November 27, 2014

steve laidlaw

2014-11-27

The Islanders are elite, Patrick Kane is shooting up the ranks, Iginla’s woes are for real and more…

Happy Thanksgiving to our friends south of the border! I hope everyone, regardless of where you reside spends some time with their loved ones today because there won’t be any hockey worth watching. Sure the Oilers play the Predators but well I did say “worth watching” didn’t I? No offense, Predators! May you be thankful for this pumpkin pie of an opponent.

This Islanders team is something else, folks. Not only are they a tremendous possession team but they are one of those rare teams that will kick your tail physically even while owning more of the puck than you. Take last night for example, when the Islanders outshot the Capitals 35-27 and outhit them 55-28. Only two Islanders went hitless, Lubomir Visnovsky and Kyle Okposo while hit fiends Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck had 13 and eight respectively. Is that dynamic duo ranked 1-2 in hits this season? Glad you asked because, yes, yes they are.

Last night isn't a perfect example because from what I saw the game was pretty even until overtime where the Islanders took over. And you might accuse the Islanders' scorers of homerism, giving their team credit for more hits than they are due. You can't rule it out but the reality is that the Islanders have been credited with more than 100 less hits at home than on the road. Part of that is because they have skated more road games than home games but that doesn't make up the full difference. If anything, the Islanders scorers aren't giving their team enough credit, which is scary considering they rank fifth in the league in total hits.

They are simply a load to deal with. When you aren't contending with their big hitters on the fourth line, they are coming at you with three dangerous scoring lines, chief among them the Tavares line. Is there any doubt remaining that Tavares is a superstar? Check out the moves and patience on the overtime winner:

on-ice shooting percentage</a> at evens is a comfortable 8.65%, right around league average. Meanwhile the Islanders power play is cooking at a <a href="http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm?fetchKey=20152ALLSAAAll&sort=powerPlayPercentage&viewName=summary">solid 20.5% good for eighth</a> in the league.   The only case for Tavares doing better is if you believe in the superstar effect, where elite players can push shooting percentages above normal rates. We see it every year for players like Crosby, Malkin, etc. and indeed we saw it last year for Tavares as he pushed his <a href="http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&pos=skaters&minutes=50&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=ShPct&sortdir=DESC">on-ice shooting percentage to 10.25%</a>. That's an obscene number but I think it's repeatable. We saw guys like <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1985&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Steven Stamkos</a>, <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=2480&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Tyler Seguin</a>, <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=533&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Henrik Zetterberg</a> and <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=41&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Corey Perry</a> in that range as high usage players.   Tavares will need some help to get there. I'm looking at you, <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1832&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Kyle Okposo</a>. Okposo is goal-less in 10 straight now and is shooting just 7.1% after reaching 13.8% last season. He'll likely regress towards the middle where his career average sits at 10.2% to help boost his and Tavares' numbers the rest of the way.   They could use some help from their LWer, whoever it ends up being. <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1470&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Nikolai Kulemin</a> is looking pretty solid there but the dude isn't scoring. He has just two points in the last six games. Something's got to give.   Anyways, the Islanders sure do have the look of an elite team and they have a ton to offer for fantasy purposes. Exciting times.   *   With <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1584&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Mike Green</a> out it appears that it's time to grab <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=505&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Matt Niskanen</a>. While the Capitals didn't get much power play time, it was mostly because of how efficient they were scoring in under a minute on both of their opportunities. Both times it was Niskanen who got the job on the top power play unit, not <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=2195&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">John Carlson</a>. Niskanen was also tops among Capitals in ice time with 26:22 to <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1241&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Brooks Orpik</a>'s 26:07 and Carlson's 25:31. Niskanen notched a power-play assist and looks to have the job for the mean time.   We haven't heard much from <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=3856&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Andre Burakovsky</a> of late. His minutes and shifts have started to dwindle a bit. He was down to 14 shifts and just 9:47 of ice time last night. This is where he trends towards a demotion or a healthy scratch. The demotion hasn't come yet as he was still skating with <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=2476&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Marcus Johansson</a> and <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=335&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Troy Brouwer</a> last night but one of a demotion or scratch is coming. You can just smell it. Typical rookie treatment though as the coaches try to get consistency from him.   *   I'm still not ready to jump in on <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=635&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Stephen Weiss</a> but he got another two points last night to give him four in two since returning from injury. He finally missed on a SOG though dropping his shooting percentage to a cool 75%. It's all over.   A return I can get behind is <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=531&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Pavel Datsyuk</a>, who scored twice in his first game back from injury last night. That Datsyuk skated <a href="frozenpool_lastgamelines.php">on a line with</a> Weiss at both even strength and on the power play is positive news for Weiss owners more than it is Datsyuk owners. But maybe the Red Wings trend towards a similar situation as we see in Boston where there is no "top unit" rather the two units split time evenly. That helps those of you digging Weiss but more importantly <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=2250&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Tomas Tatar</a> owners.   Tatar was held scoreless for the first time in six games and I think that becomes more of a trend with his current ice time hanging around the 13-14-minute range most nights. He was officially at 14:56 before last night's contest but that has trended downward as the team has gotten healthier.   Back to Datsyuk though. Is this the year he officially becomes frustrating to own? Yeah, you're right. He started becoming frustrating in 2010-11 when injuries really became a problem. Datsyuk only missed one game during the lockout-shortened 2013 season but otherwise he has missed 26, 12 and 37 games in seasons since 2010-11 and he has already missed half of this season's contests. There should be a different term for players who achieve <a href="The-Dobotomy/nhl-band-aid-boys-injury-prone">Band-Aid Boy</a> status in their twilight years but I'm afraid I am not creative enough to come up with the term. The best I've got is "geri-erratic," which needs work. Help me out!   *   <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1397&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Dan Boyle</a> is on the board! His goal last night was his first score in six contests since returning. Small sample size be damned, I am so done with this guy. He has gotten every opportunity with <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=2513&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Ryan McDonagh</a> out and has just one point to show for it. Not exactly forcing the coach's hand, is he?   McDonagh is <a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/rangers/rangers-lightning-gameday-notes-lineups-mcdonagh-update-blog-entry-1.2025009">due back soon</a> and when that occurs, Boyle's chances will dry up.   I do suspect there is value for Boyle in a secondary role but to what extent that can be on this team is a question worth asking. Boyle did manage 36 points for a San Jose team whose statistical profile matches up quite favourably with this season's Rangers (goals/game: SJ – 2.92 vs. NYR – 2.81, PP efficiency: SJ – 17.2% vs. NYR – 16.4%) but that was as top dog and while sustaining a high shooting percentage of 7.8%. I don't think he does as well this season.   I won't embed it here but you can check out the <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1396&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Martin St. Louis</a> tribute in his return to Tampa Bay last night if you follow <a href="http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=683293&catid=35">this link</a>.   *   <a href="frozenpool_profiler.php?players=1513&sent=go&games=2014-2015%3AR">Roberto Luongo</a> went down in spectacular fashion last night making this spectacular save before leaving shortly after:   <iframe src="http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/embed?playlist=683552″ frameborder="0″ width="640″ height="395″>

