Forensics: Jaden Schwartz

Tom Collins

2014-01-17

Jaden Schwartz is having a breakout season. Can he keep it up?

It's never easy to trade a young guy in a keeper pool, and it's even harder to trade a young guy with a great cap hit in a salary cap league.

But last week, I made a deal in a cap league that saw me trade Jaden Schwartz. It wasn't an easy move, as Schwartz is having a great season. However, Henrik Lundqvist was coming back and goalie help was needed as Braydon Holtby and Ondrej Pavelec weren't getting it done. (For the record, the complete deal was Jaden Schwartz, Jakub Voracek and Michael Del Zotto for Henrik Lundqvist, Carl Hagelin and Jamie McBain.)

I'm still wondering if it was the right move. Schwartz is one of the best left wingers in the league this season, despite going the last five games without a point. Plus, with his low cap hit — just $830,000 this season — Schwartz is one of the best bargains in cap leagues. He's one of seven Blues to already hit the 30-point mark as he has 15 goals and 32 points.

Why is the soon-to-be-RFA having such a great season, and can he keep up this pace?

Let's start by looking at his linemates this season, according to Frozen Pool.

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
22.63%	EV	21 BERGLUND,PATRIK – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
14.88%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
14%	EV	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
6.92%	EV	74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR
4.97%	EV	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – 25 STEWART,CHRIS
3.76%	SH	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR
2.22%	EV	21 BERGLUND,PATRIK – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 25 STEWART,CHRIS
1.95%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 20 STEEN,ALEXANDER
1.58%	EV	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR
1.48%	PP	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
1.44%	EV	74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 20 STEEN,ALEXANDER
1.31%	EV	12 ROY,DEREK – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 25 STEWART,CHRIS

Schwartz has been playing with quite a few line combinations, mostly because of injuries. Vladimir Tarasenko was his regular line mate until Alexander Steen went down with a concussion 12 games ago, allowing Schwartz to start playing on the top line.

Just look at Schwartz's last 10 games before last night's game, courtesy of Frozen Pool.

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
43.44%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
22.7%	EV	74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR
5.12%	PP	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
3.67%	EV	21 BERGLUND,PATRIK – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
2.23%	PP	74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR
1.44%	SH	21 BERGLUND,PATRIK – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
1.44%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 25 STEWART,CHRIS
1.31%	EV	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
1.31%	SH	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR
1.31%	SH	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
1.18%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
1.18%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
1.05%	PP	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 12 ROY,DEREK – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
1.05%	EV	21 BERGLUND,PATRIK – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

That trend continued last night.

Games between 2014-01-16 and 2014-01-16
Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
63.89%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN 📢 advertisement:
8.33%	SH	42 BACKES,DAVID – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
5.56%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
5.56%	PP	42 BACKES,DAVID – 74 OSHIE,T.J. – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN
2.78%	EV	9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN – 17 SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – 91 TARASENKO,VLADIMIR
2.78%	EV	42 BACKES,DAVID – 75 REAVES,RYAN – 9 SCHWARTZ,JADEN

Schwartz is definitely being given an opportunity to shine, and it did pay off for a while. Schwartz went on a season-high eight-game point streak from Dec. 19 to Jan. 4, scoring goals in six straight during that streak as well.

He has cooled off lately, with no points in his last five games, but as long as the Blues are winning, Schwartz should be safe in his position until Steen returns from injury.

One of the best aspects of Schwartz's season is that he is showing his versatility with any line combination. Just have a look at his point production:

Total Points for Jaden Schwartz : 31
Str	On Ice Line Combination	Points	%Total Points
EV	BERGLUND,PATRIK – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	7	22.58%
EV	SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	5	16.13%
EV	BACKES,DAVID – OSHIE,T.J. – SCHWARTZ,JADEN	3	9.68%
EV	SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR	2	6.45%
PP	OSHIE,T.J. – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR	2	6.45%
EV	SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – STEWART,CHRIS	2	6.45%
EV	OSHIE,T.J. – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR	2	6.45%
SH	SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR	1	3.23%
PP	OSHIE,T.J. – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	1	3.23%
EV	BERGLUND,PATRIK – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – STEWART,CHRIS	1	3.23%
PP	BERGLUND,PATRIK – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR	1	3.23%
EV	OSHIE,T.J. – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – STEEN,ALEXANDER	1	3.23%
EV	BERGLUND,PATRIK – SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR	1	3.23%
PP	SCHWARTZ,JADEN – SOBOTKA,VLADIMIR – STEEN,ALEXANDER – STEWART,CHRIS	1	3.23%
EV	BERGLUND,PATRIK – ROY,DEREK – STEWART,CHRIS	1	3.23%

Since Steen has been injured, Schwartz is averaging 19:03 minutes a game and has played at least 18 minutes in nine of 11 games. Before the Steen injury, Schwartz averaged 16:30 per game, and played at least 18 minutes in just three of 32 games.

Schwartz has the confidence of the coaches, as he is still being counted on during his recent slump.

There is some cause for concern for Schwartz's projections over the rest of the season, mainly the impact of a healthy Steen comes back. The odds are Schwartz gets bumped down the depth chart when Steen returns. This will result in less ice time and less quality linemates. His points should take a hit. Not a huge hit — he did have 25 points in 33 games before the Steen concussion — but it is questionable to count on a second or third line player to keep getting points at that pace.

Another concern is Schwartz's lack of power play time and production. Schwartz has averaged just 1:27 of power play ice time per game, ninth amongst Blues forwards, and has only managed three power play points this season. That's not very good on a team that is second in the league in powerplay goals.

For those in pools with deeper categories, Schwartz is dynamite in one of them: plus/minus. At plus-22, Schwartz is ninth in the league and last night was the first night Schwartz was a minus in 25 games.

However, Schwartz lacks any type of a peripheral game. He has just 36 hits and 24 blocked shots in 44 games. He also has just 15 penalty minutes, which is great if you're a Blues fan, but not great for fantasy hockey players.

Overall though, the 21-year-old is exceeding everyone's expectations in his sophomore season. In leagues that use positions, Schwartz's value increases even more. His 15 goals are 12^th among NHL left wingers and his 32 points places him sit at 17^th.

If he keeps this up, Schwartz should be in line for a decent pay raise this summer. And that makes trading him in a cap league a little more palatable.

Previously in Forensics:

Bryzgalov and Dubnyk

Eric Staal

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