Projections, Projections we All Love Our Projections (2010)

Ryan Ma

2010-05-11

Horcoff

 

Sorry for the brief hiatus the last couple of weeks, I've been roughing it in Europe and enjoying some time off. Anyways, back this week with a ripper of an article. At the end of last season I wrote a similar column which was very well received by my fellow Dobberites, so I figured I'd go back to the well once again this off-season. It's a great add-on to give you a decent recap of what went on this past fantasy season and what to expect for the upcoming season especially if you are trying to get a head start on your competition next campaign.

 

First, let’s clear up some general misconceptions about projections:

 

  1. First of all we need to place a realistic value on overall point production.
  • This past season saw only 21 players achieve the greater than point-per-game mark. Last season, 17 players operated at above the point-per-game mark and 23 players the year before that, so if you are looking at the grand scheme of things there might only be two maybe three players on a typical 12-team fantasy squad that is really capable of tallying above the point-per-game and not five or six as many of you are probably expecting.
  • Of those players 21 players all of them were essentially playing on their team's top-line, so if you own someone that interchanges between second line/top-line duties (Alex Semin/Ryan Kesler), there is a high chance that they won't achieve the point-per-game mark that you may be expecting.
  • Of those 21 players only Mike Green was the only defenseman to tally above the point-per-game mark.

 

2)   Team depth is vitally important; a player playing on the third line isn't going to be a candidate for 80 points, or even 60 according to the numbers below. Pay attention to the potential line combos released as part of the pre-season Dobber guide.

 

3)   Salary plays a large role in ice-time distribution, and generally speaking if a team is forking out six million or higher in salary for a player, they are going to receive optimal ice-time. In the salary cap era of the NHL, teams will be very hard-pressed to stick a player making bucket-loads of cash on a checking line.

o    A perfect example of this is what the Oilers did with Shawn Horcoff. They didn't green li