October 30, 2014
steve laidlaw
2014-10-30
Recapping last night’s NHL action including big night’s for Craig Smith and Justin Abdelkader, also Nyquist vs. Toffoli…
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It was pretty fortunate that there were only two games on the NHL slate last night because even though I’m not much of a fan of actually watching baseball, when the World Series goes to game seven, I am tuning in. That was a fun game. Now we can be rid of baseball until next summer.
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There were some really poor officiating moments in the Wings-Capitals game. The Wings had what they thought was the game's opening goal as Braden Holtby tripped over his own feet but the goal was wiped off and a penalty assessed to Luke Glendening despite not a single Wing being within even stick's reach of the netminder.
Fortunately for the Red Wings their penalty kill is really good and they killed the penalty. They did eventually concede a goal to Joel Ward while down a man but that will happen against one of the league's best power plays if you give them enough chances. On the night the Caps were one for five.
That might be a bit misleading though. Down one late in the third the Capitals got a power play on an uncharacteristic holding penalty by Pavel Datsyuk. That power play was negated when the refs rewarded Darren Helm for a pretty blatant dive.
When the Red Wings eventually went on the power play they'd get a sweet goal from Datsyuk who went top cheese on Holtby.
Datsyuk was a real catalyst for the Wings in this one. He was bumped up to the top line in Gustav Nyquist's stead and they got three third-period goals out of that line including two from Justin Abdelkader.
If you are thinking about grabbing Abdelkader, maybe think again. We've been down this road before. Sure, he plays top line minutes but he's not normally a factor on the power play. To be fair, he was in this one skating over three minutes on the top power play unit but that's the exception, not the rule. So while Abdelkader looks enticing with five goals and eight points through nine games he's unlikely to keep this up.
If that's not enough to dissuade you consider then Abdelkader's current shooting percentage is 22.7%. He's just a 7% career shooter. His career highs for goals and points are 10 and 28 respectively, which he set last season.
Nyquist, by the way, well he was fine managing his fifth goal of the season before getting replaced by Datsyuk on the top line.
Here's an interesting question: Nyquist or Tyler Toffoli? Rick just did Alex Galchenyuk vs. Toffoli as his latest Cage Match but this seems to me an even more compelling matchup.
My take: Nyquist is the better bet. Toffoli looks like a world beater right now but we don't care so much about what he has done but rather what he is going to do. Last time I checked Toffoli still plays for the Kings, a mediocre offensive team with a weak power play currently ranked 18th in both categories.
They've been producing much better on that power play since Toffoli hopped on board, which is a good argument for him maintaining that spot but it's not guaranteed. Eventually, Marian Gaborik is going to return to claim his top unit role. And even if Gaborik doesn't steal that top unit power play spot maybe teams will at least figure out to focus more attention on That 70's Line. Again, this is not a great offensive team. The offense will spread itself out over a larger sample.
Meanwhile, it's looking less and less likely that Daniel Alfredsson will return meaning that Nyquist's top line/top power play role is more secure than Toffoli's.
And look all either one of these two does is score. Both are going to see their shooting percentages drop below the 20+% that they currently sit at now but Toffoli should see a lot less teammate luck as his on-ice shooting percentage sits at a ludicrous 17.7%. The regression monster is coming for Toffoli. Nyquist's on-ice shooting percentage is a much more sustainable 9.3%.
There is an argument against Nyquist though. Alfredsson does still loom and as we saw in this game, he can lose his top line spot in crunch time to Datsyuk.
Also working against Nyquist is the fact that Detroit has been even more anemic than the Kings this season ranking 21st in scoring and 26th on the power play but this team with largely the same personnel ranked 16th and 18th in those categories last year. Alfredsson is the one key ingredient missing as the Red Wings' leading scorer from last season but healthy Henrik Zetterberg and Datsyuk would conceivably cover up for his absence.
I like these two about equally in a keeper but if I had to bet on one for the rest of the season I'd lean Nyquist slightly.
It should be mentioned how good Jimmy Howard is playing this season. He's a big reason why the Red Wings have been so strong on the penalty kill. If I trusted him health-wise I'd give him top-10 billing.
Note to self: Do not attempt to check Brendan Smith. You don't want to celebrate injury but Jason Chimera had his nose pushed even further out of place on that one. He was back out there once they stopped the bleeding. What a champ.
Smith, recorded his first assist of the season but it's becoming clear that he simply isn't a fantasy asset.
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The Capitals shook up their lines landing Andrei Burakovsky as top line center beside Alexander Ovechkin and Joel Ward. People are raving about Burakovsky and for good reason, he's a very skilled player who skates with excellent tenacity. He drew a penalty in this one with an excellent individual effort and ranks second on the team in penalties drawn/60 minutes.
But Burakovsky still has some things to learn. He had a brutal turnover in front of his own goal handing Abdelkader his first goal. We call those rookie mistakes for a reason.
Burakovsky did notch an assist to give him eight points through nine games. That will slow down as the season wears on. He won't maintain that spot as #1 center. Coaches have tried splitting up Ovechkin from Nicklas Backstrom in the past but they always wind up together eventually. Burakovsky is also merely skating on the second power play unit. That usage lends itself to 50-point upside at the maximum.
Josi still paired with Weber and he's still skating huge minutes on the top power play unit. No reason for concern. When everything shakes out he's going to right up around where he was last season with 40 points and if Nashville continues to play as well as they have been he'll be able to boast plus/minus as a strength, rather than simply as a non-weakness.
