Eastern Edge: Real or Imagined – Part Two
Eric Daoust
2014-12-16
Buy, sell or hold? Looking at the best forwards in the Eastern Conference.
Shots on goal are the most repeatable statistic in hockey. We have seen that players that shoot a lot tend to be very productive. This makes the ability to generate shots one of the most important factors in point production for forwards. When shooting percentage is added into the equation it becomes easier to judge the sustainability of a player's production. A hot streak is typically accompanied by a high-than-normal shooting percentage which levels off over time. On the flip side, a cold streak usually sees the percentage drop significantly but if the player is still getting shots it is only a matter of time before he snaps out of his funk.
For example Rick Nash is averaging close to 3.5 shots per game. If he finishes with a 20% shooting percentage he will score 57 goals. However, if he finishes the year at a more sustainable star's shooting percentage of 12% he will finish with 34 goals.
Beyond shooting percentage there are many other factors that influence a player's production. This includes linemates, ice time, power play time and past history. Furthermore, there are cases where a player's worth may be maximized on the trade market rather than on your roster. This mostly applies to young unestablished players.
Note: This article focuses only on the rest of this season in points-only leagues.
Note 2: Last week we mistakenly covered only seven teams. This week you get nine!
New Jersey
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
|
R |
20 |
8 |
10.6 |
0:39 |
28 |
Sell |
||
|
C |
4 |
0 |
9.1 |
0:14 |
6 |
Waive |
||
|
L |
23 |
15 |
18.8 |
2:24 |
56 |
Hold |
||
|
L |
13 |
4 |
15.4 |
2:45 |
15 |
Sell |
||
|
L |
26 |
12 |
17.3 |
2:09 |
32 |
Buy |
||
|
R |
31 |
5 |
11.4 |
0:01 |
39 |
Waive |
||
|
C |
7 |
4 |
18.5 |
1:52 |
4 |
Sell |
||
|
R |
18 |
7 |
13.6 |
1:28 |
20 |
Hold |
||
|
C |
24 |
18 |
18.1 |
1:59 |
41 |
Sell |
||
|
R |
30 |
18 |
18.1 |
2:24 |
63 |
Hold |
||
|
C |
23 |
3 |
12.0 |
0:02 |
23 |
Waive |
||
|
R |
30 |
6 |
10.9 |
0:14 |
32 |
Waive |
||
|
R |
30 |
14 |
14.5 |
1:38 |
65 |
Hold |
||
|
R |
8 |
1 |
11.8 |
0:00 |
12 |
Waive |
||
|
R |
17 |
2 |
6.8 |
0:00 |
9 |
Waive |
||
|
C |
23 |
8 |
19.7 |
2:17 |
30 |
Buy |
||
|
C |
28 |
4 |
13.9 |
0:01 |
34 |
Waive |
Steve Bernier: Bernier has enjoyed a surprising amount of success after years of being irrelevant. On the surface it looks like he could be returning to respectable numbers like he posted in San Jose. Unfortunately the history is against him as he has not reached the 20-point mark since 2010. Furthermore, his luck is bound to run out with just 10 minutes per night. If someone wants him, sell now.
Ryane Clowe: The oft-injured Clowe has been a very effective winger at times during his career. Unfortunately he has not played since November 6 and when he has played he has not been shooting much which no doubt factors into his poor numbers. Rid yourself of the headache if you can.
Patrik Elias: The longtime offensive weapon is off to a slow start but there are many reasons to like what is coming. The Devils have always been loyal to their veterans and Elias is always top priority. The overall ice time and power play minutes will remain consistent meaning he is bound to start shooting more which will lead to more points overall.
Scott Gomez: Even with the Devils' usual loyalty to their vets, it boggles the mind that Gomez is able to earn close to 20 minutes per night. Through seven games he does have four points but only has four shots. Expect his ice time and production to dry up especially as the team gets Zajac and Elias back from recent injuries.
Adam Henrique: While Henrique has had an excellent start to this season and is usually goal-heavy to begin with, he is currently scoring at a better rate (19%) than he should. Expect to see him fall back between last year's rate (18%) and the one from the year before (14%) the rest of the way. That will chop off a goal here and there and carve into his final total.
