August 26, 2010

Jeff Angus

2010-08-26

 

I am up in Castlegar, BC this week helping to run a hockey camp. I don’t have internet/computer access most of the day, so if something happens, I’ll update it around 3:30 PM PST/6:30 PM EST.

 

Why does our Pool Guide rock? Because we can update it every day with trades and signings. Expect the guide to be updated with the Mitchell signing, the Torres signing, and so on.

 

Buy the Guide here.

 

I don't often post rumors or speculation on this site or my twitter account, but I did the other day. I have a decent connection with the Canucks organization, so I posted some things he passed along to me, as I have done from time to time.

 

One was the trade of Kevin Bieksa. There are some in the Vancouver media speculating that Bieksa may stick around with Salo out (if he is on the Long-Term Injured Reserve, the team can use his $3.5 million to pay for a replacement).

 

However, once Salo returns, he counts against the cap once again. Bieksa is also the only right handed shot. I personally think this is an overrated attribute, even as a defenseman (breaking out on the forehand is obviously infinitely easier compared to the backhand).

 

Another was removing the "C" from Luongo and giving it to Henrik Sedin. I am confident that this will happen at some point before October. Luongo is the leader of the team, but he doesn't need all of the extra pressure from the media that comes with wearing the letter. He gets enough of it as a goalie.

 

Ryan Kesler is the choice of many, but I don't think he's a good fit. When he is at his best he is an aggravating POS to play against, and his style of play doesn't endear himself to referees, either.

 

The Sedins (and Henrik, in particular) have really taken over as the leaders of this team. They work extremely hard each off-season to improve (a career year AFTER signing a big contract says all you need to know), and they have handled an insane amount of pressure from Vancouver media and fans ever since being drafted over a decade ago.

 

The Kings have signed Willie Mitchell. He got the term from them (two years) that no other team was willing to offer. He also didn't have to take a pay cut (he is going to make $3.5 million per season, the same total he has made in Vancouver over the last four years).

 

Mitchell has zero fantasy value unless your league counts poke-check takeaways, but he will help whoever is his partner (Johnson is my guess at even strength) and goalie immensely. He is a risk with his concussion issues, but when healthy he is one of the best and most reliable defensive defensemen in the league.

 

Johnson will feel more comfortable jumping into the rush, and his plus-minus will probably improve by about 10 or 15 if he plays with Mitchell most of the time.

 

Los Angeles probably overpaid for Mitchell considering the circumstances, but they a) really needed a top four defenseman, and b) had enough cap space to justify it. A top four of Doughty, Johnson, Mitchell, and Scuderi isn't bad at all. Greene will be back in November or December, and the team hopes Thomas Hickey is ready to step up and earn a spot in the top six as well.

 

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The Raffi Torres signing is an interesting one. He will probably slot in on the third line. Torres has a good shot and he is a physical presence. With Burrows out until November, the Canucks may want some grit in their top six. Torres could slide up to skate with Kesler and Raymond on the second line.

 

I think Torres is going to get more power play time than many think. The Canucks love having a net presence on both power play units, and they gave Steve Bernier about 50 chances to stick in this role (he never succeeded). If Torres sees some time on the top unit, he'll see some grade A scoring chances.

 

When Burrows returns, look for Torres to skate on the third line with Cody Hodgson and Manny Malhotra.

 

The NHLPA has officially hired Donald Fehr as the Executive Director. I won't get into this in great detail, but obviously as a fan this isn't good.

 

Steve Downie re-signed with Tampa Bay yesterday – two years, approximately $1.8 million per. Look for the other good young RFA's to continue to get locked up.

 

Downie thrived under coach Rick Tocchet, but I wouldn't expect any huge regression under Guy Boucher. Downie is a player who has never been given enough credit for his offensive abilities.

 

He will always play on the edge and he should be considered a lock for 150+ PIM each season. I'm not sure he'll ever be more than a 25 goal scorer, but he is a great playmaker. I could see him hitting the 60 point mark at some point over the next three years.

 

Justin Bourne raised a great point on twitter yesterday and I want to expand on it a bit. Do any of you expect Stamkos to score 50 again? Why or why not?

 

Projections in general are tough, but Stamkos is a great example of a very difficult projection to make. No one expected 50 from him last season, so they are pegging him for a drop to 40 in 2010-11. Why?

 

On the other hand, some are expecting him to score 60. The classic argument " he is so young" is often bandied about. With Stamkos, it is easy to see why he scores so many goals. He combines smarts, speed, and a shot that makes Steven Strasburg's fastball look show.

 

I personally have Stamkos at 47 goals. My reasoning for the slight decline is that teams will have a better idea of how to play against Stamkos in 2010-11. I also think Lecavalier bounces back a bit, and with Gagne now in the fold the Lightning will have two strong lines to throw out in offensive situations.

 

Randy Jones signed with the Lightning yesterday. This really hurts Matt Lashoff, a player who I really liked as a sleeper pick in deeper leagues for this coming season. Jones is an adventure in his own zone (just ask Jonathan Quick), but he is capable of chipping in offensively on the second power play unit.

 

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