One element that was of small concern early on was Josi's shot rate. He had just 12 SOG through the first eight contests after averaging well over two per game last season. Josi's five shots last night will go a long way to getting him back on track. He'll need to maintain that shot rate over two per contest if he is to repeat his double-digit goal performance from last season. He might come up short but I think he'll be close again.
The Predators second line of Derek Roy, Matt Cullen and Craig Smith was fantastic last night. Smith had two goals and had a third disallowed on one of those "ref intended to blow the whistle earlier plays."
I hate that call with a passion. I totally get it mind you but I still hate the call. And now with replay you'd think they'd be able to get rid of it. Couldn't they simply "go upstairs" and ask, "I thought the goalie had the puck frozen and meant to blow the whistle but didn't and I'm not sure if it actually was frozen. Was I correct or was the puck loose the whole time?"
Now, that is admittedly a subjective call but the folks in Toronto could simply say no the puck was never covered therefore your intent doesn't apply here or yes it appears that it may have been covered therefore your intent does apply. Err on the side of stopping the play early. That's what the ref would do anyway in waiving off the goal. At least try to come up with a way for an error like that to be resolved.
There's no resolving plays where the referee erroneously blows the whistle early. The whistle is a clear line in the sand where right or wrong the play has to end. If the ref doesn't blow the whistle though and merely intends to, we have the means to get those plays correct.
In any case, two goals for Smith to end a five-game scoreless drought. He had five SOG too. This is totally a coincidence but Smith's last two-point effort came the last time he had five SOG. This goes without saying but when Smith is shooting a lot that means good things for his scoring.
This was Cullen's first game of the season, which makes Nashville's start all the more impressive. That's not to say that Cullen is a huge game-changer. But he definitely improves their team.
Is anyone else completely weirded out by Olli Jokinen rocking the long locks? I saw him buzzing around in this one and was completely thrown by the flow poking out the back of his helmet. This isn't Jaromir Jagr type flow, mind you, but it's still jarring for a player who has basically been bald as long as we've known him. And the dude has no eyebrows so what he's doing with flow is beyond me. Seriously, check out his player profile on NHL.com. No eyebrows! Stick with the bald look when you’ve got no eyebrows.
Is he doing it just to look good on television? Because watching him skate with the long hair is awesome. That profile picture is terrifying though. Thank goodness he's no longer fantasy relevant.
The Pekka Rinne comeback season is so on. It would be a tough pull but if you can get in now do it. Top-five season is on its way and you won't be able to get him around the 25-game mark when we can be sure that he's for real.
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Time to talk injuries…
Matt Stajan is headed to the IR after that brutal knee-on-knee collision against Montreal. Markus Granlund has been recalled. I don't see much fantasy relevance here unless Joe Colborne who is day-to-day is also out.
The injuries keep on mounting for the Blue Jackets as they lost Mark Letestu (2-4 weeks), James Wisniewski (1-2 weeks) and Artem Anisimov against the Senators the other night. This after Sergei Bobrovsky went on IR joining Nick Foligno and all those forwards who started the season there.
At least the Blue Jackets got Ryan Murray back.
Wisniewski's injury is the big one as it likely means that Tim Erixon hangs onto his roster spot and power play ice time.
Bobrovsky's injury is huge too but there's really no replacing him. Curtis McElhinney looked like a decent pick up but all these other injuries have me sour on that idea.
The Bruins lost Torey Krug to a broken finger. He'll miss 2-3 weeks. Now we can jump on the Dougie Hamilton bandwagon because I don't see how they aren't going to give him way more minutes now. We might see Hamilton taking two-minute power play shifts in Krug's absence.
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John Moore gets a five-game suspension for the hit to the head of Erik Haula. Sounds about right.
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I talked about Burakovsky drawing penalties earlier in the ramblings and it got me thinking again about how that REALLY needs to become a stat category that we track in fantasy hockey. It's just logical.
Drawing penalties takes skill and it's a positive event. This isn't like PIM where it's actually negative or like hits/blocked shots where it's positive to do such acts but actually indicates poor performance by your team since by definition the opposition has to have the puck for you to hit them or block their shot. No, drawing penalties shows honest-to-goodness skill. It shows you had the puck and were dangerous enough that the opponent had to break the rules to stop you and your team gets rewarded with a power play for your actions.
Seriously, how is penalties drawn not a stat in my fantasy league? And why don't my fantasy providers give me that as an option? I'd rather have penalties drawn as a peripheral category than any stat other than shots on goal.
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The Sabres' 10-shot performance from the other night was historically bad.
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I'm not a huge fan of checking in on what NHL players are dressing up for Halloween as but I can't help it that Scott Hartnell's Larry Bird outfit caught my eye.
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It has been out for a while but I just watched the New York Times documentary on Derek Boogaard. Definitely worth checking out if you have a half-hour to spare.
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In a similar vein, this profile on Patrice Bergeron and his own concussion issues is a worthwhile read.
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As always some juicy nuggets in Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts:
2. The Blues are in an interesting spot. A contender going through some transition. The new setup in goal is well-documented. The defence is reasonably set. What's getting less attention are the changes up front. Jaden Schwarz is establishing himself as a top scorer. Vladimir Tarasenko is growing from a 15-minute player to a 17-minute player. Once he gets healthy, Paul Stastny will be a major piece. Depending on how this evolves, will Doug Armstrong quietly gauge the market on some of his incumbent forwards?
I don't see a trade myself. They'll need all that depth come playoff time. Plus, if the defense is set and the forward slots are overloaded where would they upgrade. Trading for a goalie didn't work out so well last year.
I like that Tarasenko is seeing more minutes this year. It certainly points to a breakout season but I wonder if all that depth won't hinder things yet.
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Datsyuk dropping dimes like a bank teller: