A Conversation about the Lightning’s Power Play, Stanley Cup Final, Tanev, E-Kane, plus more…

UPDATE: Read Dobber's statement regarding his health here. 

I've told Dobber through email that he will get through this because I know him as someone who gets things done. So I know he will kick cancer to the curb. But please keep him in your thoughts and prayers. 

This news shook me because I am a similar age to Dobber, have two children that are a similar age to his, and have thankfully never had any serious health issues during my life. But news like this serves as a reminder to live and enjoy each day to its fullest. 

It's also encouraging to see the outpouring of support for Dobber both on this site and on Twitter today. This is proof of the impact that he has had on so many. 

On a site level, Mike Clifford has agreed to take on the Monday Ramblings, while I will fill in on the Wednesday Ramblings. I will be the first to admit that I can't completely fill Dobber's shoes in his slot. The Ramblings are his baby. No one can write them like him. In fact, I will be ecstatic once he is able to resume normal duty, because then I will know he is back to normal health and then I can read them, just as you do. But rest assured that all of the writers here, including myself, will continue to provide what we hope is fantasy hockey information that you can use to your advantage.

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I received an interesting question on Twitter on Monday regarding the outlook on Victor Hedman next season.
 

@Ian_Gooding just posted something on the forum and wondered on your take re Hedman – this season was buoyed by pp production…

— Daniel Brabon (@Brabon31) June 5, 2017

Daniel’s question resulted from this comment on the Forum from user Sulla:

Just to take this a step further as a conversation piece but I do wonder about Hedman next season – this year was a huge season for him but was buoyed by his PP production feeding Kucherov – issue before was that he was on the wrong side to feed Stamkos one timers so if Stamkos gets up to PP1 again do we see Hedman being bumped off and a subsequent decline? Do the Bolts have a 1a and 1b on the pp and split the time which also means a decrease for Hedman – may be time to sell high….

I’m not sure if there was a Fantasy Impact article written about the Steven Stamkos season-ending injury. If there wasn’t, there should have been. Stamkos played only 17 games all season, so the Tampa power play had a completely different look and feel without him. Let’s look at the power-play point production for some of the affected parties.

That’s a massive jump in power-play points for Hedman. In fact, his jump in overall points from 47 points in 2015-16 to 72 points in 2016-17 (a 25-point increase) is almost entirely composed of power-play points (a 22-point increase). There may have been other factors in play for Hedman’s breakout season, but this gap is too significant to ignore.

It’s also worth mentioning that Kucherov’s seven power-play point increase was all goals, since he actually improved by eight power-play goals. He scored ten more total goals in 2016-17 (40) than in 2015-16 (30), so his increased importance to the power play also played a significant role in his move to fantasy elite status.

I haven’t forgotten that Drouin played in just 21 games in 2015-16 and played those games in a limited role. So I won’t focus on his status here. But it’s possible that he is bumped entirely from the first-unit power play with a Stamkos return, although the power-play setup mentioned in the next paragraph works in his favor.

A glance at the Frozen Pool line combinations and some Lightning power-play game film shows that they typically play four forwards and a defenseman on their power play. Who that first-unit defenseman is has also changed from season to season.

With all these power-play point increases, and the increase for Hedman being so much higher than the decrease for Stralman, is it possible that the Lightning power-play actually improved, in spite of making it to the conference final in 2015-16 and missing the playoffs in 2016-17? Here’s what I found (league ranking in parentheses).

So your team loses its top goal scorer, and your team’s power-play improves by a wide margin? This seems strange, but the numbers tell an interesting story. I will mention that Stamkos scored three power-play goals and seven power-play points before his injury, which projected over a full season would have resulted in about 15 power-play goals and 34 power-play points. That would have cut into Kucherov’s 17 power-play goals and 32 power-play points for sure.

So results-wise, is the Bolts’ power play better off without Steven Stamkos? We could go back two more seasons, one where Stamkos was healthy all season (2014-15) and one where Stamkos missed about half his games (2013-14). Here’s how the power play performed those two seasons.

