February 6, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-02-06

Dobber here with an update – Martin St. Louis has been named by Team Canada to replace Stamkos. Well deserved and the way he stepped up his game when he wasn’t initially named speaks to the attitude and commitment he will bring to the dressing room. As a Canadian, I’m very happy with this decision.

 

Interesting note in the comments below regarding Alex Stalock. He is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent if he does not play at least 30 minute a game for 14 more regular season or playoff games. It indicates that there is a lot more starts ahead for Stalock…

 

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The big news making the rounds yesterday was that Steven Stamkos has ruled himself out of the Sochi Olympics. What a shame but it's what's best for everyone involved. Who do you think replaces Stamkos?

 

The names I've seen thrown around are Claude Giroux, Martin St. Louis, James Neal and Eric Staal. I'd like to throw Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall out there as options. Seguin, in particular, makes for an intriguing replacement given his righty shot and sniping ability. That said, I'm really just paying lip service to some long shots because I think St. Louis is the choice. He's a natural winger and an absolute dog but it's Canada there is no wrong choice.

 

By the way, I’m picking up a Team Canada Olympic jersey in the next couple of days. Who do you think I should get? 

 

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So, rivalry night, eh? Not sure what the Sabres-Penguins game was doing in there. Peanut butter and jelly have a better rivalry than those two right now.

 

As you'd expect the Penguins skated circles around the Sabres for much of the night. I was impressed with the Linus OmarkTyler EnnisDrew Stafford line as they generated the bulk of the Sabres' chances –the few there were – and generated the lone goal.

 

Omark didn't skate much – just 14:27 – but at least he was in the lineup skating with some talent in the top six. I'm not sure that there is room for Omark in the NHL though. Just doesn't have enough drive for a player his size. He's gifted, no question, but to succeed at the NHL you have to be about more than just skill.

 

Ennis is a great example. He's still finding his way at the NHL level but he's a player who is much more willing to go to the tough areas to make a play. Of course, he's most effective at center where he doesn't have to compete physically to the same degree but the will is what separates him more than the skill.

 

Ennis' second half explosion – one I thought was possible but questioned because of the lack of talent in Buffalo – has continued. He's scored 13 points in the last 15 games and makes for a great pickup for your stretch run.

 

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Sabres fans, can I interest you in another reason to tear your hair out? According to Darcy Regier, the Sabres discussed a Thomas Vanek for Tyler Seguin trade. I have no idea what level of seriousness those talks reached or even when they took place but that's definitely one of those "what could have been" deals.

 

If that deal were consummated the Stars never add Seguin meaning Jamie Benn is still playing center instead of on the wing on one of the league's most dangerous lines. The Bruins also never get Reilly Smith, who might still be buried in the Stars' system. The Bruins may also be unable to sign Jarome Iginla because of Vanek's sizeable cap hit – who knows where Iginla lands instead.

 

More hypotheticals… The Sabres, with Seguin, might be competitive enough to save Regier his job. Or Seguin goes to Buffalo and flounders rather than thriving as he has in Dallas. The Islanders, unable to complete the Matt Moulson-Vanek trade find another way to shoot themselves in the foot.

 

I don't think I want to live in that universe but it sure is fun to think about.

 

 

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Kris Letang missed his fourth straight game with some unknown illness. Normally I'd joke about Letang having contracted some sort of STI but since the words is that this is an illness and not some unknown injury that might be too spot on so I'm taking this one the other way. Letang is hurt and the team doesn't want to list him as injured AGAIN so instead they've made up this phantom illness. Or maybe he's suffering from concussion-like symptoms and they don't want to label it a concussion because, you know, public perception.

 

Whatever the case, I'm so glad I traded him rather than having to deal with my own set of concussion-like symptoms.

 

Not that the Penguins need him anyway. Matt Niskanen is doing an excellent job of stepping into his place. I don't think Niskanen is as talented but on this team he doesn't need to be. He just needs to be able to make swift breakout passes and get what few shots he does get on goal. In a sense, less is more, which is something Letang could take a lesson from.

 

Sidney Crosby was his usual magical self. He's on pace for 111 points, which isn't all that remarkable in the grand scheme of annual scoring leaders but considering no one else is even on pace to clear 100, it's pretty darn impressive. I remember Justin Bourne's piece from last season on how far ahead of the pack Crosby's scoring was and how he rated all-time based on standard deviation. I'd be curious to see a similar study done for this season. I doubt the numbers would be quite as gaudy but still impressive nonetheless. He is, after all, the best player in the game.

 

Brian Gibbons has struck the jackpot getting to skate with Crosby. His production has been modest but considering that he's a player most still aren't aware of his nine points in 18 games are pretty darn impressive. I don't see him sticking on Crosby's wing for the remainder of this season – they'll trade for help – but this is a player who was coming into his own in the minors – scoring over a point per game – and has now fit in at the NHL level. I'll be curious to see if he can carve out a regular lineup spot in the coming years. At 5'8" he's a long shot but it's becoming more realistic.

