Welcome to part two of the “Vegas Baby!” edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters! For first time readers, or those who missed last week’s part one, the concept is a play on Goldilocks and the Three Bears, except instead of bowls of porridge I’m covering skaters and declaring one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should). Each skater also receives a 1-10 rating, indicating, on a relative scale, how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-3, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or just right (rated 4-6, where 5 is the most “just right”) he is.

On tap this week for part two are Erik Haula, David Perron, and William Karlsson. Before you read any further, be sure to guess which is too hot, which too cold, and which just right. It’s an enjoyable game to play, but also important in that it confirms whether your “spidey senses” are correct, and, if they aren’t, allows you to determine what might have led your instincts astray.

*(all stats are current through Monday March 5th)

Erik Haula

Although several Vegas forwards have already set career single season highs in points, it’s Haula whose scoring gains poolies might reflexively view as least sustainable, what with him being older than the team’s other breakout star William Karlsson (more on him below), and with less of a track record than Jonathan Marchessault or David Perron. And guess what – this time skepticism is well warranted.

Much of Haula’s gains have come via power-play points; this after virtually no PP Time and no more than one PPP in any his previous seasons with Minnesota. Make no mistake – Haula is unsustainably overachieving on the PP. Of the 53 NHL forwards with more PPPs than Haula’s 15, only one (Kyle Turris) has taken the ice for fewer overall man advantage minutes. Also, Haula amazingly has only five more PP Shots (20) than PPPs, which is not a good sign for sustainability. In fact, if we just look at players who, in any of the last three seasons, had 20+ PPPts but 30 or fewer SOG on the PP (which is Haula’s current pace), and like Haula were 26+ years old yet hadn’t previously scored 60+ points in an NHL season, we get only Frans Nielsen in 2015-16, and we know Nielsen has gone on to produce worse in each of the two season(s) after meeting the criteria.

Additionally, Haula’s OZ% is 53%, which is lower than what it was last season when he tallied a mere 26 points in 72 games. Also, although his 9.93% team shooting percentage is not among the highest of Vegas forwards, concern arises when it’s coupled with his 16.9% personal shooting percentage, marking only the second time that metric been above 11.5%.

Haula’s IPP is 62.5% after having been 75%+ in two of the past four previous seasons, so there’s realistic room for him to pick up a few points here and there, but this also signifies he’s less dialed into scoring when playing with more skilled line mates. Also, 63% of Haula’s assists have been secondary, which is the highest percentage among the team’s top six forwards, and comes after 25 primary assists to only 15 secondary over his past three seasons with the Wild.

In all, Haula is TOO HOT, and receives a rating of 8.5, as he’s a rare example of an overachieving Vegas forward this season.

David Perron

Entering 2017-18, Perron was on his fifth team in four seasons, with his 46 points in 2017-18 marking the second most he’s scored since 2008-09. By all appearances, Perron had morphed from a once highly touted prospect who achieved early NHL success, to essentially a journeyman. Or so everyone thought. Enter the Vegas Golden Knights and fast forward to now, with Perron scoring at the point-per-game level and looking like a star. Can it last? Most likely yes.

At first glance, several of Perron’s numbers (IPP and PP usage percentage) look similar to those he had back in 2013-14 while he was in Edmonton, when he posted his previous career high of 57 points in 78 games, whereas his other numbers from this season (SOG rate, Total Ice Time) are markedly worse. Also, his team shooting percentage for this season is higher, while his primary to secondary assists ratio is similar. Beyond that, Perron’s PP scoring rate is well higher this season despite him being on pace for fewer PP Shots than in 2013-14.

So why, unlike with Perron’s most frequent linemate Haula, am I not seeing a decline? The answer has less to do with Perron than it does Vegas as a team.

In 2013-14, the Oliers scored 2.42 goals per game and had a PP conversion rate of 17.0%, leading to 46 total PPGs. Vegas, in contrast, is on pace for a full goal more per game (3.43) and nearly 15% more PPGs. As a major part of the Vegas top six and PP1, Perron will see a direct benefit from those numbers. It really is that simple – Perron is likely playing on par to how he fared in 2013-14, but this time is part of a much higher scoring team, and thus is producing more. Haula is too, except his jump is from a prior high that was nearly 25 points lower than Perron’s. And with Vegas showing no signs of slowing down their offensive production, Perron should be able to coast to the 75-80 points mark.

That’s why I’m labelling Perron as JUST RIGHT, with a rating of 5.5 to account for his slightly elevated team shooting percentage and low SOG rate.

William Karlsson

I know what most of you are thinking; how can Karlsson be here, since his 24% personal shooting percentage has to qualify him as “too hot” and Haula already was given that designation? Don’t get me wrong – I fully realize Karlsson is in uncharted territory when it comes to his personal shooting %, as going back to 2000-01 not a single forward has finished a season with 35+ goals with even a 21% personal shooting percentage, yet Karlsson has been above that threshold for virtually all season. The key is to remember is in fantasy it’s the entire picture of a player that matters, and that picture suggests Karlsson should actually doing even a bit better than he is now.

One key is Reilly Smith, who’s had an IPP between 60 and 62% in each of the past four seasons but thanks to his recent torrid streak of 21 points in 14 games is at 70% for 2017-18. That cannot last, and once it comes to a halt the main beneficiary stands to be Karlsson, who, although also sporting a career high in IPP already, doesn’t have years of steady IPP track record like Smith to point to.

Beyond that, Karlsson’s average shot distance is 26.4 feet, making his personal shooting percentage far less outrageous. Moreover, although Karlsson’s team shooting percentage is in the high 10s, it’s lower than both Marchessault’s and Smith’s, and is far enough below his personal shooting percentage that if (when?) his goal totals start to slip he should instead see more assists. In fact, his high goal totals help explain why he has more secondary assists than primary this season – more goals mean fewer primary assists. And it is also the sniper skills of Karlsson which have allowed Marchessault and Smith to enjoy more primary assists than secondary thus far.

Karlsson’s PP stats also have realistic room to grow, as although he’s taken the ice for barely 46% of the team’s total time with the man advantage, he’s been above that mark in five of its last six games. What that means is his relatively meager 11 PPPs stand to realistically increase. What’s also key is Karlsson has produced just as well when deployed on a PP unit with four forwards than with three, so whatever direction Vegas decides to go there, he should be able to shine.

Beyond that, Karlsson’s SOG totals also are a lagging indicator, as there too he’s better than his yearlong stats would suggest. In fact, he’s averaged above 2.5 SOG per game since January 5th, compared to 2.24 for the season overall; and with seven games of 4+ SOG during that same stretch as compared to just six during the entire season to that point.

For these reasons, I’m labelling Karlsson as TOO COLD, but not by much. He gets a rating of 2.5, with the idea being he could have a Smith-like run to close the season at or near the 80 point mark.

Hopefully you enjoyed this two-part look at Vegas skaters. Next week’s it’s back to a normal Cage Match; but rest assured – it’s going to be a doozy, so be sure to give it a read.