April 14, 2013

Dobber Sports

2013-04-13

We’re down to the wire in this lock-out shortened regular season. The race for the final playoff spot in both conferences is going to be hard fought and wil likely come right down to the last game of the year, especially in the East. The Rangers (44 points), Jets (44 points) and Islanders (46 points) are all in a dog fight for 8th spot, while the Devils (40 points) could be a factor if they could only get things turned around.

 

Things are less uncertain in the West. Dallas, Phoenix and Columbus are all two points within 8th placed Detroit, but two of those clubs sold at the deadline (PHX and DAL) while the Blue Jackets are overly reliant on the unusually superb goaltending of Sergei Bobrovsky (.931 SV!). The Red Wings aren’t the Wings of old, but still boast Henrik Zetteberg and Pavel Datsyuk, two of the best two-way forwards in the game. Unless something goes vert wrong, they are favorites to hang on in the West.

 

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The race to the bottom of the standings is just as neck-and-neck. The Calgary Flames (34 points), Colorado Avalanche (34 points after an afternoon win) and Florida Panthers (32 points) have been joined by the Carolina Hurricanes (34 points) in the basement. I mentioned the Canes last week as a club getting submarined by their wretched goaltending. That unfortunate trend has continued unabated, causing Carolina to lose seven in a row and boast the worst record over the last 10 games in the whole league (1-9-0). Even the Avs and Flames have managed to win three of their last 10.

 

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Speaking of the Flames, the hockey gods are doing their best to help Calgary pick inside the top-5 for the first time in franchise history. After selling Jarome Iginla and Jay Bouwmeester at the deadline, the club has been hit by a swatch of injuries, including Alex Tanguay who went down with a knee injury (sprained MCL) in the Flames win over the Coyotes on Friday night. Of course, clubs are much more apt to sit players during a “dive for five” for just about any reason, but the Flames have seen guys like Matt Stajan and Tanguay go down with legitimate ailments.

 

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Back to the ‘Canes for a moment – I have been tracking their descent with amusement ever since they bafflingly sold low on Jussi Jokinen; a player much better than his counting stats suggested this season as has been mentioned in this space by me previously. Since joining the Penguins, Jokinen has scored three goals and five points in just three games and has actually been one of the best deadline additions by any team so far. The Canes are, well…in on the race for Seth Jones/Nathan MacKinnon.

 

Which isn’t to say the lack of Jokinen is the reason the Hurricanes have been losing lately, but it’s amusingly ironic nonetheless. Unless you’re a Carolina fan, no doubt.

 

 

 

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The Edmonton Oilers are going to miss the playoffs again, but it’s not because their young players are faltering. Taylor Hall in particular is rounding into a high impact player: he leads Edmonton in raw corsi (+3.66/60), is second in relative corsi (+22.5/60) and leads them in scoring with 41 points in 37 games (a 90 point pace over an 82 game schedule). He torched the Calgary Flames the last time the two teams met and is a good bet to do so again tonight, particularly with the Flames essentially dressing the AHL Heat as their starting roster.

 

The Oilers still haven’t arrived as a contender, but Taylor Hall is a legitimate fantasy rock star…

 

 

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…and Hall’s rising star may be why the league decided to turn the other cheek when it comes to his eye-brow riasing slash on Zybnek Michalek on April 10th. The slash wasn’t even penalized on the ice, let alone followed up with a fine or suspension, altough it was certainly worthy of one (if not both). Just more evidence the NHL still isn’t really sure how to conduct itself when it comes to supplementary discipline.

 

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Looks like I spoke to soon re: the Flames losing to the Oilers. Despite featuring a rookie heavy line-up, Calgary outshot Edmonton 38-29 last night and beat them 4-1. Although that doesn’t help the Flames draft position and the Oilers are a little further down the road in terms of their rebuild, the win must still be encouraging for Flames fans (and a punch to the gut for Oilers fans).

 

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Speaking of aforementioned bottom feeders, Carolina also managed to win last night, 4-2 over the Boston Bruins. Surprise star Jiri Tlusty grabbed his 18th and 19th goals of the season, marking his career high in just 41 games. A former first rounder of the Leafs in 2006, it’s taken Tlusty a long time to become a regular in the NHL, which is why his outburst this season is so unexpected.

 

It is also unlikely to be repeated next year. Tlusty is enjoying a personal shooting percentage of 18.4%, well above his career average of 13.3%. He also has a PDO of 104.9 (on-ice SV% +SH%), which is the highest on the team. PDO is more or less a measure of how lucky a player has been and tends to heavily regress to the league mean of 100. Tlusty was a 17-goal scorer for Carolina last year and will probably be a top-6 option going forward so he’s not useless from a fantasy perspective, but don’t expect him to replicate this sort of output next year if you target him in your draft in the off-season.

 

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Steve Yzerman made a bit of gamble in acquiring Ben Bishiop for Corey Conacher at the deadline and thus far it has not paid off for the Lightning. Bishop was pulled in Tampa’s 6-5 loss to Washington yesterday after allowing three goals on 20 shots. Bishop has lost all but two of his six starts for the Lightning, although he still sports an above average ES SV% of .927 on the season.

 

It’s hard to know if the ex-Senator will work out long term for Tampa since goalies tend to be harder to predict than skaters. The 26-year old is huge at 6’7″, but has an uneven record in the past. A former third round pick of the Blues way back in 2005, Bishop spent a lot of years putting up just okay numbers in the AHL before ultimately compiling a .928 save rate in 38 games for Peoria in 2011-12. If that performance, and what he’s managed in the show this season, is an accurate representation of his abilities, Yzerman has a new starter on his hands. If not, the search will continue.

 

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Taylor Hall may have escaped justice for his slash, but Charlie Coyle will definitely face a Shanaban for this hit on Artem Anisimov last night. Anisimov never returned after being run over and it’s a good bet he’ll be on the shelf for awhile – bad news for Anisimov owners and for the Blue Jackets, who are continuing to make their unlikely charge for the post-season after beating the Wild in a shoot-out last night.

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