Greetings and welcome (back) to Frozen Tool Forensics. We have had a little internal shuffling at Dobber HQ and I will be taking over the Frozen Tool Column. Grant is going to take on the Wild West, which comes out on Mondays (check out his latest take). I will be trying to fill his admirable shoes and explore the possibilities that are the Dobber Frozen Tools. Each week we will take a look at some aspect of the page (a report, a stat, etc.) and break down what it tells us and how we can use it to inform our teams. This week we are going to look at the Per 60 Minutes report, and specifically focus on shots per 60.

The Per 60 Minutes table gives us a nice breakdown of a player’s total stats for the season plus additional columns for each of those stats per 60 minutes.

A per 60 min calculation gives us a reference point for what players are doing in the time on ice they are given. As anyone who has read my columns before likely knows, I talk a lot about opportunity – and a lot of that has to do with how much time on ice a player gets. Simply put, the more playing time the better (though of course, the quality of that time does matter – but that is for another column). The reason that is true is because in fantasy we count total produced stats (like shots) and players are more likely the end up with more produced stats if they have more time on ice.

A per 60 stat seems less useful then because it neutralizes some of that player’s opportunity. It does do that, but in doing so it highlights players who are either performing well only because of that opportunity (and are therefore more likely to be hit hard if that changes) and players who are doing well despite their opportunity (and are therefore likely to dramatically improve if it changes).

The following table shows shots per 60 over the course of the season (I pulled the data off of Frozen Tools to be able to move the columns).

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Per 60 SOG
MAX PACIORETTY	L	VGK	49	14.1
BRENDAN GALLAGHER	R	MTL	41	14
ALEX OVECHKIN	L	WSH	47	13.4
NATHAN MACKINNON	C	COL	46	13.3
JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT	C	VGK	44	12.2
DAVID PASTRNAK	R	BOS	48	12
OLIVER BJORKSTRAND	R	CBJ	36	11.8
CRAIG SMITH	R	NSH	45	11.8
BRADY TKACHUK	L	OTT	46	11.6
JEFF SKINNER	L	BUF	39	11.6
JAKUB VRANA	L	WSH	47	11.5
DAVID BACKES	R	BOS	16	11.4
AUSTON MATTHEWS	C	TOR	47	11.3
FILIP FORSBERG	L	NSH	39	11.1
TYLER SEGUIN	C	DAL	46	11.1
JOEL ARMIA	R	MTL	35	11.1
JEFF CARTER	C	L.A	48	11.1
PATRICE BERGERON	C	BOS	39	11
BLAKE COLEMAN	C	N.J	46	11

This table definitely tells us some things we already know. Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Ovechkin, and Nathan MacKinnon shoot a lot. This is backed up by their consistently high shot totals year in and year out. But once we account for time on ice, there are definitely some surprising names on this list.

Jeff Carter is playing about 17 minutes a night on average and has 151 shots over his 48 games. That is about 3.15 shots per game, a significant increase over his 2.29 from 2018-19.

Joel Armia has never broken the three shots per game threshold, but in just shy of 17 minutes of ice time this season he is putting up 3.14 shots per game. In both of these cases we see players who have increased their shot rates, but also have reasonable time on ice so we aren’t entirely surprised to see three shots per game.

Jakub Vrana, on the other hand, is not hitting three shots per game, but that is because he is seeing less than 15 minutes of time on ice per game. His 14:50 average is a career-high, and he is on pace for his highest shot total, but it is not moving the needle in the same way that even Carter and Armia are. What would happen if he were to get 17 minutes a night like they do? Well, since January 5 (five games as of this writing) he has averaged just shy of 17 minutes a night and has put up three shots a game over that period.

