April 24, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-04-24

Dobber here – I’ll be taking your fantasy hockey questions all day today. Simply follow this link and ask away. Registration takes approximately 10 seconds – 12 seconds if you type slow or want a long user name.

 

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Well, it finally happened. The annual Marc-Andre Fleury meltdown has begun. Or he made a couple of ill-timed mistakes that cost his team in a game that they were outplayed in anyhow. Either way. But the spotlight is on and he could not afford a single mistake. Now the critics have all the fodder they need.

 

Those were two awful goals but I won't pin this all on Fleury. How about Sidney Crosby over-pursuing puck leading to the tying goal? Not good.

 

The Penguins sat on their lead way too much and allowed the Blue Jackets to win the shot battle 46-25. Not surprising that they came back.

 

On the other hand, if the 3-1 lead is really a curse in this series then the Penguins should be thankful that they dropped Game Four to avoid the 3-1 series lead. Of course, such omens are ridiculous. And the Penguins can look back at this game as a missed opportunity if they do drop the series.

 

And hey, at least Paul Martin is leading the playoffs in scoring now with eight assists through four games. If he can stay healthy I really believe he could be a guy to look at for next season.

 

The Fleury gaffs:

 

 

 

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Full credit to the Jackets. They hung tough and got the comeback they deserved despite missing two of their four best defensemen with Fedor Tyutin and Ryan Murray both injured.

 

Their solution was to give Jack Johnson and James Wisniewski all the minutes. Good plan! Johnson has been a revelation in these playoffs. He leads the Jackets in goals with three in four games. Playoff warrior. Remember that for next year.

 

Brandon Dubinsky came up huge with the tying goal, his first of the playoffs. Dubinsky is tops on the Jackets with six points now. You'd definitely have to say he is winning the head-to-head matchup with Crosby.

 

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Interesting question in the forums on whether to keep Ryan Johansen or Eric Staal for next season. I'm a big Staal believer. I've already discussed my reasoning but to summarize: Staal's even strength production was in line with his career production. Only the Hurricanes' miserable power play (28th in the league this season) caused him to slump.

 

That said, it's hard to ignore Johansen here. The eight year difference in age between these two isn't nothing. While I don't think it'll be next year, Staal is definitely going to decline at some point. Johansen, on the other hand, is far from such a regression. In fact, Johansen is right in around the age where goal scorers peak.

 

I do think that Johansen's 13.9% shooting this season is problematic. That probably regresses next season. But his on-ice shooting percentage was right around league average at 7.92% indicating that his own shooting helped to buoy subpar performances by his linemates. If you check his most frequent linemates from this season you'll understand why:

 

48.5%

FOLIGNO,N – JOHANSEN,R – UMBERGER,R

23.1%

HORTON,N – JENNER,B – JOHANSEN,R

12.6%

FOLIGNO,N – JENNER,B – JOHANSEN,R

10.1%

COMEAU,B – JOHANSEN,R – UMBERGER,R

5.8%

ATKINSON,C – DUBINSKY,B – JOHANSEN,R

 

Less Nick Foligno (OT winner aside) and RJ Umberger can only help his cause in the future. So would a healthy Nathan Horton (though one should not rely on such things) and improvements made by Boone Jenner. Even if Johansen's shooting percentage does regress, internal improvements should help his cause.

 

If I had to bet I'd take Staal to score more points next season because his rebound should take him back to the 70-point level but if I had to bet who would score more over the next three seasons I'd be comfortable going with Johansen and that's why he's the pick in a keeper.

 

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The Stars took it to the shorthanded Ducks last night weathering an early storm and scoring four unanswered to tie the series at two.

 

Jamie Benn had a nice snipe to get the Stars comeback going but the goal I was really impressed with was Cody Eakins' end-to-end rush for the game winner. 

 

He starts the play making the breakout pass from behind his own net. Then he receives a pass with his skate at his own blue line while fighting off a check from behind. He blows past a Ducks defender to gain the offensive zone with speed and then rips one far side to beat Frederik Andersen. Ah hell, you need to watch the tape.

 

 

Eakin is a real sleeping beauty in the fantasy game though not in deeper hard core leagues. His sleeper status makes him even more difficult to acquire because everyone wants the hot new thing. But if you have a need for a future 60-point depth guy then he's one to take a chance on. I love his versatile two-way game.

 

Remember when Vernon Fiddler demanded a trade? Good move by the Stars waiting out the situation. He scored a goal and an assist last night. Need that veteran depth in the playoffs.

 

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The Ducks were rather banged up in this one missing Ryan Getzlaf, Teemu Selanne and Stephane Robidas. The Getzlaf injury was obviously the most important. You have to wonder if it was the result of mixing it up with Antoine Roussel after having his face mangled blocking that shot in Game One.

