Eastern Edge: Real or Imagined – Part Two

Eric Daoust

2014-12-16

RickNash

 

Buy, sell or hold? Looking at the best forwards in the Eastern Conference.

 

Shots on goal are the most repeatable statistic in hockey. We have seen that players that shoot a lot tend to be very productive. This makes the ability to generate shots one of the most important factors in point production for forwards. When shooting percentage is added into the equation it becomes easier to judge the sustainability of a player's production. A hot streak is typically accompanied by a high-than-normal shooting percentage which levels off over time. On the flip side, a cold streak usually sees the percentage drop significantly but if the player is still getting shots it is only a matter of time before he snaps out of his funk.

 

For example Rick Nash is averaging close to 3.5 shots per game. If he finishes with a 20% shooting percentage he will score 57 goals. However, if he finishes the year at a more sustainable star's shooting percentage of 12% he will finish with 34 goals.

 

Beyond shooting percentage there are many other factors that influence a player's production. This includes linemates, ice time, power play time and past history. Furthermore, there are cases where a player's worth may be maximized on the trade market rather than on your roster. This mostly applies to young unestablished players.

 

Note: This article focuses only on the rest of this season in points-only leagues.

 

Note 2: Last week we mistakenly covered only seven teams. This week you get nine!

 

New Jersey

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

TOI

PPTOI

Shots

Status

 
 

BERNIER,STEVE

R

20

8

10.6

0:39

28

Sell

 

BOUCHER,REID

C

4

0

9.1

0:14

6

Waive

 

CAMMALLERI,MIKE

L

23

15

18.8

2:24

56

Hold

 

CLOWE,RYANE

L

13

4

15.4

2:45

15

Sell

 

ELIAS,PATRIK

L

26

12

17.3

2:09

32

Buy

 

GIONTA,STEPHEN

R

31

5

11.4

0:01

39

Waive

 

GOMEZ,SCOTT

C

7

4

18.5

1:52

4

Sell

 

HAVLAT,MARTIN

R

18

7

13.6

1:28

20

Hold

 

HENRIQUE,ADAM

C

24

18

18.1

1:59

41

Sell

 

JAGR,JAROMIR

R

30

18

18.1

2:24

63

Hold

 

JOSEFSON,JACOB

C

23

3

12.0

0:02

23

Waive

 

RUUTU,TUOMO

R

30

6

10.9

0:14

32

Waive

 

RYDER,MICHAEL

R

30

14

14.5

1:38

65

Hold

 

SISLO,MIKE

R

8

1

11.8

0:00

12

Waive

 

TOOTOO,JORDIN

R

17

2

6.8

0:00

9

Waive

 

ZAJAC,TRAVIS

C

23

8

19.7

2:17

30

 Buy

 

ZUBRUS,DAINIUS

C

28

4

13.9

0:01

34

Waive

 

 

Steve Bernier: Bernier has enjoyed a surprising amount of success after years of being irrelevant. On the surface it looks like he could be returning to respectable numbers like he posted in San Jose. Unfortunately the history is against him as he has not reached the 20-point mark since 2010. Furthermore, his luck is bound to run out with just 10 minutes per night. If someone wants him, sell now.

 

Ryane Clowe: The oft-injured Clowe has been a very effective winger at times during his career. Unfortunately he has not played since November 6 and when he has played he has not been shooting much which no doubt factors into his poor numbers. Rid yourself of the headache if you can.

 

Patrik Elias: The longtime offensive weapon is off to a slow start but there are many reasons to like what is coming. The Devils have always been loyal to their veterans and Elias is always top priority. The overall ice time and power play minutes will remain consistent meaning he is bound to start shooting more which will lead to more points overall.

 

Scott Gomez: Even with the Devils' usual loyalty to their vets, it boggles the mind that Gomez is able to earn close to 20 minutes per night. Through seven games he does have four points but only has four shots. Expect his ice time and production to dry up especially as the team gets Zajac and Elias back from recent injuries.

 

Adam Henrique: While Henrique has had an excellent start to this season and is usually goal-heavy to begin with, he is currently scoring at a better rate (19%) than he should. Expect to see him fall back between last year's rate (18%) and the one from the year before (14%) the rest of the way. That will chop off a goal here and there and carve into his final total.