Travis Zajac: Can a guy playing close to 20 minutes per night with a good history of point production remain this cold for much longer? He is actually shooting more efficiently than last year but has not been shooting often and has been snake-bitten in the assist department. Considering his most frequent linemates are Cammalleri and Jagr, look for Zajac to snap out of it soon or later. He is a good depth option for the months to come.
NY Islanders
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
C |
19 |
8 |
14.8 |
1:42 |
29 |
Hold |
|
|
L |
4 |
0 |
6.1 |
0:03 |
3 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
26 |
8 |
12.5 |
0:09 |
33 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
28 |
7 |
12.4 |
0:08 |
58 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
15 |
3 |
13.4 |
0:46 |
23 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
5 |
2 |
12.8 |
0:00 |
7 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
27 |
11 |
14.4 |
1:34 |
37 |
Buy |
|
|
L |
30 |
12 |
15.2 |
0:17 |
42 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
24 |
7 |
11.9 |
1:21 |
53 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
30 |
5 |
10.5 |
0:08 |
34 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
2 |
0 |
10.6 |
0:10 |
3 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
30 |
24 |
16.4 |
3:40 |
77 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
30 |
17 |
16.7 |
3:01 |
67 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
30 |
27 |
19.7 |
3:57 |
95 |
Buy |
|
|
C |
30 |
20 |
13.9 |
2:08 |
66 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
30 |
27 |
20.3 |
4:05 |
88 |
Buy |
Mikhail Grabovski: Even though Grabovski has received limited minutes on an Islanders club with a lot of depth up front, his ice time is not much different than it was a year ago in Washington. The difference is that last year he was able to be a factor on the power play and shot at a higher percentage. It is reasonable to expect one point every two games moving forward especially once he starts chipping in with the man advantage.
Kyle Okposo: He has been very inconsistent with his scoring over the years including two partial seasons in the last five years where he was on pace for around 10 goals. However, playing next to Tavares this is bound to change. Good things tend to happen to those that slot in on the same line as a superstar.
John Tavares: The only thing that stands out in Tavares' numbers is his lack of assists. Obviously that will change once Okposo begins correcting his shooting percentage which sits at a mere 7.4% currently. When it is all said and done Tavares should once again be above the point-per-game mark.
NY Rangers
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
C |
27 |
24 |
17.9 |
3:06 |
50 |
Sell |
|
|
L |
18 |
7 |
12.0 |
1:25 |
18 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
16 |
5 |
10.7 |
0:03 |
14 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
23 |
1 |
10.0 |
0:04 |
14 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
28 |
12 |
15.4 |
0:07 |
53 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
25 |
11 |
12.0 |
0:13 |
36 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
26 |
13 |
14.8 |
2:00 |
54 |
Buy |
|
|
L |
6 |
0 |
9.7 |
2:13 |
6 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
9 |
4 |
12.0 |
0:35 |
19 |
Gamble |
|
|
C |
28 |
10 |
14.1 |
0:04 |
37 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
7 |
2 |
10.1 |
1:53 |
10 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
28 |
31 |
17.3 |
2:59 |
96 |
Sell |
|
|
R |
28 |
22 |
18.1 |
3:10 |
58 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
25 |
11 |
14.0 |
1:52 |
53 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
16 |
14 |
18.2 |
3:15 |
36 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
26 |
14 |
17.0 |
2:05 |
53 |
Buy |
Derick Brassard: The upcoming regression in Brassard's production can be broken down into two factors: his own shooting percentage and frequent linemate Nash's shooting percentage (see below). Brassard is currently shooting at a rate of 16% which is high. He will still be a good player but do not expect the same frequency of points.
1:55
52
Buy
C
28
1
8.5
0:07
18
Waive
C
29
22
16.8
2:54
55
Sell
R
29
21
17.2
3:25
79
Hold
C
29
5
13.8
1:00
31
Waive
C
21
3
8.5
0:04
20
Waive
R
29
37
18.4
3:31
89
Hold*
Matt Read: Read's versatility has landed him primarily in a depth role this year. That, combined with an all-time-low 5.8% shooting (usually up around 15%) have turned his season into a disaster. It can only go up from here. Adding in a few goals could turn him into a player that scores one point every two games moving forward.