An additional feature of the Frozen Tools is the ability to produce reports by time period. In this case, we are going to run the same report over the last three weeks.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Per 60 SOG
MAX PACIORETTY	L	VGK	9	16.6
BLAKE COLEMAN	C	N.J	10	15.8
NATHAN MACKINNON	C	COL	9	14.3
DAVID PASTRNAK	R	BOS	10	13.8
PATRIC HORNQVIST	R	PIT	9	13.6
CRAIG SMITH	R	NSH	9	13.4
AUSTON MATTHEWS	C	TOR	9	13.2
BROCK BOESER	R	VAN	9	12.9
PATRIK LAINE	R	WPG	10	12.2
EVGENII DADONOV	R	FLA	9	12.1
TYLER SEGUIN	C	DAL	8	12
JAKOB SILFVERBERG	R	ANA	6	12
JAKE VIRTANEN	R	VAN	9 📢 advertisement:	11.9
JORDAN WEAL	C	MTL	9	11.9
ARTEMI PANARIN	L	NYR	9	11.8
JOHN TAVARES	C	TOR	9	11.6

There are a lot of the same names, and again, many are not surprising. But there is definitely some new information. Blake Coleman is quite a bit higher in this ranking than in a season-long view, and guys like Jake Virtanen and Jordan Weal didn’t make the season-long list at all. Having these two lists does beg the question: Who has seen the biggest change over the last three weeks? A quick lookup function can tell us that for sure (plus a filter to remove a couple of the most random small sample issues).

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Per 60 SOG	Change
BLAKE COLEMAN	C	N.J	10	15.8	4.8
JORDAN WEAL	C	MTL	9	11.9	4.5
JAKOB SILFVERBERG	R	ANA	6	12	4.4
MATTIAS JANMARK	C	DAL	8	9.9	4.2
JOONAS DONSKOI	R	COL	7	10.9	4.1
LUCAS WALLMARK	C	CAR	9	10.6	4.1
MATS ZUCCARELLO	R	MIN	8	9.7	3.5
BROCK BOESER	R	VAN	9	12.9	3.1
MATHEW BARZAL	C	NYI	10	10.6	3.1
GABRIEL LANDESKOG	L	COL	9	11.4	3
PATRIC HORNQVIST	R	PIT	9	13.6	2.9
EVGENII DADONOV	R	FLA	9	12.1	2.9

Coleman is the biggest winner here, having almost five more shots per 60 minutes over the last three weeks compared to his full-season pace. Was there something that changed in the last month? Well, Taylor Hall was traded in the middle of December so that certainly could have had something to do with it. Patric Hornqvist was in a similar situation. He returned to a Pittsburgh team that was missing Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. In each case, we could be looking at a player who was asked to fill a different role during this time period.

On the other side of the equation, we can also look at players who have been dropping off the face of the earth.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	Per 60 SOG	Change
JORDAN KYROU	C	STL	5	2	-4.1
VALERI NICHUSHKIN	R	COL	8	4	-3.8
ALEX TUCH	R	VGK	9	5.1	-3.5
CHRISTIAN FISCHER	R	ARI	7	5.2	-3.3
ANTHONY DUCLAIR	L	OTT	7	6.9	-3.3
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK	L	PHI	10	5.8	-3.2
MATHIEU PERREAULT	L	WPG	8	3	-3.2
MARKUS NUTIVAARA	D	CBJ	5	0.9	-3.2
CLAYTON KELLER	R	ARI	10	6.9	-3.2
ALEXANDER RADULOV	R	DAL	8	5.3	-3.1
MILAN LUCIC	L	CGY	9	2.3	-3.1
BRADY TKACHUK	L	OTT	8	8.5	-3.1

In December, Jordan Kyrou got some legitimate top six time with Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz. They appear to have been a huge boon to his shot production and helped put him in situations where he could shoot at a significantly higher rate. He has since lost that deployment and is clearly struggling to find offensive production in his new situation. Anthony Duclair has also had a rough go of it lately as well. He spent some time injured, but his production has changed relatively significantly since then leading many to speculate that he is attempting to play while injured.

There is a lot to explore with these charts, and hopefully, we hit enough to get some of the juices flowing. Hit up the comments with questions or topics for future columns.

Until next week, thanks for reading.

UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 16 - 13:11	BOS	vs	STL
Nov 16 - 16:11	SEA	vs	NYI
Nov 16 - 19:11	CAR	vs	OTT
Nov 16 - 19:11	T.B	vs	N.J
Nov 16 - 19:11	PHI	vs	BUF
Nov 16 - 19:11	MTL	vs	CBJ
Nov 16 - 19:11	FLA	vs	WPG
Nov 16 - 19:11	TOR	vs	EDM
Nov 16 - 19:11	PIT	vs	S.J
Nov 16 - 20:11	MIN	vs	DAL
Nov 16 - 20:11	L.A	vs	DET
Nov 16 - 22:11	VAN	vs	CHI