Looking Ahead – Week 5
Dave Poleck
2010-11-05
I almost feel like this is the beginning of the part two of the regular season for this article; the info that determines the score indicator that you see has went through the first update and is no longer based on some of our preseason projections. For the rest of the season, I will be updating this on a monthly basis, unless a major injury causes a drastic change in a certain team. Anyways, let's get down to business.
Upon taking my normal approach of analyzing each team's upcoming schedule and, as I've done recently, integrating Jason Arbuthnot's absolutely fantastic fantasy tool, the Frozen Pool Game Planner, I came across something that I thought was important enough to make it the main focus of my article this week. The difference between some team's goals against at home vs. the road is pretty staggering.
I know that this is a somewhat subjective or arbitrary exercise because, for instance, teams like Carolina and Long Island have played twice as many games on the road that they have at home. But it is still something all poolies should take into account when making their weekly choices.
So I put together a little chart that displays the goals against allowed by every team while at home and on the road. The last two columns represent the difference; so Pittsburgh has 0.54 more goals allowed per game at home. This has been updated as of Thursday night's games.
I have already pointed out on numerous occasions the struggles that the Ducks are having away from home (1.15 more goals per game on the road), but they are not alone – check out the Canadiens. Through six games both at home and on the road, they have allowed an average of 1.33 more goals per game in Montreal. The Leafs have shown opposite trends, allowing only 13 goals in seven games at the ACC, but 17 in only five away from there.
And while no one should honestly be complaining if they have Tim Thomas or Jaroslav Halak, check out the difference that the Bruins and Blues have at home vs on the road. Halak's 2-0 at Scottrade didn't hurt things last night. And how about those Canucks? They've allowed 19 goals in six games on the road but only 7 in six games in Vancouver.
| HOME | ROAD | |||||||
| Games | GA | Games | GA | |||||
| Phi | 9 | 22 | 2.44 | 4 | 8 | 2.00 | 0.44 | Home |
| Pit | 6 | 17 | 2.83 | 7 | 16 | 2.29 | 0.54 | Home |
| NJ | 5 | 20 | 4.00 | 9 | 25 | 2.78 | 1.22 | Home |
| NYR | 6 | 20 | 3.33 | 6 | 16 | 2.67 | 0.66 | Home |
| NYI | 4 | 13 | 3.25 | 9 | 34 | 3.78 | 0.53 | Road |
| Bos | 4 | 9 | 2.25 | 5 | 4 | 0.80 | 1.45 | Home |
| Buf | 6 | 22 | 3.67 | 7 | 21 | 3.00 | 0.67 | Home |
| Mon | 6 | 18 | 3.00 | 6 | 10 | 1.67 | 1.33 | Home |
| Ott | 7 | 20 | 2.86 | 6 | 21 | 3.50 | 0.64 | Road |
| Tor | 7 | 13 | 1.86 | 5 | 17 | 3.40 | 1.54 | Road |
| Atl | 5 | 17 | 3.40 | 8 | 28 | 3.50 | 0.1 | Road |
| Car | 4 | 9 | 2.25 | 8 | 26 | 3.25 | 1 | Road |
| Fla | 4 | 11 | 2.75 | 6 | 14 | 2.33 | 0.42 | Home |
| TB | 5 | 17 | 3.40 | 7 | 17 | 2.43 | 0.97 | Home |
| Wash | 6 | 15 | 2.50 | 6 | 14 | 2.33 | 0.17 | Home |
| Chi | 9 | 28 | 3.11 | 6 | 17 | 2.83 | 0.28 | Home |
| CBJ | 7 | 18 | 2.57 | 5 | 11 | 2.20 | 0.37 | Home |
| Det | 6 | 16 | 2.67 | 4 | 8 | 2.00 | 0.67 | Home |
| Nas | 6 | 15 | 2.50 | 5 | 14 | 2.80 | 0.3 | Road |
| StL | 6 | 7 | 1.17 | 4 | 9 | 2.25 | 1.08 | Road |
| Cal | 8 | 26 | 3.25 | 4 | 10 | 2.50 | 0.75 | Home |
| Col | 5 | 17 | 3.40 | 7 | 25 | 3.57 | 0.17 | Road |
| Edm | 5 | 16 | 3.20 | 5 | 19 | 3.80 | 0.6 | Road |
| Min | 8 | 17 | 2.13 | 3 | 8 | 2.67 | 0.54 | Road |
| Van | 6 | 7 | 1.17 | 6 | 19 | 3.17 | 2 | Road |
| Ana | 5 | 13 | 2.60 | 8 | 30 | 3.75 | 1.15 | Road |
