We’re going back to the well for this rendition of the Ramblings. A few months ago, mere moments before the NHL season kicked off, I shared my notes from a recent appearance on The Hockey PDOCast with Dimitri Filipovich. Well, Dim and I decided to evaluate our early predictions while discussing all the early surprises, disappointments and everything in between last weekend in a follow-up episode. Below are my notes (partially fleshed out for more clarity). 

Enjoy!

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Roope Hintz

• We called this one right so far. 

• Most common mates at evens this year – Benn and Perry

  • Pavelski and Radulov next most common

  • Has split his time evenly on the PP units

• • 16 mins (+2min PPTOI)

• Clicking at 26% – due for a massive swing back to earth

• Pushing for the Cy Young 11+2

• The best player for the Stars through their dreadful start. Now the team is rolling and his assist rate should start to rise. 

• Injury – was out for two weeks

  • Came back – 2 goals in 5 games

• Was centring Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin and on PP1. Now centring Denis Gurianov and Joe Pavelski on L2 and bumped to PP2

  • ​Mattias Janmark up on the top PP unit is far from safe. I imagine Hintz will get another look there soon.

  • He's got the size, speed, skill and a developmental arc that's racing upwards. I'm a believer.

Filip Hronek

• He’s doing pretty well exactly what we had hoped

• He’s been splitting PPTOI – 50.3% so far. But with Dennis Cholowski instead of Mike Green pilfering some of the opportunities.

• He’s their top defender by a mile – 23 mins a night but could be among the league leaders. He's that good.

• But! He's getting buried. Only 41 Ozone Starts – That hurts. He's become too important as a defensive player on the worst defensive team.

  • Still posting basically a wash for play driving at 5v5 (50.8 CF%)

• Meanwhile, Cholowski seeing 70% ozone and has a worse CF% 

  • Sheltering him because he’s mostly offense at this point, but he still can't drive play like Hronek.

• Clearly the team sees Hronek as their everything – taking 48% of the PK time too

• Concern long term about his upside vs deployment opportunities as Mo Seider is looking all sorts of good in the AHL.

  • Seider is going to come gunning for that top RHD spot very soon. 

• I could see Hronek becoming an all-around guy – terrific real-life player – but not ideal for pushing 50+ point seasons. 

Tyler Bertuzzi

• He’s been a perfect compliment on L1

• 24 in 30

• 3:14 on PPTOI

• 2 shots/per

• 16.4 SH – high finisher historically and clicked at that level in 73 games last season. Likely a sustainable metric.

• Has gone from sub-45% Ozone starts last season to 55% this year. IPP is hovering around 70 – he and Mantha are getting their points when the team scores. Not too high, but Bertuzzi could see a reduction when the luck starts to shift Larkin's way (whose IPP is just 46)

Kevin Labanc

• Brutal start. Had found some momentum but is now floundering with 6 points in his last 13 games

• Dropped outside of the top six

• Has been flip-flopping between the two PP units – most common linemates at 5v4 are Couture, Hertl, E. Kane.

  •   Seeing consistent PP2 of late 
• Starts 58% in the Ozone last year. Just 48% this year

• I’m scared of San Jose – Labanc was supposed to be a driver of that transitioning core but he needs to find more consistency.

• Evander Kane has really run with the top deployment.

• Labanc played at a 65-point pace in the back 40 last year. He's on a 44 point pace in the first 25 this year. Which is the real Kevin Labanc?

   

   

  • Realistically, he's probably somewhere in the middle this year. And holds the medium high-end (65-70) as an upside, but will need to find consistent minutes and usage.
• I'm getting ready to walk away

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This kid is way too clever.

Quinn Hughes is on another planet.

He uses the oncoming player's momentum to propel his acceleration before dangling around the offensive end and setting up a shot on net.

He's 20 years old. pic.twitter.com/cchlQpaYNV

— /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) December 4, 2019

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Filip Forberg

• We didn’t talk about him on the show, but I had him forecasted for  36 goals and 72 points in 75 games 

   

   

  • He’s on pace to do about that – but with 41 goals.

• I really feel like he’s a forgotten superstar. – Maybe not as much as Jonathan Huberdeau – who is top-10 in total points since the start of last season. but severely underrated. If Nashville ever went out and bought a true superstar that would compliment Forsberg, his numbers would skyrocket. Or if he could stay healthy. Health would be good. 

Nikita Gusev

• 12 points in 24 games – but 4 in the last 4

• 3 healthy scratches

• 12:54 a night

• Was absolutely buried with dzone starts to start the year (30% ozone starts) – John Hynes had flipped that of late (and he's now out the door) which has gotten Gusev up to 49%

•  Most common linemate is Travis Zajac – that’s not going to help him produce.

• That said, he has been a liability – amongst a sea of young players who are liabilities. The Devils are obviously going to be patient and give Jack Hughes all the chances he needs. A 27-year-old Gusev on a two-year deal? Not so much. 

• I still think Gusev has the goods to be an impact player. And perhaps the new coach will help facilitate that. Maybe now is the time to kick the tires on a very low, buy-low?

Anthony Mantha

• Dim and I nailed this one. 

• 40-goal, 75 point pace

• Living on L1 and PP1

• Shot generation is WAY up – just shy of 4 per game

• Metrics are very sound. 

• This guy is a 35 goal, 75 point player right now. And I feel confident that there is more to come. 

• I'm buying him at every opportunity as the Red Wings tank won't last forever. Zadina, Seider, Veleno are all coming. A top-three pick in the DEEP 2020 class will jump within two years. Watch out for Detroit.

Andrei Svechnikov

• Another home run

• We felt he would be stuck off of the top line but see top PP

  • Well, he’s been getting both – Aho his most common linemate at even-strength

• That line with Aho and TT are controlling 65% of the shot share

• T-4th in the league with 4.1 p/60

• I would still like to see him shoot the puck more. 

