In today's article, we will look at skaters that are struggling, as well as skaters that have started hot, and try to determine if which will regress to the norm or not. This will hopefully help elucidate some buy-low and sell-high candidates.

Pete DeBoer is giving Kyle Palmieri a career high 75.5% of the New York Islanders' power play time, but he has scaled back his overall ice time to 16:22 (18:53 last year). Palmieri only has four points in 11 games to show for it. He is a buy-low candidate primarily because of his IPP which is unusually low at 33.3%; he is typically much more involved in the scoring, ranging from 60-75% IPP in his prior three seasons. Palmieri has also not figured into the power play scoring where his PPIPP sits at 0% (55-60% in the last three seasons). Both these numbers should rise as the season progresses.  Furthermore, he only has one assist (primary) in 11 games, but he should be closer to 0.3 assists per game. Mathew Barzal, Matias Maccelli, and Calum Ritchie are all injured at the moment, but there is potential for Palmieri to be bumped to PP2 when they return, so monitor his deployment closely.

Matvei Michkov is heating up with eight points in his last five games. His most limiting factor, coach Rick Tocchet, appears to have noticed, giving him season high ice times of 18:02 and 18:05 in the last two games, with over five minutes of power play time in each. Michkov's other games have been in between 12:54 and 16:40 of ice time. He only has two assists on the season, both primary. One note of caution though, his shooting percentage of 42.1% will come down significantly.

Oliver Kapanen is pointless in four games since returning from injury. He has been parachuted onto the top line and power play unit duties following the injury to Nick Suzuki. He makes a good streaming option until the captain returns. Last season, Kapanen was among the league leaders with a very high 5v5 shooting percentage. In the Heritage Classic, Kapanen had the “third assist” on the Kaiden Guhle marker and contributed to that game-winning goal by screening Stuart Skinner.

Jack Quinn leads the Sabres in scoring with 11 points in 11 games. On the positive side he is getting much more ice time: 19:29 this season, compared to 15:39 last year. He is also receiving extensive power play time to the tune of 3:48, up from 2:14 last year. Jason Zucker, Josh Norris, and Josh Doan are all lurking on PP2 ready to take Quinn’s spot should he falter. The Sabres are 31st in the league with a power play success rate of 10.5%. On the negative side, Quinn has an elevated shooting percentage of 19.4% (career 12.2%). Another change from previous seasons is that Quinn is being sheltered by receiving 85.4% offensive zone starts. With Lindy Ruff's propensity to switch power play personnel, the multiple mouths to feed at the forward position, and Quinn's high shooting percentage, I think I would try to sell-high and swap him for someone more reliable.

Carter Verhaeghe has seven points in his last six games, gaining value following Aleksander Barkov's injury. He has firmly entrenched himself into the sell-high category. The reason for the uptick in production is (a) a cushy spot on the top power play, made available by Barkov’s absence, (b) an elevated 28.6% shooting percentage, and (c) an elevated 5v5 shooting percentage of 15.3%. If you can find a taker, flip him for someone like Rickard Rakell.

Speaking of which, Sidney Crosby (seven points in 12 games) and Rickard Rakell (five points in 12 games) have both disappointed in the early part of the 2026-27. Crosby's IPP and secondary assist rates are lower than expected but even when they correct, he might miss the point per game mark that he consistently hits with ease. Rakell has more room for improvement as advanced metrics like IPP, shooting percentage, and secondary assist rates are all low. Both make good buy-lows.

Last week, we looked at targeting some underperforming players based on the lack of success of their team's power play. The opposite is hard to do as the Western Conference has more sell-high candidates on overly successful power plays. There are only two Eastern teams in the top-11 of power play percentage. One of them is the Toronto Maple Leafs, which as of Monday were converting on 30.2% of their power plays, fifth in the NHL. The Leafs generally have a good power play; the two previous years, they were at 21.3% and 24.8%. However, their current PP success should cool down as they have the third highest shooting percentage at 5v4 (26.23%). In 13 games played, Kirill Marchenko (8), Auston Matthews (7), and William Nylander (7) have been feasting on power play points. By the end of the year, you will be able to count on one hand the number of players that will accumulate greater than 50% of their total points from power play points, so it is unlikely that this trio of Maple Leaf stars will continue at this pace. Moreover, Marchenko (17.6%), Matthews (23.1%), and Nylander (21.6%) all have shooting percentages that will regress downwards. Note: All these Maple Leafs stats do not include last night's game against the Calgary Flames (and Marchenko was injured).

Third-last in the NHL with a power play success rate of 11.5% are the Columbus Blue Jackets. In 2025-26, the Philadelphia Flyers finished last in the NHL and even they converted on 15.7% of their power plays. Other goalies are rejecting the Blue Jackets on the man advantage at unsustainable levels. Their shooting percentage at 5v4 is a minuscule 5.41%, last in the league. This rate happens to be lower than their 5v5 shooting percentage of 8.43%. Charlie Coyle leads the team with two power play points. Everyone on the Columbus power play is a buy-low…

Except Kent Johnson whose shooting percentage is high (20%). He could have had five goals on the season, but his goal at the end of the first period (last Tuesday against the Maple Leafs) went in 0.1 seconds after the buzzer. Two of his three assists are secondary, and he was demoted to the second power play unit in Saturday's game against the Vegas Golden Knights. Yesterday's Blue Jackets practice featured even more permutations with Damon Severson and Valeri Nichuskin replacing Adam Fantilli and Matthew Knies on the power play, and at one point Denton Mateychuk and Zach Werenski swapped units. It will be interesting to see what Rick Bowness ultimately decides for this struggling power play.

Player data from Frozen Tools. Advanced stats from Money Puck.

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