Making Not-So-Bold Predictions

Justin Goldman

2011-08-22

Hiller

 

Being a solid fantasy goalie manager stems from your ability to understand and evaluate three different elements: circumstance, situation and statistical probability. Goaltending is a game of inches both on and off the ice, yet things happen so fast that you have to make informed decisions even faster when goalie news hits the almighty interwebs.

 

That's especially true during and following your league's draft. Someone snags a goalie you wanted? Everything changes. All of a sudden you're re-strategizing and playing out a myriad of different situations in your head. But you have to focus on what you can control – goalies that are still available – and evaluate your choices in an informed and quick manner. It's not an easy thing to do.

 

When October finally hits, 60 goaltenders will be on a mission to meet certain fantasy expectations. But since they're all prone to getting picked off by different forms of unfortunate, unforeseen circumstances, many will fail. For those that are afflicted, they will emit either a positive or negative charge on the goalies around them, thus potentially changing the state of your specific fantasy team's situation.

 

Simply put, when something happens to a goalie, it might change your approach and shift your original expectations. You either choose to act on the change, or you play through it. Either way, when it happens, you have to not only recognize it, but be ready for it. This seems like a simple formula on the surface, but you can imagine just how many factors come into play. It's an unstable, chaotic, maddening world, which is the precise reason why consistent fantasy performers like Henrik Lundqvist or Carey Price are so valuable.

 

Knowing this, the worst mistake you could possibly make on draft day is to not expect the unexpected. You need to have a plan.

 

Now I'm not one to nag, but if you don't already have some predictions in place for who might be this year's James Reimer or Sergei Bobrovsky, you're slacking. Need to catch up? Ask yourself exactly what NHL teams have the most unstable goalie situations right now. What kind of impact will certain guys have if injuries hit? More importantly, when might it happen, and how will you act (if you need to)?

 

Well, hopefully after seeing how I evaluate two unstable situations and came up with two "not-so-bold" predictions, you will be able to make better decisions on your own. Just remember the laws of circumstance and situation and you'll be more successful than ever before with your goalies!

 

I'd also like to finish my intro by pointing you to a couple of choice tweets