So over those two seasons, the Stamkos injury didn’t seem to have much of an overall impact (without knowing how the power play performed in 2013-14 with Stamkos in the lineup vs. without him). So it would be more fair to say that Stamkos does not improve the power play significantly, nor does he hinder it.

Back to the original question, though. It would also be fair to say that Stamkos’ return could cut into the power-play production of others. I would imagine that Kucherov’s power-play points (and as a result, overall points) decline at least a little with Stamkos back. There’s only so many slices of the pie to go around when it comes to power-play goals.

It’s possible that the left-handed shot duo of Hedman/Kucherov clicks, as does the right-handed shot duo of Stamkos/Stralman. So if Kucherov scores fewer goals with the man advantage, then Hedman as a result could lose power-play points. If the Tampa power play fails to produce, it’s quite possible that Jon Cooper makes the switch from Hedman back to Stralman at some point. But based on last year’s results, Cooper would be crazy to bump Hedman off that first-unit power play to start the season, even if he and Stamkos aren’t a great match.

So yes, I could see Hedman losing power-play points with a Stamkos return. It may not be a drastic drop off his 33 power-play points, which led all defensemen in 2016-17. But you should budget for a lower power-play point total, and as a result a lower overall point total, from Hedman in 2017-18.

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So who’s going to win the Stanley Cup? It seems as though Nashville has the upper hand right now, having won the last two games while being the stronger possession team all four games. From what I’ve seen, their defense seems to do a much better job of protecting Pekka Rinne than the Pens’ defense can muster for Matt Murray. Ryan Johansen injury? No problem, we’ll just bring in Frederick Gaudreau, even though you’ve probably never heard of him. Having depth in the playoffs is great.

The Penguins must be worn out at this point. Think about all the hockey they’ve played. A Stanley Cup run last season. The World Cup for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, among others. And now two previous series that have gone the seven-game distance. We might not be seeing the best hockey from the Penguins right now because there simply isn’t much left in the tank.

But in order to win the Cup, Nashville has to win one in Pittsburgh. That won’t be easy, since the Penguins’ home record was a league-leading .804 during the regular season and 9-3 during the playoffs. The Penguins were also able to generate more high-danger scoring chances in Game 4, but could simply not convert them.

Having said that, Game 5 is a must-win for the Penguins. Because I can’t see them winning Game 6 in Nashville no matter who wins Game 5. It goes without saying that home ice means something for Nashville too.

My opinion on the Penguins’ goaltending situation? Stick with Matt Murray. His past two games haven’t been great, but Rinne’s first two games in the series weren’t either. Then look what happened in Games 3 and 4.

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Fantasy owners probably aren’t eagerly anticipating a potential Chris Tanev trade. But his acquisition would help his new team’s goalies. Although his offensive numbers and real-time stats (hits/blocked shots) are nowhere near spectacular, Tanev plays a simple stay-at-home game, makes few mistakes, and costs his team very few penalties (his career high is 14 PIM, set this season). As Elliotte Friedman said during Game 4, his asking price will be high. For a team like Dallas that is looking to rebound and compete for a playoff spot, Tanev would be a great fit.

Here are five smart trade destinations for Tanev (Sportsnet).

The other player mentioned by Friedman as a potential trade candidate is Evander Kane. New GM Jason Botterill has no loyalty toward Kane, and it sounds like ownership isn’t thrilled with his off-ice behavior. Kane is a risky investment in both real-life and fantasy, not just because of the perceived character issues but also the injury risk. Band-Aid Boy Kane played 70 games this past season, which was his highest total in five seasons.

But it’s difficult to completely ignore Kane in fantasy. If he stayed healthy for the entire season, he would have hit 30 goals. He provides robust totals in both hits and penalty minutes, and there’s a good chance that your league counts one of those categories. And he’s consistently at or near the top 10 in shots on goal in spite of the games missed. Yes, he’s high risk, but he’s also high reward.

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