The Dobotomy

So how does a 25-year-old fringe NHLer creep under everybody’s radar to thrive in a plum role on a line with an up-and-coming superstar? And will Matt Moulson continue to thrive or is he destined to fizzle?

Just eyeballing some of the early season scoring leaders, the old guard is already starting to take their positions. There are a few pleasant surprises though, and some unpleasant ones when scanning the bottom of the NHL stats list. Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin (Washington), Dany Heatley and Joe Thornton (San Jose) are sure to be in the Top 10 by season’s end. Here are some thoughts on some other names you see up there.

There are eight or nine situations around the league that have a pair of established star forwards on the first line and a spot up for grabs. Needless to say, if a player with any skill can grab a hold of that spot, he’s in for a huge jump in production.  Let’s take a look.

Part 1

The second part of a two-part look at some training camp battles with fantasy implications.

Every September, rosters spots are up for grabs and rarely do we consider big an impact the result could be in fantasy leagues. What if Petri Kontiola, who had a very good camp in Chicago last year, beat out Kris Versteeg for that final spot? Would he have later received Calder consideration? Instead of making his fantasy owners look smart, he’s playing in the KHL now.  All because of what may have amounted to a couple of exhibition games. There are a dozen examples like that each year and here are some situations to watch for.

Poolies are always trying to find that edge. We’re always looking for that new angle to look at statistics and twist them to our liking. We can make a player who had 15 points in 46 games look like a gem by drilling down into his ice time and pulling out his points per minute played. Or if that doesn’t work, how about his points per shift? Or his points per second of power-play time? Or his points on so-and-so’s line versus off of it? So many ways to look at it and if you find the right one, you can ‘prove’ that your guy is a future stud. Encouraging this dream world, DobberHockey now has the Frozen Pool section, where you can manipulate stats to your heart’s desire. Start analyzing and you become lost, as I was with my latest findings.

There is a lot going on in the hockey world down in, er, the desert. With all of these off-ice distractions, how can these promising young players continue to blossom into fantasy studs? Let’s take a look at some of the key components.

At the end of 2005-06, the Pittsburgh Penguins finished with a dismal 58 points. However, with Sidney Crosby about to be joined by Evgeni Malkin it was easy to see that great things were about to happen. Astute poolies had already stocked their teams with Pens and have seen nothing but dividends ever since. In 2006-07, the team that made the biggest strides was Pittsburgh. While they jumped from 58 to 105 points, the Washington Capitals floundered to just 70.

Once again, astute poolies knew that Alex Ovechkin could only be held back for so long and stocked up on his teammates. In 2007-08 they jumped to 94. That same year, the Chicago Blackhawks showed signs of life with 88 points. In 2008-09 they made it 104. Three years, three talented teams, three giant steps. In every case, poolies who saw it coming stocked up on the players for that particular team had it made in the shade – especially if they are in keeper leagues with a postseason component. So who is the team to watch in 2009-10? Here are the nominees…