Brayden Schenn: It looks like Schenn will post a new career-high in points this year. Unfortunately, he is not shooting as frequently this year and has benefited from a lucky 16% shooting. Look for Schenn to revert to a scoring clip closer to his 41-point self from a year ago unless he can manage to start getting more pucks on net.
Jakub Voracek: Even though he is listed as "hold" he deserves specific mention. Despite the red-hot start, there are not any outliers in his shooting numbers and playing next to superstar Claude Giroux as often as he does certainly helps. Plus, he has shown signs of this level of play in the lockout-shortened season when he had 46 points in 48 contests. So while he may slow down, it is very possible that Voracek is simply a new star.
Pittsburgh
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
R |
29 |
4 |
9.2 |
0:03 |
23 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
7 |
3 |
12.2 |
0:16 |
11 |
Sell |
|
|
L |
28 |
18 |
15.2 |
0:49 |
57 |
Sell |
|
|
C |
27 |
35 |
19.3 |
3:33 |
77 |
Buy |
|
|
R |
29 |
13 |
12.8 |
1:38 |
39 |
Hold |
|
|
L |
16 |
11 |
16.4 |
1:47 |
44 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
7 |
1 |
9.2 |
0:06 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
1 |
0 |
5.1 |
0:00 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
27 |
2 |
11.6 |
0:29 |
25 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
27 |
25 |
17.9 |
3:23 |
96 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
4 |
2 |
11.6 |
0:01 |
2 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
23 |
20 |
18.1 |
3:23 |
53 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
29 |
36 |
18.9 |
3:42 |
83 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
9 |
1 |
11.0 |
0:02 |
11 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
1 |
0 |
5.6 |
0:00 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
25 |
0 |
6.7 |
0:03 |
12 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
29 |
11 |
15.3 |
0:10 |
30 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
29 |
13 |
18.1 |
1:50 |
62 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
1 |
0 |
4.4 |
0:00 |
0 |
Waive |
Beau Bennett: If you own Bennett in a one-year league, wait until he returns from his latest ailment and try to sell him. Someone might have faith in him producing. The fact that he cannot stay healthy sticks out like a sore thumb.
Blake Comeau: A great story this year, Comeau is playing a bit over his head. His current shooting percentage of 17.5% is unsustainable. Plus the eventual return of Chris Kunitz and possible acquisition of a top-six forward will not help.
Sidney Crosby: Mumps aside, Crosby's trade value may be lower than it is normally. People are used to seeing his name at the top of the scoring chart and that is simply not the case at the moment. He is certainly capable of putting up more goals than his nine (11.5% vs career mark of 14.6%). Additionally, he has proven over the years that he is more capable than anyone of maintaining his scoring pace over the long haul.
Tampa Bay
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
R |
2 |
0 |
9.5 |
0:00 |
0 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
31 |
9 |
12.5 |
0:08 |
50 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
23 |
4 |
11.7 |
0:04 |
31 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
26 |
23 |
18.4 |
3:31 |
71 |
Sell |
|
|
R |
19 |
5 |
12.2 |
2:02 |
32 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
22 |
11 |
12.8 |
1:25 |
22 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
31 |
22 |
18.7 |
3:39 |
47 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
31 |
30 |
17.0 |
1:55 |
81 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
23 |
14 |
15.7 |
1:39 |
36 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
31 |
26 |
13.7 |
1:42 |
71 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
1 |
0 |
12.5 |
0:42 |
1 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
28 |
4 |
9.8 |
0:14 |
13 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
23 |
7 |
11.6 |
0:50 |
28 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
29 |
19 |
17.5 |
2:06 |
54 |
Buy |
|
|
C |
21 |
6 |
12.0 |
0:06 |
33 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
31 |
34 |
19.8 |
3:41 |
101 |
Hold |
Ryan Callahan: Callahan is enjoying a lot of success in his first full season in Tampa primarily due to an elevated shooting percentage. It would be very reasonable to expect a slower goal-scoring rate down th stretch. Beyond that, Callahan also has a long history of injuries which has always hurt his fantasy value.