 

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Blackhawks-Ducks! That's more like it.

 

Corey Crawford notched his first shutout of the season, against the Ducks no less. How many of you were scared off and sat Crawford? None, I hope, but you never know. I've sat my fair share of blankets over the years.

 

I only caught the last two periods of play but it didn't seem to me that Crawford had to work too hard in this one. The Blackhawks simply played a very sound game, especially on the penalty kill where they gave up five chances.

 

It shouldn't be too surprising that the Ducks' power play struggled though. They're 0/11 on power play chances since Nick Bonino went down in the Flyers game last week. That's great news for Bonino owners but not so great for everyone else who had been enjoying the Ducks' scorching power play in January.

 

I'd forgotten how frustrating it was to watch Andrew Cogliano. He could be a terror with his speed and frankly is when he wants to be. He was a one-man breakout machine for the Ducks exiting the zone and gaining the other blue line all on his own and got in behind the Blackhawks defense on a couple of occasions. He just doesn't have much in the way of finishing skills and it's why he'll never be more than a good depth player.

 

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Marian Hossa had himself a game for the Blackhawks with a goal and an assist. He flies under the radar given all the talent in Chicago but he has skills. I still remember his silly catch-and-shoot from a few years ago that made me wet the bed. Check out his patience on this goal:

 

 

Bryan Bickell was dead last on the Blackhawks for ice time. I still cannot believe that contract they signed him to. You just can't give bottom six talent that kind of money. Maybe his contract doesn't keep them from re-signing anyone but you think it's hindering them from adding that second line center they have been after?

 

And that's not to say Bickell is a bad player. He's a good player, just not one for the top six, where the money needs to be spent because those are the guys playing the big minutes, or rather more than nine minutes a night, which is how many Bickell skated last night.

 

That gets me thinking… How about this trade straight out of bat shit fantasy land? Sam Gagner for Bickell. Stupid, crazy, bat shit, insane but you can talk yourself into it if you add some futures to Bickell. I just like it because it's a chance to get Gagner on a winning team and to reunite him with his old London teammate Patrick Kane. And what the hell, the Oilers are already a doormat. They might as well embrace the role.

 

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If Marty Havlat and Scott Hannan each have two-point nights but they aren't on anyone's fantasy roster did that ever really happen?

 

Meanwhile, Joe Pavelski has come crashing down to earth. Not for lack of opportunity but Pavelski has just one goal in the last six games. He has been bumped off the top line but he's still on the top power play unit and centering the second line with Patrick Marleau shouldn't be so bad.

 

Dan Boyle's struggles have been even more worrisome. He's now scoreless in his last nine games. Depending on your league's add/drop rules he'd be on waivers for me but I'd keep an eye on him. I suspect that when Couture returns after the Olympic break the Sharks should pick up that juggernaut steam once again, which would be lucrative for Boyle even though he's clearly lost a step this season.

 

Alex Stalock got the start for the Sharks and did enough to win stopping 19 of the 20 shots he's faced. Stalock has made 20 or fewer stops in three of his last four starts, a credit to the defense the Sharks have played in front of him.

 

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I got a question a while back about whether or not I thought Stalock could challenge Antti Niemi for starts as the season wore on. My answer was an unequivocal no but here we are, Stalock has started four of the last eight games with only one of those on a back-to-back. I see this as simply the Sharks scaling Niemi's starts back prior to the Olympic break in order to have him rested for the stretch run. The Sharks will be battling for positioning the rest of the way so they'll need Niemi more often than not, even though Stalock has been solid when called upon.

 

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Valeri Nichushkin scored the lone goal for the Stars. He's already skating on the top line with Seguin and Jamie Benn but Nichushkin is only 11th on the team in power play ice time – 10th if you don't want to count Colton Sceviour's eight game cameo. Can you imagine how prolific Nichushkin will be in fantasy once he gets those consistent power play minutes. Yeah, I'm suggesting you buy – that is if the Nichushkin owner in your league isn't frothing at the mouth while snorting the Koolaid straight from the pack, which, frankly he probably is. But it's worth asking.

 

Trevor Daley notched an assist on Nichushkin's goal. He's like the Cogliano of defensemen. Brilliant skater, dog shit for fantasy value. He could also be the cautionary tale for Jake Gardiner, if you want to be a hater.

 

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Earlier this week Dobber commented on how Ovechkin always seems to get his shot off from the left slot. Well it just so happens Tyler Delow took a look at how it is Ovechkin does that and has some suggestions for how the Oilers could do the same.