| Dal | 7 | 16 | 2.29 | 4 | 13 | 3.25 | 0.96 | Road |
| LAK | 5 | 7 | 1.40 | 7 | 19 | 2.71 | 1.31 | Road |
| Pho | 6 | 17 | 2.83 | 5 | 15 | 3.00 | 0.17 | Road |
| SJ | 5 | 16 | 3.20 | 6 | 12 | 2.00 | 1.2 | Home |
| Friday November 5 to Thursday November 11, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Detroit 4.26 – four games @EDM, @VAN, PHO, EDM | ||||||
| Carolina 4.17 – four games @FLA, FLA, EDM, PHI | ||||||
| Phoenix 4.03 – four games @DAL, PIT, @DET, @CHI | ||||||
| St. Louis 3.97 – four games @BOS, @NYR, @CBJ, NAS | ||||||
| Buffalo 3.96 – four games MON, @TOR, @NJ, @NYR | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| New Jersey 1.73 – two games NYR, BUF | ||||||
| Colorado 1.89 – two games DAL, CAL | ||||||
| Columbus 1.91 – two games MIN, STL | ||||||
| LA 1.95 – two games NAS, DAL | ||||||
| Calgary 2.16 – two games @MIN, @COL | ||||||
| Saturday November 6 to Friday November 12, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.18 – four games @SJ, TOR, @WAS, @PIT | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.00 – four games NAS, @SJ, NYI, DAL | ||||||
| St. Louis 3.97 – four games @BOS, @NYR, @CBJ, NAS | ||||||
| Edmonton 3.93 – four games @CHI, @CAR, @DET, @NJ | ||||||
| Phoenix 3.74 – four games PIT, @DET, @CHI, CAL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| LA 1.95 – two games NAS, DAL | ||||||
| Calgary 1.96 – two games @COL, PHO | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.00 – two games BUF, EDM | ||||||
| NY Rangers 2.70 – three games STL, WAS, BUF | ||||||
| Montreal 2.78 – three games OTT, VAN, @BOS | ||||||
| Sunday November 7 to Saturday November 13, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.00 – four games NAS, @SJ, NYI, DAL | ||||||
| St. Louis 3.97 – four games @BOS, @NYR, @CBJ, NAS | ||||||
| Edmonton 3.93 – four games @CHI, @CAR, @DET, @NJ | ||||||
| Washington 3.89 – four games PHI, @NYR, TB, @BUF | ||||||
| Phoenix 3.68 – four games @DET, @CHI, CAL, STL | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Columbus 1.86 – two games STL, COL | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.00 – two games BUF, EDM | ||||||
| LA 2.11 – two games DAL, NYI | ||||||
| Dallas 2.12 – two games @LA, @ANA | ||||||
| Minnesota 2.25 – two games @ATL, @FLA | ||||||
| Monday November 8 to Sunday November 14, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.21 – four games @SJ, NYI, DAL, @CHI | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.06 – four games TOR, @WAS, @PIT, MIN | ||||||
| Washington 4.02 – four games @NYR, TB, @BUF, ATL | ||||||
| Edmonton 3.95 – four games @CAR, @DET, @NJ, @NYR | ||||||
| Atlanta 3.95 – four games @OTT, MIN, PIT, @WAS | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Nashville 1.90 – two games @STL, CHI | ||||||
| Columbus 1.90 – two games STL, COL | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.00 – two games BUF, EDM | ||||||
| Philadelphia 2.05 – two games @CAR, FLA | ||||||
| LA 2.11 – two games DAL, NYI | ||||||
| Tuesday November 9 to Monday November 15, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.22 – four games @MON, @OTT, @TOR, @BUF | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.21 – four games @SJ, NYI, DAL, @CHI | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.06 – four games TOR, @WAS, @PIT, MIN | ||||||
| Washington 4.02 – four games @NYR, TB, @BUF, ATL | ||||||
| NY Rangers 4.02 – four games WAS, BUF, EDM, @PIT | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Nashville 1.90 – two games @STL, CHI | ||||||
| Columbus 1.90 – two games STL, COL | ||||||
| Dallas 2.12 – two games @LA, @ANA | ||||||