Ondrej Palat: The only thing standing in the way of Palat repeating his incredible rookie season is his lack of production on the power play. He is still getting two minutes per game so the points will come. He should land close to the 60-point mark by the end of the year.
Toronto
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
R |
3 |
0 |
6.2 |
0:00 |
3 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
9 |
1 |
9.5 |
0:01 |
6 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
30 |
25 |
18.5 |
3:26 |
69 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
5 |
0 |
5.9 |
0:00 |
3 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
30 |
11 |
14.7 |
2:11 |
55 |
Sell |
|
|
R |
6 |
0 |
6.8 |
0:02 |
3 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
30 |
12 |
14.0 |
0:57 |
39 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
30 |
19 |
16.7 |
2:33 |
71 |
Buy |
|
|
C |
30 |
31 |
18.1 |
3:42 |
96 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
23 |
16 |
15.5 |
0:08 |
34 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
6 |
1 |
8.3 |
0:01 |
2 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
8 |
1 |
7.7 |
0:07 |
10 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
18 |
11 |
16.1 |
2:20 |
43 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
27 |
7 |
8.5 |
0:05 |
23 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
30 |
22 |
14.1 |
0:21 |
51 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
15 |
2 |
9.1 |
0:04 |
5 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
30 |
26 |
19.1 |
3:31 |
97 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
28 |
12 |
15.8 |
0:01 |
34 |
Waive |
David Clarkson: While his goal totals and shooting percentage are more respectable this year, his point totals have always left a lot to be desired save for a couple seasons. His 11 points with just one on the power play are disappointing considering he gets more than two power play minutes per night.
Nazem Kadri: Kadri is off to a solid start with 19 points in 30 games. Unfortunately, he only has two power play points after getting 18 last year. Expect an increase in this area which will surely help his final numbers.
Washington
|
Name |
Pos |
GP |
Pts |
TOI |
PPTOI |
Shots |
Status |
|
C |
29 |
30 |
20.3 |
2:56 |
55 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
24 |
6 |
12.8 |
0:02 |
37 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
29 |
14 |
17.5 |
2:52 |
63 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
5 |
1 |
6.2 |
0:00 |
4 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
26 |
13 |
12.6 |
1:14 |
32 |
Hold |
|
|
L |
28 |
6 |
14.0 |
0:05 |
37 |
Waive |
|
|
R |
26 |
10 |
14.3 |
0:15 |
55 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
29 |
18 |
15.8 |
2:53 |
57 |
Hold |
|
|
C |
27 |
11 |
11.3 |
1:19 |
37 |
Buy |
|
|
C |
14 |
5 |
14.9 |
0:24 |
24 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
21 |
2 |
8.6 |
0:01 |
10 |
Waive |
|
|
C |
13 |
2 |
7.3 |
0:00 |
16 |
Waive |
|
|
L |
29 |
25 |
20.0 |
3:32 |
135 |
Buy |
|
|
R |
29 |
16 |
17.3 |
1:27 |
52 |
Hold |
|
|
R |
19 |
9 |
13.2 |
0:02 |
28 |
Hold |
Evgeny Kuznetsov: Sometimes rookies need some time to adjust to the NHL game before they can produce consistently. After a slow start Kuznetsov is finding the score sheet with five points in his last seven games. Do not expect monster numbers this year but he should be a good fantasy depth forward at the very least.
Alex Ovechkin: Ovy's numbers so far are pretty underwhelming and there are some factors that could play into a points increase moving forward. First, Ovechkin is shooting about 2% lower than his career average which is actually significant for such a high-volume shooter. Also, he only has nine power play points (despite the top-ranked power play in the league) after putting up a combined 66 in 126 games since the lockout ended. He has been a frustrating player to own over the years and a GM using emotion to cast judgment might let Ovechkin go for less than his worth.
*
| Real or Imagined – Forwards (2014) | |||
| Real or Imagined – Defensemen (2014) | |||
| Real or Imagined – Goalies (2014) | |||
| Eastern Conference – Real or Imagined – Forwards (2014) |
*
Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.
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