 

The Ducks seem to be letting Roussel get under their skin. Corey Perry dropped the gloves with the Stars pugilist towards the end of last night's game. You hope for their sake that they've gotten this out of their system.

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Jonas Hiller made his first appearance after Andersen was chased midway through the third. Do the Ducks go with Hiller for Game Five? If so this would be Hiller's opportunity to earn some big bucks this summer. Losing his starting job for the start of the playoffs was not the way to head into his UFA summer.

 

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I keep harping on it but this Blues-Blackhawks series is my favourite. It should probably have been the Conference Final but that discredits the other fantastic teams in the West. I think we should be happy that we got to see these two play, regardless of when it occurs. And if you look at it as "Stanley Cup or bust" for these two then it really doesn't matter what round they face off.

 

Vladimir Tarasenko is the breakout star of this series. Give him two more goals in this one. Don't pay anything to get him in your league but pay a lot. It'll be worth it.

 

Does anyone have a tally on how many shots Alex Pietrangelo has had blocked in this series? It must be over a thousand. He can't get a shot through to save his life. Just beating his head against the wall. The Blues' power play struggles aren't all on him but he's the star on this team and definitely deserves his share of the blame.

 

And if we are being fair, I'm not sure anyone on the Blues is getting shots consistently on net. Niklas Hjalmarsson is essentially a human shield. He'd have made excellent body guard if he wasn't such a good hockey player.

 

Still, I'd like to see more Kevin Shattenkirk on the power play. Give him the Erik Karlsson treatment and roll him out on both power play units. He's shown much more ability to get pucks on net in this series.

 

TJ Oshie got his first shots of the series last night but remains scoreless. Boy would the Blues love to get him going.

 

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I know Patrick Kane was the first star but to me Jonathan Toews was the star of this game. Joel Quenneville paired him up with Kane and the two went off in the second for two points apiece before the Blues came back. Then they were split up for the third and Toews helped to set up the tying goal late in the game though he didn't get his third point.

 

Kane had the overtime winner though and had a chance earlier that he had rung off the crossbar. He just wouldn't be denied.

 

If you believe in momentum you'd have to say that the Blackhawks have it. I'd say that these are two dead even teams that split four very close games and if one team has an edge it's the Blackhawks because they aren't nearly as banged up.

 

I mean, the David Backes/Brent Seabrook trade definitely favoured the Blackhawks. Add in Vladimir Sobotka leaving last night's contest in overtime and you've got a team beat up at the center position. Even if the Blues survive this series they might be too banged up to do anything. Seriously, roll out the Oilers with their golf clubs as a Round Two opponent and the Blues might not win. Just too punishing a series. But that's how the playoffs work. Full credit to the Blackhawks getting back to even.

 

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Matt Cooke's suspension was determined yesterday and to the dismay of many he received only seven games. Apparently under the parameters of the new CBA he doesn't qualify as a repeat offender though his history was considered all the same. I'd like to have seen more but with all due respect to the Wild, odds are this is the end of his playoffs. 

 

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Ryan Lambert discusses how playoff discipline needs to improve. You can add Cooke's suspension to the list of underwhelming discipline.

 

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Mikhail Grigorenko owners will be pleased to hear he is adapting well at the AHL level:


"Maybe the thing that I'm most happy about is his consistency," Amerks coach Chadd Cassidy said. "I think he's had one game where I didn't think he was as good as he needed to be. But every other game I think he's been pretty good.

 

I can't say that I'm a believer in Grigorenko's for fantasy purposes but sometimes it takes longer for the light to flick on for some players. It's also great to see Grigorenko finally playing at the pro level as he was caught in between being too raw for the NHL and too good for the CHL the last two seasons. Now he can recommence his development.

 

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Gary Bettman met with the media on Tuesday to discuss a wide array of league topics including the salary cap for the upcoming season (between 69 and 70 million) and the state of the shootout (not going anywhere). You can read the full transcript here or an abbreviated version here

 

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FiveThirtyEight discusses how the Kings' meek playoff performance thus far is surprising those of us who are fans of advanced stats:


While leading the league in Fenwick close isn't necessarily a guaranteed path to the Cup, Fenwick close leaders usually go relatively deep into the NHL playoffs. The Kings are hoping to keep that trend alive, but the odds are pointing to LA becoming one of the most disappointing advanced-stats favorites in a long time.

 

This was the first FiveThirtyEight article I was disappointed with. While the Kings being a strong possession team by the Fenwick measurement this isn't the only thing that the advanced stats crowd looks at. Also, he fails to mention the Sharks ranking third by this metric this season. Hardly surprising.

 

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Sean McIndoe ponders if the NHL's new playoff format isn't awful.

 

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Grantland says goodbye to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

 

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You can follow me on Twitter @SteveLaidlaw.

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