Projections, Projections we All Love Our Projections (2010)

Ryan Ma




Sorry for the brief hiatus the last couple of weeks, I've been roughing it in Europe and enjoying some time off. Anyways, back this week with a ripper of an article. At the end of last season I wrote a similar column which was very well received by my fellow Dobberites, so I figured I'd go back to the well once again this off-season. It's a great add-on to give you a decent recap of what went on this past fantasy season and what to expect for the upcoming season especially if you are trying to get a head start on your competition next campaign.


First, let’s clear up some general misconceptions about projections:


  1. First of all we need to place a realistic value on overall point production.
  • This past season saw only 21 players achieve the greater than point-per-game mark. Last season, 17 players operated at above the point-per-game mark and 23 players the year before that, so if you are looking at the grand scheme of things there might only be two maybe three players on a typical 12-team fantasy squad that is really capable of tallying above the point-per-game and not five or six as many of you are probably expecting.
  • Of those players 21 players all of them were essentially playing on their team's top-line, so if you own someone that interchanges between second line/top-line duties (Alex Semin/Ryan Kesler), there is a high chance that they won't achieve the point-per-game mark that you may be expecting.
  • Of those 21 players only Mike Green was the only defenseman to tally above the point-per-game mark.


2)   Team depth is vitally important; a player playing on the third line isn't going to be a candidate for 80 points, or even 60 according to the numbers below. Pay attention to the potential line combos released as part of the pre-season Dobber guide.


3)   Salary plays a large role in ice-time distribution, and generally speaking if a team is forking out six million or higher in salary for a player, they are going to receive optimal ice-time. In the salary cap era of the NHL, teams will be very hard-pressed to stick a player making bucket-loads of cash on a checking line.

o    A perfect example of this is what the Oilers did with Shawn Horcoff. They didn't green li