June 25, 2014

Dobber

2014-06-25

Buy my eighth annual Prospects Report here. The Draft is just two days away, you absolutely want this handy guidebook in front of you as you watch the first round.

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More updates: Wow, um – the Kings have signed Marian Gaborik for seven years. They’ll regret that by January. He’ll give them two very good years. Which two? Write the seven years on your wall and throw two darts. You’ll have your answer. At least the cap hit is fairly reasonable – Lebrun is reporting that it’s around $5 million per year.

Reports floating around Twitter is that Paul Stastny will explore free agency, but will give the Avs a chance to match.

Darren Dreger reports that Tony Granato will probably be hired as an assistant coach by the Toronto Maple Leafs.

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What all these early signings mean is that the pickings will be slim on Tuesday – but I’ll still be here to personally break it all down.

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Some updates for you:

Ryan Callahan has signed a six-year deal with Tampa Bay worth $34.8 million. This is almost as big a mistake as David Clarkson’s deal last year, except Callahan is smarter and has more leadership. And he may have more upside (he definitely used to), but I fear that his talent has eroded a little with all the injuries and I wonder if he can ever get even 55 points. To make room, TB bought out Ryan Malone (compliance).

Also, the Oilers came to terms with Nikita Nikitin. I will have an analysis of that one shortly. 

And the Penguins have themselves a new coach. Mike Johnston. I’ll have an analysis of that one as well.

 

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You know, I really gotta stop following Rick Roos for the ramblings, the bar gets set too high for me. I should put him on a different day, so my day isn’t right after him. Yesterday’s was the most positive feedback I’ve ever seen, between the comments and the emails and Twitter. And I’ve had a lot of great feedback over the years, what with Angus, Laidlaw, etc…

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It’s amazing how fantasy hockey trade evaluations have evolved over the years. In the early 90s, I’d look over the team stats every Tuesday in the newspaper and fill out by hand each person’s team. Then approach someone based on the player’s points that, just from seeing them every week, are either hot or not. Years later, I could get that information online. Daily. Soon after that, around when I first started writing for The Hockey News, I paid attention to (and wrote about) ice time. Changes in ice time, good or bad. I had some very respected long-time fantasy enthusiasts tell me how I opened their eyes to such a strategy. But then we got line combinations, thanks to Grease Monkey and then – rounded up beautifully and reviewable by any set of dates – Frozen Pool. Line combos and the depth chart.

And now I find myself looking at PDO and Zone Starts. And contract status. Look at the evolution!

When I’m reviewing or putting together a trade, this is what I do for the players involved:

1 – Usually, just because I do this for a living, I can put together the pieces just from my own instincts. Just eyeballing the players I can come up with a pretty good base of a deal and very quickly. From there it’s just due diligence. See below.

2 – Look at the player’s career stats. Declining, improving or steady? If it’s a player with under five or six years of NHL experience, I look at the junior and AHL numbers. Is there promise? Just getting a broad overview of the player.

3 – Look at the player’s recent stats. Usually it’s the early part of a hot or cold streak that is prompting this action. Just get a better feel of the current climate.

4 – Look