Analytics Advantage

Analytics Advantage: Advanced NHL Metrics and Predictive Fantasy Strategy
Welcome to the Analytics Advantage, the home of data-driven fantasy hockey at DobberHockey. In the modern era, winning a championship requires looking beyond the box score. This category is dedicated to the study of advanced NHL metrics—including Corsi, Fenwick, PDO, and Expected Goals (xG)—to identify the underlying trends that dictate future performance.

Decoding the Data
Curated by our resident data expert Stas Pupkov, the Analytics Advantage provides a filtered look at the league’s most complex numbers:

Regression Analysis: Identifying players whose current production is unsustainable due to outlier shooting percentages or “puck luck” (PDO).

Deployment Metrics: Analyzing offensive zone starts (oZS%), quality of competition (QoC), and time on ice (TOI) to find hidden value.

Predictive Modeling: Using advanced counting stats to forecast breakouts before they appear on the standard scoring leaders list.

Goalie Analytics: Deep-dives into High-Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%) and Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) to find reliable anchors for your crease.

Powered by Frozen Tools
The Analytics Advantage leverages the massive data engine of Frozen Tools. By translating raw NHL data into clear, strategic advice, we help you eliminate the guesswork from your roster management. Whether you are looking for a trade-high candidate or a diamond-in-the-rough waiver add, our analytical approach ensures your decisions are backed by logic and math.

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Analytics Advantage: Where Shots and Goals Come From, Including Thompson, Guentzel, Draisaitl, Scheifele, and More

By Stas Pupkov|2025-08-14T06:01:43-04:00August 14th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

This week’s edition takes a step back from my usual deep dive for a broader look at where shots and goals are coming from across the league. Using shot location and scoring data from MoneyPuck.com, I’ve built a set of visuals and tables that break down scoring volume, shooting efficiency, and where the league’s top [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Special Team Standouts, Individual Line Performance, and Goaltender Rebounds

By Stas Pupkov|2025-08-07T07:23:26-04:00August 7th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

This week I put together a new set of visuals using data from MoneyPuck to get a better read on how teams, lines, and goalies performed across the 2024–25 season. Each worksheet focuses on a different part of the game: shot efficiency, expected goals, rebound control, line performance, and filters for game situation like 5-on-5, [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Weekly Production, Player Shot Volume, and Consistency

By Stas Pupkov|2025-07-31T07:16:01-04:00July 31st, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

This week I put together a fresh batch of Tableau visuals using data from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference. The goal is to get a better look at scoring trends around the NHL. All of these charts let you filter by game situation. If you want to see who scores on the power play, [...]

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Analytics Advantage: A Visual Dive Into Historical Goal-Scoring and Point-Producing Rates

By Stas Pupkov|2025-07-24T06:20:15-04:00July 24th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

Alright, so this one’s another dive into a new dataset I’ve been messing around with. I pulled game-by-game data from MoneyPuck going back to the 2008–09 NHL season, cleaned it up as best I could, and threw it into Tableau to see what kind of visualizations I could build. This is very much a work [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Potential Rebounds With New Teams for Kreider, Tarasenko, Zegras, and Dobson

By Stas Pupkov|2025-07-17T06:39:21-04:00July 17th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

The NHL offseason always brings a wave of player movement. Some names land with contenders, others with rebuilding squads, and every new jersey comes with new context. For fantasy managers, the key is identifying which changes actually matter. Ice time shifts, new linemates, and special teams usage can tilt the scales more than raw talent [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Player Roles, Special Teams Usage, Efficient Shooters, and More

By Stas Pupkov|2025-07-10T05:25:19-04:00July 10th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

With the 2024–25 regular season in the books, I wanted to mess around with a few datasets that haven’t been front and center all year. I grabbed time on ice and advanced possession stats for every NHL skater this season and started slicing things up, not with the goal of proving any grand theory, but [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Deep Dive into Point Shares and Drafting/Development Trends

By Stas Pupkov|2025-07-03T06:24:24-04:00July 3rd, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

NHL Draft Visualized: Tableau Deep Dive into Point Shares and Development Trends This week, I’ve built on last week’s draft value work by digging into player outcomes with a fresh set of Tableau visuals. The core metric driving this analysis is Point Shares, a stat from Hockey Reference that functions similarly to WAR (Wins Above [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Changes to NHL Draft Trends Including Player Size, Production by Overall Pick, and More

By Stas Pupkov|2025-06-26T06:50:47-04:00June 26th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

Draft picks have long been one of the most debated commodities in the NHL, prized by teams seeking the elusive edge that could transform their futures. While the idea of pick valuation isn't new—Eric Tulsky notably introduced a market-driven framework a decade ago – there remains significant room for refinement, particularly as the NHL evolves [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Breaking Down the Florida Panthers’ Stanley Cup Final Dominance

By Stas Pupkov|2025-06-19T05:36:46-04:00June 19th, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

With the series wrapped up, this week’s edition of Analytics Advantage breaks down why the Florida Panthers claimed back-to-back titles over the Edmonton Oilers. Florida took the final 4–2, winning three of the last four games by a dominant 16–4, including a 5–1 clincher on home ice. Conn Smythe winner Sam Bennett capped off his [...]

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Analytics Advantage: Wrapping the Second Round of the NHL Playoffs with PDO, Shots, Blocks, and More

By Stas Pupkov|2025-05-22T07:19:51-04:00May 22nd, 2025|Analytics Advantage|

With the second round wrapped, this edition of Analytics Advantage walks through all five Tableau views defining what each quadrant represents, then highlighting who stood out and why. Expected Goals Against (xGA) vs Save Percentage (SV%) Here we split the ice into four zones by league-average xGA (horizontal) and SV% (vertical): Top-Left (“Stingy”): below-average danger [...]