August 8, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-08-08

More on Doan, Ribeiro, the Islanders and outdoor hockey…

 

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The Fantasy Guide has been updated with information on the Timonen/Del Zotto situation as well as the inclusion of the annual PDO article.

 

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I've heard some whispers that Shane Doan might be a real good buy-low/rebound candidate. The theory goes that Doan started out hot scoring 12 goals and 23 points through his first 27 games before coming down with a case of rocky mountain fever. Upon his return he struggled with just eight points in 18 games before the Olympic break. With two weeks to rest up Doan finished the season hard with 14 points in 21 games.

 

It's a nice narrative. If you suck away those 18 games of struggles mid-season then that's 37 points in 48 games, a 63-point pace over 82 games. And if you consider the time missed plus the time struggled a result of a fluke illness then presumably Doan would have been able to swing that 63-point season.

 

I'm not buying all of that though. Even including his "recovery" games mid-season Doan shot 13.8% despite being a 10.3% career shooter so he's also a reasonable candidate for regression.

 

You also have to account for the absence of Mike Ribeiro who was bought out by the Coyotes this summer. Obviously things went sour between the Coyotes and Ribeiro over the second half of last season but Ribeiro was also instrumental in Doan's early season success.

 

Ribeiro was Doan's most frequent centerman throughout the season and in the early going they appeared to have some good chemistry. It wasn't until the second half when things really started to go off the rails for Ribeiro. So losing a playmaker like that will only hurt Doan's bid for future success.

 

If we discount the time spent with a quality Ribeiro and the time spent still recovering from illness then we would look only at Doan's final 21 games, in which, if you recall, he scored 14 points, which makes for a 54-point pace. That's admittedly a small sample size but 54-points sounds a lot more reasonable for a guy like Doan.

 

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While we're here… I just dug this up on Ribeiro. Apparently he was having marital issues, which derailed him in Phoenix. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here and say that if anyone is a bounce-back candidate from that Coyotes team then it's surely Ribeiro. He is on a new team, hopefully far enough away from his emotional distress to maintain focus, and with a one-year "prove it" contract that should definitely help with said focus.