Since the start of the 2012-13 season, Alex Ovechkin has scored 31 power play goals. He leads the NHL in this during this time. Chris Kunitz, who is second in that time period, has 21 power play goals. Ovechkin isn't just leading the league, he's crushing the competition.

 

I am a big fan of assessing the X's and O's on the power play because it's the one area of hockey where they game becomes less fluid and more compartmentalized so the X's and O's are much more easily assessed so this article was just catnip to me.

 

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I'm sure by now you've realized that Martin Erat is having a terrible season but if he finishes without a goal it may be historically bad.


Currently the most assists for a forward in a season with zero goals (minimum 48 games played) is 14 by Murray Murdoch of the New York Rangers during the 1936-37 season. Most of the players on that list are enforcer types, or guys who spent most of their time in that given season playing limited minutes on a fourth-line. None of them had the track record of offensive production that Erat has had throughout his career. Consider that the top 10 names on the list in terms of most assists without a goal combined for just three 15-goal seasons in their careers. Erat has eight by himself.

 

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Hockey Graphs makes some interesting projections for future save percentage.

 

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Chris Peters takes a look at some of the adjustments goalies will have to make at the Olympics:


“The first adjustment is this: Not letting the small increase in size adjust who you are as a goalie and affect you mentally,” Exter said. “That happens far too often, especially when you’re used to playing on an NHL-sized sheet. You get in trouble when you start thinking things have to change drastically because they don’t.”

 

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How about some of the overused or overrated statistics in hockey?


Dallas Eakins of the Edmonton Oilers had his team’s toughness questioned recently, and he was specifically asked about hits. I would argue that his response could be applied to both hits and blocked shots.

“You know what the perfect game is? The perfect game is no hits. You know why that is? It’s because you have the puck. You don’t have to hit anybody. You have the puck.”

I've been looking for a way to work that Eakins quote into these ramblings for a while now. Great stuff. For the record, the Oilers sit smack in the middle of the league in terms of hits, which considering how dreadful a possession team they are means they are deficient on all fronts.

 

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Check out this great story of the 1984 US Men's Olympic Hockey team that faced great expectations after the Miracle on Ice.


That’s not, however, what people wanted to hear. Before the Lake Placid Games, hockey in the United States was an Off-Broadway production, often played before half-empty stadiums and covered on page C6 of the sports section. It was a sport, but with the exception of a few cities, such as Boston, not one that registered on the radars of most Americans. “Then the 1980 Olympics happened,” says Larry Johnson, the general manager of the 1984 team, “and people began to care.” It wasn’t merely about the hockey, or even mostly about the hockey. The Miracle on Ice came to symbolize patriotism, and the spirit and willingness of a nation devoted to freedom and liberty, and how a group of plucky amateurs, utter underdogs, could defeat a monstrous, militaristic dictatorship, seemingly through will alone. The game against the Soviets happened while 52 Americans were being held hostage in Iran, and emotions were bubbling over. There was a beauty in toppling the U.S.S.R. in its own sport; in watching “our boys” play with passion and spirit and panache. As soon as the Games ended, and the 19 other members of the Miracle team joined Eruzione on the gold-medal platform, the national hunger kicked in for more. More hockey. More glory. More joy. More miracles.

 

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More gold in Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts:


13. On Martin Brodeur‘s thoughts about a potential trade: Twice I’ve asked Lou Lamiorello about it and twice he’s said he will never do it. Should I try for strike three?

 

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Justin Bourne looks at 10 players in need of a change of scenery:


Nail Yakupov

Salary sitch: Entry level deal, $925k this year and next.

Stat line: 10 and 10 for 20 in 51 games.

Oh, calm down. I'm not saying the Oilers should trade him – I'm saying there's no doubt that he'd benefit from being on a new team. They've got this kid tumbling around the emotional dryer in Edmonton – he's a healthy scratch, he's on PP1, he's crap, he's awesome…he doesn't know which way is up. He definitely needs some good coaching, and while I believe Dallas Eakins is capable of providing it, I think his skills are probably being shaped, instead of nurtured so they can grow. They're shearing off his square edges so they can jam him into a round hole, like a good 'ol North American player. I have no doubt that some team out there would provide him a square hole so he could just bomb around and fire one-T's on the powerplay and thrive.

 

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DobberHockey's own Dallas Guzzwell is competing in a Draft Street Fantasy Hockey Championship Final for some big bucks. Tonight is the final night, he currently sits fifth! Track his progress here. And here is his prize money:

 

 

1st Place: $12,000 7th Place: $1,200
2nd Place: $7,000 8th Place: $1,000 
3rd Place: $4,000 9th Place: $900
4th Place: $2,800 10th – 14th: $750
5th Place: $2,000 15th – 20th: $600
6th Place: $1,600

 

It all comes down to tonight. Good luck Dallas!

 

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John Tortorella's new single Don't Push Me:

 

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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