrax.

My projections are made using ‘replacement level’ value, which is determined to be the approximate fantasy value of the 132^nd forward drafted in a 12-team league. I have yet to include rookies in my projections, but I am assuming at least four rookie forwards – Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Porter Martone, and Anton Frondell – will be drafted in 12-team formats. Let’s add a few players that might be surprises, round up, and say we’re looking at forwards whose Fantrax ADP is outside the top 140 forwards.

Data for my projections are from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools. The projections are using ‘z-score’ for evaluations, which is simply how far above or below a player’s fantasy value is compared to the ‘replacement level’ value. The fantasy categories are goals, assists, shots, hits, blocks, and power-play points.

In the following graphs, the red line for ADP is the cutoff for the top 250 overall by ADP, which includes the top 140 forwards, and the red line for z-score is zero. Anyone to the right of the ADP line and above the Zscore line is a good late draft value.

Shane Pinto (Ottawa Senators)

My Rank: 94
Fantrax Rank: 148

It seems simple enough, but ice time is a major component of fantasy value. Players who don’t get very much won’t produce very much, outside of the guys that play 12 minutes a night but put up 200 hits. For point production, guys skating 12 minutes a night just aren’t relevant outside the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Last year, Pinto skated 14:38 per game at even strength, had a little under 2 minutes per game in PPTOI, and a little over 2 minutes per game in PKTOI. There isn’t reason to think he’ll lose any significant ice time in 2026-27, so skating 18-19 minutes a game is valuable in and of itself, and makes Pinto one of the better draft values:

A key factor in Pinto’s fantasy value is that he has positive contributions in five of the six categories, and the one with a negative contribution (assists) isn’t a huge drag. In the right role, Pinto can be a 30-goal, 65-point player, and that would make him a draft-value monster. Even in his current role, he provides good value. 

[Follow the link for more…] (sept8)

21. In Tuesday’s Ramblings above, I discussed some forwards my personal projections have as good fantasy value targets based on ADP data from Fantrax. Today, we’ll keep looking for deep targets but instead focus on defencemen. For a cutoff, we’ll consider only defencemen whose ADP falls outside the top 60 blue liners, which would mean they aren’t rostered in most 12-team leagues.

As a reminder, my projections are based on players skating 84 games, and they are based on the replacement level value for their position. ‘Replacement level’ is determined to be roughly the value of each stat of the 60^th overall fantasy defenceman last season, or the top of the waiver pile in a 12-team league.

The stats used are goals, assists, shots, blocks, hits, and power-play points. Data for the projections comes from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools.

In the following graphs, the red lines represent the cut-off mark needed for a player to qualify by their fantasy value and by their Fantrax ADP. The yellow dots are the defencemen who qualify, and the blue dots are those that don’t. While we are using ADP data for comparison purposes, we will use ‘Fantrax Rank’ to determine where each defenceman ranks among all blue liners by their ADP. So, Cale Makar would have a Fantrax Rank of 1, Zach Werenski has a Fantrax Rank of 2, and so on.

Neal Pionk (Winnipeg Jets)

My Rank: 31
Fantrax ADP: 63

Last season, Pionk played just 51 games. If we pro-rate what he did on a per-game basis to a 75-game season, he lands inside the top 35 blue liners. If he plays 80 games, he lands inside the top 30. That kind of production is what leads to him being at the top of our list for overall fantasy value among deeper targets:

A huge reason for Pionk’s value isn’t just that he can contribute across the board, it’s that his hit volume has stayed fairly consistent; his rate of hits per 60 minutes last season was down less than 8% from the prior two seasons. Comparatively, the league rate of hits from defencemen has dropped more than double the rate of Pionk. Being able to produce so many hits when the rest of the league is falling helps Pionk’s value tremendously, and that he can provide 30 points, 140 shots, and triple-digit blocks rounds out his profile well.   

[Follow the link for more…] (sept10)

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