Al Montoya came on in relief and completed the shutout making 22 saves against the punchless Hurricanes. The good news for Luongo owners, he still got credit for the win. The bad news, he's got what appears to be a shoulder injury and we don't know how long he'll be out.

This gets ugly in a hurry for the Panthers if Luongo misses a significant stretch. Montoya is a serviceable backup and did put up stellar numbers for the Jets last season but I wouldn't trust him with any extended time as a starter.

The options behind Montoya are where it truly gets ugly. The first call up would surely be Dan Ellis who has been great in the AHL this season but has a long enough track record of poor NHL play to warrant fear and the other guy at the AHL level is Michael Houser who has been dreadful as a pro.

I think if Luongo misses extended time that this will be one of those situations where we just lose a quality goaltender without anyone establishing themselves in replacement. It would be similar to how neither Carter Hutton nor Marek Mazanec truly distinguished themselves when Pekka Rinne went down last season.

Blake Comeau's run of fantasy relevance has reached a crescendo with last night's natural hat-trick, including the overtime winner. This run will end eventually, when the Penguins trade for a winger or two so Comeau won't finish with more than 45 points but he can be a great stopgap solution for now. The top-six opportunity is there for him and he is taking advantage. Why not embrace it?

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Check out the Leafs' most frequent line combinations last night with both David Booth and Joffrey Lupul back in the lineup:

Frequency	Strength	Line Combination
24.3%	EV	43 KADRI,NAZEM – 47 KOMAROV,LEO – 25 SANTORELLI,MICHAEL
18.66%	EV	42 BOZAK,TYLER – 81 KESSEL,PHIL – 21 VAN RIEMSDYK,JAMES
13.38%	EV	71 CLARKSON,DAVID – 24 HOLLAND,PETER – 26 WINNIK,DANIEL
11.27%	EV	20 BOOTH,DAVID – 19 LUPUL,JOFFREY – 23 SMITH,TREVOR

That's right, Booth and Lupul started on the fourth line. They did get a couple of shifts with Nazem Kadri, which is where they could easily wind up once they get back up to speed but for now Leo Komarov and Michael Santorelli will continue to hang on to their top-six spots. It was a productive night for Komarov and Santorelli with two points each. Certainly making a case for continued time with Kadri.

UPCOMING GAMES

	May 27 - 20:05	EDM	vs	DAL

Starting Goalies

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Top Skater Views

	Players	Team
	ALEXANDER NIKISHIN	CAR
	QUINTON BYFIELD	L.A
	CARTER VERHAEGHE	FLA
	ALEKSANDER BARKOV	FLA
	ZACH HYMAN	EDM

Top Goalie Profile Views

	Players	Team
	STUART SKINNER	EDM
	SERGEI BOBROVSKY	FLA
	TOMAS SUCHANEK	ANA
	CALVIN PICKARD	EDM
	LUKAS DOSTAL	ANA

LINE COMBOS

	Frequency	BOS Players
	20.2	DAVID PASTRNAK ELIAS LINDHOLM MORGAN GEEKIE
	14.6	PAVEL ZACHA FABIAN LYSELL MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV
	13.4	CASEY MITTELSTADT VINNI LETTIERI COLE KOEPKE

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