The countdown to the top of the Metropolitan division started with the non-playoff teams that were discussed in Part 1. The final predictions for the rest of the division standings are revealed here. There are still roster shake ups possible as star players like Quinn Hughes and Connor Hellebuyck have been rumoured to go to some of the Metropolitan destinations discussed in today's article.

4 – Columbus Blue Jackets

Jet Greaves (0.908% and 2.60 GAA) got two-thirds of the games last year and played significantly better than Elvis Merzlikins (0.883% and 3.40 GAA). Merzļikins starts this season on the injured reserve, so the goaltending will be better with Greaves getting a larger chunk of starts. Greaves had comparable 5v5 numbers to Metropolitan crease confreres Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin, with all three goalies posting similar save percentage, GAA, and high danger save percentage numbers.

Offensively the Blue Jackets were near the bottom (27^th) in team shooting percentage (10.2%), and near the top of the league in save percentage, which balanced out their PDO to middle of the pack. Boone Jenner and Mason Marchment are gone, but Valeri Nichushkin arrives as a cap casualty of the Colorado Avalanche. Only the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche had more high danger shots at 5v5 than the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The elephant in the room is the potential exodus of elite talent in Kirill Marchenko and Zach Werenski. Adam Fantilli has yet to sign; his contract will eat up all of the remaining cap space that GM Don Waddell has to work with. The new CBA kicks in tomorrow, which will limit the maximum term to seven years, instead of eight, for extending the team's own player. The eight years might not be relevant for Fantilli as young stars around the league have been signing shorter deals (Connor Bedard, Macklin Celebrini, and Leo Carlsson all signed for five years). Merzļikins can be placed on LTIR for short-term relief.

The referees weren't kind to Columbus only granting them 4:06 of power play time, tied for the lowest in the league. Special teams at the other end was lacklustre as the Blue Jackets finished 28^th in the penalty kill (76.0%). Columbus was the only team with a zero goal differential (253 goals for and 253 goals against). This year, with more games from Greaves, a better team shooting percentage, and an improved penalty kill, they climb into positive goal differential territory getting close to a playoff spot.

3 – New Jersey Devils

Had the New Jersey Devils been able to sustain a league average shooting percentage (the 16^th and 17^th place teams in the NHL shot at 11.1%), they would have added 44 goals and ended with the fourth best goal differential in the Eastern conference. If you are looking for which skaters suffered the most from misfortune, click here for some player breakdowns.

In his first off-season, General Manager Sunny Mehta has been on a mission, adding wingers Luke Evangelista, Anthony Mantha, and Jesper Boqvist. Evangelista led the Nashville Predators in on ice shot attempt percentage (Corsi) at 61%, and in relative expected goals percentage (15%). The latter meant that with Evangelista on the ice, the Predators expected goals of 58.8% was significantly better than when Evangelista was not on the ice (43.8%). On Nashville, he also had the lowest goals scored above expected (-7.4), which fits in with his new team as the Devils more had the lowest goals for above expected (-35.2) amongst all NHL teams.

Nico Hischier won the most faceoffs by a wide margin with 1008, or 169 more than second-place Jordan Staal. Hischier also led the league in faceoffs lost, indicating he ate and slept in the faceoff circle. Jack Hughes (4th) and Timo Meier (7th) were amongst the league leaders in shots/game at 5v5. Anthony Mantha had the highest 5v5 shooting percentage in the Metropolitan (22.3%). New Jersey's league low 7.22% shooting percentage at 5v5 will rebound, resulting in additional offensive output, and catapulting them into the playoffs.

2 – Washington Capitals

The team with the highest goal differential (+19) not to make the playoffs, the Washington Capitals now have one of the deepest sets of wingers in the Eastern conference. Even at this age, Alex Ovechkin shoots at an elite pace on the power play: 1.0 shots/game for each of the last two years. However, his production fell from 14 power play goals in 2024-25 to just five in 2025-26. The reason was his power play shooting percentage at 5v4 fell from 16.7% in 2024-25 to 5% in 2025-26. To emphasize the point: Ovechkin's power play shooting percentage was the same as Jesperi Kotkaniemi's even strength shooting percentage. As I mentioned in the Eastern Conference article, a single digit shooting percentage on the power play is only acceptable for defensemen.

Washington will collect more goals with the man advantage as they had the fifth lowest team shooting percentage on the power play (12.11%). At one point in early March, the Capitals power play conversion was second last in the league at 15.5%. They recovered to 17.8% (25^th in the league) by season's end, but they are used to higher standards having been above 20% for the previous three seasons.

New addition Jordan Kyrou will help improve zone entries. At 5v5, Ovechkin and Dylan Strome were first and second in the league in percent of shifts started in the offensive zone. On the back end, Jakob Chychrun led the division in 5v5 goal differential (+36). Washington's 0.903% team save percentage was tied for fifth best in the league. Logan Thompson led the league with a +29.3 GSAx. The year before he was third (+26.0 GSAx). If he continues his strong play, the Capitals should rise in the standings with an improved offense.

1 – Carolina Hurricanes

No surprise at the top spot. The Hurricanes continued their possession dominance by posting the highest shot differential per game (8.4). It wasn't just shots from far to raise the tally. The Canes were tops in the league in high danger shots (328), third in medium danger shots (767), and second in low danger shots (3072). Andrei Svechnikov led the league in on-ice shot attempts per 60. Opposing goalies were busy being peppered from all over the ice.

The supremacy also extended to time on ice, where the Hurricanes led the league in lowest percentage of time spent in their defensive zone (35.5%) and highest percentage of time spent in the offensive zone (45.5%). Due to the extensive puck control, the team only blocked 1001 shots collectively, the lowest in the league.

Seth Jarvis will miss the start of the season as he recovers from right shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff. His timeline is 4-6 months after a late June surgery, which schedules a return in November or December. Who will fill his spot? Let us ask GM Eric Tulsky, who said, “there’s a very real chance that we end up with sort of an open spot in our lineup for a month or two for a young player to step in and get an opportunity to show what he can do.”

Another major improvement was the power play where Carolina finished 4^th (24.9%), up from 25^th (18.7%) the year before. The goalies were stellar in the shootout boasting the league's fourth best save percentage (0.828%). Some of these numbers will come down, but the Canes should easily grab top spot in the division again, despite not making any significant offseason changes.

Player data from Frozen Tools. Advanced stats from Money Puck and Natural Stat Trick. Zone time percentage courtesy of NHL EDGE stats.

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