Frozen Tools Forensics: Shots Per 60
Chris Kane
2020-01-17
Greetings and welcome (back) to Frozen Tool Forensics. We have had a little internal shuffling at Dobber HQ and I will be taking over the Frozen Tool Column. Grant is going to take on the Wild West, which comes out on Mondays (check out his latest take). I will be trying to fill his admirable shoes and explore the possibilities that are the Dobber Frozen Tools. Each week we will take a look at some aspect of the page (a report, a stat, etc.) and break down what it tells us and how we can use it to inform our teams. This week we are going to look at the Per 60 Minutes report, and specifically focus on shots per 60.
The Per 60 Minutes table gives us a nice breakdown of a player’s total stats for the season plus additional columns for each of those stats per 60 minutes.
A per 60 min calculation gives us a reference point for what players are doing in the time on ice they are given. As anyone who has read my columns before likely knows, I talk a lot about opportunity – and a lot of that has to do with how much time on ice a player gets. Simply put, the more playing time the better (though of course, the quality of that time does matter – but that is for another column). The reason that is true is because in fantasy we count total produced stats (like shots) and players are more likely the end up with more produced stats if they have more time on ice.
A per 60 stat seems less useful then because it neutralizes some of that player’s opportunity. It does do that, but in doing so it highlights players who are either performing well only because of that opportunity (and are therefore more likely to be hit hard if that changes) and players who are doing well despite their opportunity (and are therefore likely to dramatically improve if it changes).
The following table shows shots per 60 over the course of the season (I pulled the data off of Frozen Tools to be able to move the columns).
|
Name |
Pos |
Team |
GP |
Per 60 SOG |
|
MAX PACIORETTY |
L |
VGK |
49 |
14.1 |
|
BRENDAN GALLAGHER |
R |
MTL |
41 |
14 |
|
ALEX OVECHKIN |
L |
WSH |
47 |
13.4 |
|
NATHAN MACKINNON |
C |
COL |
46 |
13.3 |
|
JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT |
C |
VGK |
44 |
12.2 |
|
DAVID PASTRNAK |
R |
BOS |
48 |
12 |
|
OLIVER BJORKSTRAND |
R |
CBJ |
36 |
11.8 |
|
CRAIG SMITH |
R |
NSH |
45 |
11.8 |
|
BRADY TKACHUK |
L |
OTT |
46 |
11.6 |
|
JEFF SKINNER |
L |
BUF |
39 |
11.6 |
|
JAKUB VRANA |
L |
WSH |
47 |
11.5 |
|
DAVID BACKES |
R |
BOS |
16 |
11.4 |
|
AUSTON MATTHEWS |
C |
TOR |
47 |
11.3 |
|
FILIP FORSBERG |
L |
NSH |
39 |
11.1 |
|
TYLER SEGUIN |
C |
DAL |
46 |
11.1 |
|
JOEL ARMIA |
R |
MTL |
35 |
11.1 |
|
JEFF CARTER |
C |
L.A |
48 |
11.1 |
|
PATRICE BERGERON |
C |
BOS |
39 |
11 |
|
BLAKE COLEMAN |
C |
N.J |
46 |
11 |
This table definitely tells us some things we already know. Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Alex Ovechkin, and Nathan MacKinnon shoot a lot. This is backed up by their consistently high shot totals year in and year out. But once we account for time on ice, there are definitely some surprising names on this list.
Jeff Carter is playing about 17 minutes a night on average and has 151 shots over his 48 games. That is about 3.15 shots per game, a significant increase over his 2.29 from 2018-19.
Joel Armia has never broken the three shots per game threshold, but in just shy of 17 minutes of ice time this season he is putting up 3.14 shots per game. In both of these cases we see players who have increased their shot rates, but also have reasonable time on ice so we aren’t entirely surprised to see three shots per game.
Jakub Vrana, on the other hand, is not hitting three shots per game, but that is because he is seeing less than 15 minutes of time on ice per game. His 14:50 average is a career-high, and he is on pace for his highest shot total, but it is not moving the needle in the same way that even Carter and Armia are. What would happen if he were to get 17 minutes a night like they do? Well, since January 5 (five games as of this writing) he has averaged just shy of 17 minutes a night and has put up three shots a game over that period.
An additional feature of the Frozen Tools is the ability to produce reports by time period. In this case, we are going to run the same report over the last three weeks.
|
Name |
Pos |
Team |
GP |
Per 60 SOG |
|
MAX PACIORETTY |
L |
VGK |
9 |
16.6 |
|
BLAKE COLEMAN |
C |
N.J |
10 |
15.8 |
|
NATHAN MACKINNON |
C |
COL |
9 |
14.3 |
|
DAVID PASTRNAK |
R |
BOS |
10 |
13.8 |
|
PATRIC HORNQVIST |
R |
PIT |
9 |
13.6 |
|
CRAIG SMITH |
R |
NSH |
9 |
13.4 |
|
AUSTON MATTHEWS |
C |
TOR |
9 |
13.2 |
|
BROCK BOESER |
R |
VAN |
9 |
12.9 |
|
PATRIK LAINE |
R |
WPG |
10 |
12.2 |
|
EVGENII DADONOV |
R |
FLA |
9 |
12.1 |
|
TYLER SEGUIN |
C |
DAL |
8 |
12 |
|
JAKOB SILFVERBERG |
R |
ANA |
6 |
12 |
|
JAKE VIRTANEN |
R |
VAN |
9
📢 advertisement:
|
11.9 |
|
JORDAN WEAL |
C |
MTL |
9 |
11.9 |
|
ARTEMI PANARIN |
L |
NYR |
9 |
11.8 |
|
JOHN TAVARES |
C |
TOR |
9 |
11.6 |
There are a lot of the same names, and again, many are not surprising. But there is definitely some new information. Blake Coleman is quite a bit higher in this ranking than in a season-long view, and guys like Jake Virtanen and Jordan Weal didn’t make the season-long list at all. Having these two lists does beg the question: Who has seen the biggest change over the last three weeks? A quick lookup function can tell us that for sure (plus a filter to remove a couple of the most random small sample issues).
|
Name |
Pos |
Team |
GP |
Per 60 SOG |
Change |
|
BLAKE COLEMAN |
C |
N.J |
10 |
15.8 |
4.8 |
|
JORDAN WEAL |
C |
MTL |
9 |
11.9 |
4.5 |
|
JAKOB SILFVERBERG |
R |
ANA |
6 |
12 |
4.4 |
|
MATTIAS JANMARK |
C |
DAL |
8 |
9.9 |
4.2 |
|
JOONAS DONSKOI |
R |
COL |
7 |
10.9 |
4.1 |
|
LUCAS WALLMARK |
C |
CAR |
9 |
10.6 |
4.1 |
|
MATS ZUCCARELLO |
R |
MIN |
8 |
9.7 |
3.5 |
|
BROCK BOESER |
R |
VAN |
9 |
12.9 |
3.1 |
|
MATHEW BARZAL |
C |
NYI |
10 |
10.6 |
3.1 |
|
GABRIEL LANDESKOG |
L |
COL |
9 |
11.4 |
3 |
|
PATRIC HORNQVIST |
R |
PIT |
9 |
13.6 |
2.9 |
|
EVGENII DADONOV |
R |
FLA |
9 |
12.1 |
2.9 |
Coleman is the biggest winner here, having almost five more shots per 60 minutes over the last three weeks compared to his full-season pace. Was there something that changed in the last month? Well, Taylor Hall was traded in the middle of December so that certainly could have had something to do with it. Patric Hornqvist was in a similar situation. He returned to a Pittsburgh team that was missing Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. In each case, we could be looking at a player who was asked to fill a different role during this time period.
On the other side of the equation, we can also look at players who have been dropping off the face of the earth.
|
Name |
Pos |
Team |
GP |
Per 60 SOG |
Change |
|
JORDAN KYROU |
C |
STL |
5 |
2 |
-4.1 |
|
VALERI NICHUSHKIN |
R |
COL |
8 |
4 |
-3.8 |
|
ALEX TUCH |
R |
VGK |
9 |
5.1 |
-3.5 |
|
CHRISTIAN FISCHER |
R |
ARI |
7 |
5.2 |
-3.3 |
|
ANTHONY DUCLAIR |
L |
OTT |
7 |
6.9 |
-3.3 |
|
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK |
L |
PHI |
10 |
5.8 |
-3.2 |
|
MATHIEU PERREAULT |
L |
WPG |
8 |
3 |
-3.2 |
|
MARKUS NUTIVAARA |
D |
CBJ |
5 |
0.9 |
-3.2 |
|
CLAYTON KELLER |
R |
ARI |
10 |
6.9 |
-3.2 |
|
ALEXANDER RADULOV |
R |
DAL |
8 |
5.3 |
-3.1 |
|
MILAN LUCIC |
L |
CGY |
9 |
2.3 |
-3.1 |
|
BRADY TKACHUK |
L |
OTT |
8 |
8.5 |
-3.1 |
In December, Jordan Kyrou got some legitimate top six time with Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz. They appear to have been a huge boon to his shot production and helped put him in situations where he could shoot at a significantly higher rate. He has since lost that deployment and is clearly struggling to find offensive production in his new situation. Anthony Duclair has also had a rough go of it lately as well. He spent some time injured, but his production has changed relatively significantly since then leading many to speculate that he is attempting to play while injured.
There is a lot to explore with these charts, and hopefully, we hit enough to get some of the juices flowing. Hit up the comments with questions or topics for future columns.
Until next week, thanks for reading.
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