  • He had 2.3 last year

  • Up to 2.65 this year

  • His draft year in Barrie he put up 4 per game – I think he’ll get to that level in Carolina one day too – probably next season. 

• He’s a superstar. I'd do a lot of terrible, unforgivable things to obtain him in a keeper. He's going to run around popping 90 points on the regular for the next little while. 

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Brayden Point stayed in the game. Johansen will be getting a phone call for this one. 

Ryan Johansen gets ejected for elbowing Brayden Point pic.twitter.com/xbygIciWYJ

— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) December 4, 2019

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Ondrej Kase

• Well, we can basically say this about the entire Ducks squad – but if you can’t score on the PP you won’t have any interesting assets. 

  • 7 PPG as a team.

  • 3 players – Pasta, McDavid and Neal all have more

• Only seeing 15 mins and 2nd PP duties

  • But with Getzlaf a ton at EV

• The shot rates are down a bit but still top 10 in the league

• If they ever hook Kase up with Getz and Rakell for keeps – all three should jump

  • Not really buying into him anymore. Still some potential but on a poor team, injury concerns and general lack of deployment and production.

Jakub Vrana

• 68 point pace – not seeing PP1 as expected. 

• But he’s good. Maybe good enough to go over 60 without that real PPTOI – which is rare

• We figured 55 was doable so we weren’t too far off at this point.

• If he was elsewhere with the juicy minutes – I'd absolutely love him. But trapped off of that Washington PP means the glass ceiling is thick. 

• He scored two more goals on Tuesday night just to make sure I didn't forget to mention just how talented he is. 

JT Miller

• Man, I was all the way wrong on this one. I fancied Miller to be locked with Horvat. And he's seen some time on that second line in an attempt to get it rolling. 

• His presence on the top PP unit has been massive. Quinn Hughes has made the world spin, but Miller has been integral in the team leading the league up a man. 

• 70 points legit this season. He's a keeper. 

Ryan Strome

• NOBODY saw this coming

• I was pissed when the Rangers dumped Filip Chytil in the minors so Strome could be the 2C

• When Mika Zibanejad went down, it was supposed to be a recipe for disaster

  • Instead, Strome has been terrific and meshed very well with Artemi Panarin

• Unsurprisingly, the metrics don’t match up for continued success

  • Personal and EV Shooting % are way too high

  • Seeing deployment that was unsustainable

    • 20 minutes a night with 3 on the top PP with those juicy, young NYR piece. He had better put up a few points!

• With Zibanejad coming back, he’s slid down the lineup and his points will slide with it. 

  • But NYR does have some fun winger options for him at that spot. He’s been a bright spot early this year, but I'm struggling to believe it’s real.

  • He's an RFA at the end of the year and building a strong case for an arbitration hearing. The Rangers would be smart to deal him before the metrics crash back to earth. You should too if you can find a buyer. 

Tony DeAngelo

• I thought he was going to get squeezed out in NYR with Trouba and Fox joining the fray

• But instead, he’s been the best D asset on that team

• He and Trouba have almost the exact same PPTOI totals, yet Tony has DOUBLED his production on the man advantag

• He is 60% better than Fox on PP1 as well. 

• He doesn’t shoot nearly enough still – under 2 per game – which is up from last year, but the 15% shooting will fall precipitously 

• He’s banked enough points and enough goodwill that even when the fall comes, he should still be solid and keep the deployment. 

• I love what I'm seeing from Fox though.. He will be a threat to pushing Tony to the 2nd unit for good. Seriously, Fox is really good. 

Martin Necas

• Another star in the making

• We touched on his need to steal that 2C job but that top PP would be unavailable. 

• He’s produced nearly all of his EVPs with Haula and Dazingel

• Playing at a 50 point pace as a rookie with 13 minutes of ice and isolated from the team’s best players (minus Nino)

• The upside is real

• Just need to get him a partner in crime since it looks like Svech is now with Aho

• Never going to be a volume shooter, so works best with a sniping mate. 

Cale Makar

• One of the top stories of the young season

• He’s 100% the real deal and will push for D point leader for many years 

• BUT! This level of production cannot and will not continue

• 16% SH is coming waaay down

• 13 at 5v5 too

• Kid is crazy dynamic though. 

  • We’re going to have some fun with him, Dahlin and Hughes running around for the next 15 years

Canucks PP

• Leads the league in opportunities and PPGs

• Quinn Hughes has transformed that top unit. And to think we had to lobby to get him up with the big boys!

  • 13 PPPs – lead all D

  • Despite starting on PP2, he Leads all D in avg PPTOI 4:04 and 2nd in overall PPTOI behind only Carlson.

• Even strength scoring is another issue altogether for the club, but if they can continue feasting on the man-advantage, the high-end players will be valuable. 

Ivan Provorov

• Now that Ghost is well.. mostly a ghost, Provo is the man on that top unit

• His 10 PPPs so far are more than the last two years combined

• The 5v5 production is lagging but the 22-year-old is a good bet to hit 50 this year.

• More upside to come – he was a monster in jr. 

• Racks up blocks and hits in multi leagues too

Dougie Hamilton

• This is it. All those trips to the museum have paid off. He’s here. 

• 28 points in 28 games

  • 18 EVPs trials only Carlson

• All his Metrics are very sustainable – except for the personal SH% – that will drop but probably only 2 or 3 points. 

  • But 20 goals and 65-70 points are very realistic.

Travis Konecny

• 27 in 28

  • Top 20 in pts/60

• Seeing less than 50% Ozone starts

• All the metrics are sustainable – even maybe ready for a little uptick!

• Looks great with Couturier at evens and on that top PP

• He’s for real and on a sweet contract.

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