 

Travis Zajac: Can a guy playing close to 20 minutes per night with a good history of point production remain this cold for much longer? He is actually shooting more efficiently than last year but has not been shooting often and has been snake-bitten in the assist department. Considering his most frequent linemates are Cammalleri and Jagr, look for Zajac to snap out of it soon or later. He is a good depth option for the months to come.

 

NY Islanders

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

TOI

PPTOI

Shots

Status

BAILEY,JOSH

C

19

8

14.8

1:42

29

Hold

BOULTON,ERIC

L

4

0

6.1

0:03

3

Waive

CIZIKAS,CASEY

C

26

8

12.5

0:09

33

Waive

CLUTTERBUCK,CAL

R

28

7

12.4

0:08

58

Waive

CONACHER,CORY

C

15

3

13.4

0:46

23

Waive

GRABNER,MICHAEL

R

5

2

12.8

0:00

7

Hold

GRABOVSKI,MIKHAIL

C

27

11

14.4

1:34

37

Buy

KULEMIN,NIKOLAY

L

30

12

15.2

0:17

42

Hold

LEE,ANDERS

C

24

7

11.9

1:21

53

Waive

MARTIN,MATT

L

30

5

10.5

0:08

34

Waive

MCDONALD,COLIN

R

2

0

10.6

0:10

3

Waive

NELSON,BROCK

C

30

24

16.4

3:40

77

Hold

NIELSEN,FRANS

C

30

17

16.7

3:01

67

Hold

OKPOSO,KYLE

R

30

27

19.7

3:57

95

Buy

STROME,RYAN

C

30

20

13.9

2:08

66

Hold

TAVARES,JOHN

C

30

27

20.3

4:05

88

Buy

 

Mikhail Grabovski: Even though Grabovski has received limited minutes on an Islanders club with a lot of depth up front, his ice time is not much different than it was a year ago in Washington. The difference is that last year he was able to be a factor on the power play and shot at a higher percentage. It is reasonable to expect one point every two games moving forward especially once he starts chipping in with the man advantage.

 

Kyle Okposo: He has been very inconsistent with his scoring over the years including two partial seasons in the last five years where he was on pace for around 10 goals. However, playing next to Tavares this is bound to change. Good things tend to happen to those that slot in on the same line as a superstar.

 

John Tavares: The only thing that stands out in Tavares' numbers is his lack of assists. Obviously that will change once Okposo begins correcting his shooting percentage which sits at a mere 7.4% currently. When it is all said and done Tavares should once again be above the point-per-game mark.

 

NY Rangers

 

Name

Pos

GP

Pts

TOI

PPTOI

Shots

Status

BRASSARD,DERICK

C

27

24

17.9

3:06

50

Sell

DUCLAIR,ANTHONY

L

18

7

12.0

1:25

18

Waive

FAST,JESPER

R

16

5

10.7

0:03

14

Waive

GLASS,TANNER

L

23

1

10.0

0:04

14

Waive

HAGELIN,CARL

L

28

12

15.4

0:07

53

Hold

HAYES,KEVIN

R

25

11

12.0

0:13

36

Waive

KREIDER,CHRIS

C

26

13

14.8

2:00

54

Buy

MALONE,RYAN

L

6

0

9.7

2:13

6

Waive

MILLER,J.T.

C

9

4

12.0

0:35

19

Gamble

MOORE,DOMINIC

C

28

10

14.1

0:04

37

Waive

MUELLER,CHRIS

C

7

2

10.1

1:53

10

Waive

NASH,RICK

L

28

31

17.3

2:59

96

Sell

ST. LOUIS,MARTIN

R

28

22

18.1

3:10

58

Hold

STEMPNIAK,LEE

R

25

11

14.0

1:52

53

Waive

STEPAN,DEREK

C

16

14

18.2

3:15

36

Hold

ZUCCARELLO,MATS

C

26

14

17.0

2:05

53

Buy

 

Derick Brassard: The upcoming regression in Brassard's production can be broken down into two factors: his own shooting percentage and frequent linemate Nash's shooting percentage (see below). Brassard is currently shooting at a rate of 16% which is high. He will still be a good player but do not expect the same frequency of points.

 

UPCOMING GAMES

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STARTING GOALIES

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HOT PLAYERS

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LINE COMBOS

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