Looking Ahead – Week 5

Dave Poleck




I almost feel like this is the beginning of the part two of the regular season for this article; the info that determines the score indicator that you see has went through the first update and is no longer based on some of our preseason projections. For the rest of the season, I will be updating this on a monthly basis, unless a major injury causes a drastic change in a certain team. Anyways, let's get down to business.


Upon taking my normal approach of analyzing each team's upcoming schedule and, as I've done recently, integrating Jason Arbuthnot's absolutely fantastic fantasy tool, the Frozen Pool Game Planner, I came across something that I thought was important enough to make it the main focus of my article this week. The difference between some team's goals against at home vs. the road is pretty staggering.


I know that this is a somewhat subjective or arbitrary exercise because, for instance, teams like Carolina and Long Island have played twice as many games on the road that they have at home. But it is still something all poolies should take into account when making their weekly choices.


So I put together a little chart that displays the goals against allowed by every team while at home and on the road. The last two columns represent the difference; so Pittsburgh has 0.54 more goals allowed per game at home. This has been updated as of Thursday night's games.


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I have already pointed out on numerous occasions the struggles that the Ducks are having away from home (1.15 more goals per game on the road), but they are not alone – check out the Canadiens. Through six games both at home and on the road, they have allowed an average of 1.33 more goals per game in Montreal. The Leafs have shown opposite trends, allowing only 13 goals in seven games at the ACC, but 17 in only five away from there.


And while no one should honestly be complaining if they have Tim Thomas or Jaroslav Halak, check out the difference that the Bruins and Blues have at home vs on the road. Halak's 2-0 at Scottrade didn't hurt things last night. And how about those Canucks? They've allowed  19 goals in six games on the road but only 7 in six games in Vancouver.