| Detroit 2.20 – two games EDM, COL | ||||||
| Montreal 2.71 – three games VAN, @BOS, CAR | ||||||
| Wednesday November 10 to Tuesday November 16, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.31 – four games NYI, DAL, @CHI, @DAL | ||||||
| Philadelphia 4.02 – four games @CAR, FLA, OTT, @MON | ||||||
| St. Louis 3.97 – four games @CBJ, NAS, @PHO, @COL | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 3.92 – four games BOS, TB, @ATL, NYR | ||||||
| Boston 3.80 – four games @PIT, OTT, MON, NJ | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Columbus 1.90 – two games STL, COL | ||||||
| Carolina 1.92 – two games PHI, @MON | ||||||
| Calgary 1.96 – two games @PHO, @SJ | ||||||
| Detroit 2.20 – two games EDM, COL | ||||||
| Montreal 2.77 – three games @BOS, CAR, PHI | ||||||
| Thursday November 11 to Wednesday November 17, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Minnesota 4.45 – four games @ATL, @FLA, @TB, ANA | ||||||
| Vancouver 4.28 – four games @OTT, @TOR, @BUF, @PIT | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.18 – four games DAL, @CHI, @DAL, @MIN | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.16 – four games @WAS, @PIT, MIN, @NYI | ||||||
| LA 4.11 – four games DAL, NYI, @SJ, CBJ | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Toronto 1.71 – two games VAN, NAS | ||||||
| Columbus 2.03 – two games COL, @LA | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.06 – two games EDM, @BOS | ||||||
| Montreal 2.77 – three games @BOS, CAR, PHI | ||||||
| Calgary 2.78 – three games @PHO, @SJ, PHO | ||||||
| Friday November 12 to Thursday November 18, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.18 – four games DAL, @CHI, @DAL, @MIN | ||||||
| San Jose 4.14 – four games CAL, LA, @COL, @Dal | ||||||
| Tampa Bay 4.13 – four games @PIT, MIN, @NYI, @PHI | ||||||
| Philadelphia 4.03 – four games FLA, OTT, @MON, TB | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 3.96 – four games TB, @ATL, NYR, VAN | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Detroit 1.90 – two games COL, STL | ||||||
| Carolina 1.98 – two games @MON, OTT | ||||||
| Columbus 2.03 – two games COL, @LA | ||||||
| NYI 2.05 – two games @LA, TB | ||||||
| Toronto 2.57 – two games VAN, NAS, NJ | ||||||
| Saturday November 13 to Friday November 19, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| Chicago 4.30 – four games @NAS, ANA, @EDM, @CAL | ||||||
| NY Rangers 4.20 – four games EDM, @PIT, BOS, @COL | ||||||
| San Jose 4.14 – four games CAL, LA, @COL, @Dal | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.09 – four games @CHI, @DAL, @MIN, CBJ | ||||||
| Philadelphia 4.03 – four games FLA, OTT, @MON, TB | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Dallas 1.97 – two games ANA, SJ | ||||||
| NYI 2.05 – two games @LA, TB | ||||||
| New Jersey 2.11 – two games @BOS, @TOR | ||||||
| Columbus 2.12 – two games @LA, @ANA | ||||||
| Toronto 2.57 – two games VAN, NAS, NJ | ||||||
| Sunday November 14 to Saturday November 20, 2010 | ||||||
| Best Bets | ||||||
| NY Rangers 5.14 – five games EDM, @PIT, BOS, @COL, @MIN | ||||||
| Chicago 4.30 – four games @NAS, ANA, @EDM, @CAL | ||||||
| San Jose 4.14 – four games CAL, LA, @COL, @Dal | ||||||
| Anaheim 4.09 – four games @CHI, @DAL, @MIN, CBJ | ||||||
| Philadelphia 4.09 – four games OTT, @MON, TB, @WAS | ||||||
| Steer Clear | ||||||
| Detroit 1.71 – two games STL, MIN | ||||||
| Calgary 1.77 – two games PHO, CHI | ||||||
| NYI 2.06 – two games TB, FLA | ||||||
| Phoenix 2.33 – two games @CAL, @EDM | ||||||
| Pittsburgh 2.69 – three games NYR, VAN, CAR |
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