This week we’re going to jump back into analyzing players on a cost-per-point basis. Two weeks ago, we covered some of the top performers, and some of them have already come back to earth a little. With the season almost a month old already, players who are slumping have given us a large enough sample size to wonder whether they will be performing at some reduced level for the remainder of the season as well. Most players still don’t warrant you pressing the panic button, but it is Halloween, so which ghoulish numbers show signs of remaining in frightening territory?
Jonathan Toews (C) – Chicago Blackhawks
Cap Hit: $10,500,000
Cost per-point: $5,250,000
Toews’ contract has never been a good one in cap leagues, but with the pace of contracts around the rest of the league, it’s becoming more bearable. On the back of last season’s offensive success, owners of Toews in cap leagues may have even been excited to have him on their team for the first time in years. That excitement has quickly turned into a bit of a letdown (like getting raisins in with your Halloween candy), as Toews has only managed a measly goal and assist through his first 11 games. The Blackhawks’ captain is typically a solid starter, and has only once previously started with two points in his first eight games, which was back in the 2016-2017 season. That year Toews finished with 58 points in 72 games, and expecting a similar final line would make sense this time around. That means, we may be able to milk Toews for close to a point-per game from here on out.
Wayne Simmonds (RW) – New Jersey Devils
Cap Hit: $5,000,000
Cost per-point: $2,500,000
Simmonds didn’t sign a scary-looking deal, as it is only for one season. However, his scoring numbers thus far are frightening. One point in nine games is even slower than his disappointing end to last season. On the bright side, his shot rate is over three per game, he is seeing three-and-a-half minutes per game on the powerplay, and is providing owners with a steady hit production as well (over two per game). The points will come, as they will for the rest of the Devils too. Simmonds has a lot to earn on his next UFA deal, so he will be making the most of the rest of the year. He’s a buy right now if you can fit the cap hit.
Kevin Fiala (LW) – Minnesota Wild
Cap Hit: $3,000,000
Cost per-point: $3,000,000
The ghost of Kevin Fiala has sat up in the press-box for three of the last six games, and has been roaming the ice for Minnesota a lot of games this season. Zeros are the norm in terms of appearances on the stat sheet, and many fantasy owners are wondering how long it may last. As a highly regarded offensive prospect, the expectations for Fiala have been high for a few years now. He may have passed the 200-game breakout threshold, however, Fiala fits more into the mold of a smaller player who will end up peaking at around 400 games. As a result, after disappointing for the next two years of his contract, earning him an underpay on a prove-it deal, that’s when he will finally break out. For now, expect a 45-point pace over the full season, and maybe closer to 35 in a down year like this one.
Keith Yandle (D) – Florida Panthers
Cap Hit: $6,350,000
Cost per-point: $1,270,000
Last season’s 39 power-play points were certainly going to be a career high for the now 33-year-old, but it’s still managing to catch some by surprise. Yandle’s point pace is currently just under 40 points, with a little over half of them coming on the power play. A few more regulation assists will correct his numbers, and it will be back to a 50-point season for Yandle with 20 powerplay points. His IPP is low, 26 percent to be exact, and that is not sustainable, especially for someone of Yandle’s talent, whose career low was 48.3 percent two years ago. With the talent on that top power play, expect Yandle to be just fine.
For those in multi-category leagues, Yandle will continue to hurt you in the peripherals; just be aware of what you have.
I had an additional little write up here for the Stars’ forwards, but it seems that may be out the window with the excellent game Tuesday night. If these lines stay consistent and the players can build on one game, then the bounce back will be sudden.
However, it was just one game against a Minnesota Wild team that has struggled all over the ice this season. Make the Stars forwards a cautious buy right now.
Roman Josi (D) – Nashville Predators
Current Cap Hit: $6,350,000
Future Cap Hit: $9,059,000
The Predators captain signed an eight-year contract extension on Tuesday, that will see him in gold and silver through his age-37 season (the contract includes a full no-movement clause). His market value based on my model was about $8.5 million, so he is within a normal range, especially on a UFA deal. The later years of the contract may be tough to manage, but for now Josi continues to be one of the best fantasy defencemen in the game.
Many owners questioned John Carlson’s new contract from last summer, and whether it was too expensive to own in cap leagues. Josi has point per game potential when everything falls right, but like Carlson, his full season value will likely be within the 60-70 point range.
If you have questions, comments, or article requests, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.
I also jumped on the Keeping Karlsson Podcast earlier this week to discuss cap leagues. You can check out all the amazing work they do right here.
Previous Capped articles:
- Top 200 Fantasy Prospect Forwards - January 2020
- Ramblings: Injuries to Hamilton, Heiskanen, Karlsson, and Goalies (Jan 17)
- Top 50 Fantasy Prospect Defensemen- January 2020
- Ramblings: Hamilton Injury Fallout, Rust For Real?
- Looking Ahead: Is Kovalchuk Worth a Pickup?
- Capped: Unpredictable contract negotiations
- Frozen Tools Forensics: Shots Per 60
- Daily Fantasy Saturday: Stack Your Panthers